Nvidia reported a financial forecast for its fiscal third quarter without factoring in any data center compute revenue from mainland China. However, an upcoming White House summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could alter market expectations for the chipmaker’s multibillion-dollar addressable market.
Nvidia guided for $108.0 billion in fiscal third-quarter revenue in late August. That projection carried a notable caveat in the footnotes: the company is not assuming any Data Center compute revenue from China
in its outlook. To hit that target, the firm must grow roughly 89% from the prior-year quarter’s $57.0 billion, relying entirely on markets outside the world’s second-largest economy.
That zero-China assumption stems from strict export controls and local regulatory hurdles that have effectively frozen the company out of mainland data center sales. Yet market focus has shifted sharply to Washington, where political leaders and top technology executives are gathering for high-level trade discussions.
The White House Summit and the China AI Stake
On Thursday, September 24, President Donald Trump hosts Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House. Artificial intelligence sits among the primary topics on the official agenda, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected to attend the state dinner that night. Investors are watching closely to see if the diplomatic meeting yields an agreement on AI technology that unblocks chip shipments to China.
Nvidia views China as a massive addressable market for its hardware. Analysts at KeyBanc, led by John Vinh, estimate that Chinese tech giants would happily buy about 1.5 million H200 chips if given official clearance. That order volume alone would translate into nearly $30 billion in new revenue for the company.
Despite the high stakes, trade experts urge caution regarding immediate policy shifts. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated following a preparatory meeting in New York that export controls on advanced AI chips were not on the agenda for the scheduled AI safety talks. Market observers note that easing semiconductor restrictions remains a difficult political hurdle.
Export Rules, Tariffs, and Beijing’s Domestic Push
The current impasse is shaped by regulatory actions from both Washington and Beijing. In April 2025, the U.S. government informed Nvidia that it required a license to export even its H20 chip, a product designed specifically for the Chinese market, prompting the company to take a $4.5 billion charge. By October, Huang noted that Nvidia’s share of China’s AI chip market had dropped from roughly 95% to zero.
Although the U.S. began issuing licenses in February permitting small quantities of H200 chips to specific customers, sales remained depressed. Beijing limited major purchases, pushing local tech firms to rely more heavily on homegrown suppliers. Furthermore, each H200 cleared for export requires a U.S. inspection and carries a 25% tariff that Nvidia has been unable to pass along to buyers.
Logistics have begun to move incrementally. ByteDance and Tencent reportedly took delivery of roughly 10,000 H200 units apiece during the summer. Even so, the company acknowledges it cannot deliver a competitive data center product for broad distribution under current dual-government rules.
Financial Strength Without the World’s Second-Largest Economy
Nvidia’s position in global AI infrastructure means its financial growth has barely missed a beat despite the mainland restrictions. During the fiscal 2027 second quarter, which ended July 26, revenue rose 106% year over year to hit $96.2 billion. The data center business contributed $89.0 billion of that total, representing a 117% increase from the previous year.
The company billed $7.9 billion to customers headquartered in China, including Hong Kong, during the quarter—making up about 8% of overall revenue. However, those billings stemmed almost entirely from products unrestricted by export rules, such as gaming and workstation chips, while shipments of H200 chips accounted for under 1% of data center revenue.
Corporate insiders continue scheduled transactions amid the market attention. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress sold 34,918 shares on September 17, pulling in about $7.65 million under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan.