The IDF gains time from the nuclear agreement

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At last light they began to take off one by one – about 90 Air Force fighter jets, of all types and bases – and flew west toward the sea, and above it gathered into attack structures. At the same time, refueling planes, electronic warfare and warning and rescue helicopters with fighters from the 669th Rescue Unit also took off.

They flew south to Cyprus, then circled the island to the right and returned to the country – where they were given unknown targets for attack all over Israel. Each quartet was given targets according to the types of armament they carried with them. During the attack, several anti-aircraft missiles were shot down, and the fighters of the rescue unit landed to rescue the pilots. The rest of the planes made their way back again in a round of Cyprus and landed in Israel.

This was the largest simulation conducted by the Air Force to attack Iran since 2012, nine years ago. The attack destroyed many components of Iran’s nuclear program, both above ground and below ground. The Qum enrichment facility, built tens of meters deep inside a rock, is a challenge that it is doubtful our air force can significantly harm.

Exercise “Beyond the Horizon” (Photo: IDF Spokesman)
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There are parts of the Iranian nuclear program whose treatment will not come from the air. Air Force and Armed Forces performance research experts have previously estimated that such a broad-based attack could delay Iran’s nuclear program by up to 18 months. : A delay of about five months in the nuclear program.

Planes and bombs can damage physical infrastructure but do not take the knowledge that the Iranians have already accumulated, so the question after each attack will be: how long will it take them to rebuild and further the damaged infrastructure. The answer will always be: too little. Iran has accumulated all the knowledge required for the rapid production of fissile material for the bomb, it has the knowledge to manufacture ballistic missiles that will carry the bomb at their head, and it still lacks the knowledge to build the nuclear facility itself.

The knowledge she has already gained – no attack will take.

In recent weeks, the media has dealt with the gap in views between senior members of the defense establishment about the advantage or disadvantage of having a back to nuclear agreement with Iran. This discussion is just as important as it is interesting to hear the views of senior defense officials on the weather – maybe someone will find it interesting, but it is a meaningless discussion.

The United States is eager to reach an agreement with Iran, and may even compromise on removing the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorist organizations. Iran pretends to be indifferent, but when you see what is happening on the streets of Iran and its economy Poor and disgraceful given the balance of power between the parties, but it will buy Israel a nine-year delay in producing the scoring material in Iran, and it is a long time to prepare for the day after.

Emergency meeting between Iran and the powers over the nuclear deal (Photo: Reuters)Emergency meeting between Iran and the powers over the nuclear deal (Photo: Reuters)

Biden’s Gospel

Despite the limited results expected for Israeli military action – the Air Force takes the directive to rebuild this option very seriously. But looking at the number of aircraft that participated in the simulation this week – refueling aircraft aged 50 and over, fighter jets some 40 years old, not to mention the storm helicopters – it is hard not to wonder how the Air Force got itself into a situation where much of its fleet is about to end its life.

Over the years, the Air Force has been able to separate the attention between dealing with what is urgent and investing in what is important, between today’s operations and tomorrow’s power building. Precisely in the last decade, in which the Air Force has dramatically incorporated the capabilities of the existing force, it seems that they have lingered there in the future power building. Decisions on procurement plans have been slow, even though in this decade Israel has enjoyed unprecedented American military assistance.

The Air Force claims for mitigating circumstances: for more than two years there has been no functioning government here, but these are already arguments for punishment. The delay in deciding on the refueling planes, on which the agreement has not yet been signed, has already ruled that the two new refueling planes of the KC-46 type will only arrive here in 2026. The ongoing debate over the purchase of state-of-the-art 15F EX aircraft will lead to the arrival of these much-needed aircraft to the Air Force by the end of the decade. As it turns out, Egypt will get the latest 15F ahead of us.

Joe Biden (Photo: REUTERS / Evelyn Hockstein)Joe Biden (Photo: REUTERS / Evelyn Hockstein)

In Israel, they are now building on the kindness of the intruder. Towards the end of the month, the American president will arrive here, and Israel intends to ask him for a “package of exchanges” – what will Israel receive if a new nuclear agreement is signed. Among other things, we intend to ask to advance our queue at the production lines of the aircraft so that we can anticipate their receipt.

There is no guarantee that President Biden will be open to such gestures at the moment, when negotiations on the nuclear deal are not progressing. , And not visible relations, but next week is expected to be a milestone in the history of Israel’s relations with the kingdom entrusted to the holy of holies.

The writer is the military commentator for News 13.

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