Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin (69) had imagined the invasion of Ukraine very differently. Send troops, a few days of war – and the country would be defeated. But his plan didn’t work out. Ultimately, the Russian President had to realize that he couldn’t take all of Ukraine in a few weeks. So he put the focus on eastern Ukraine.
After initial difficulties, the new tactic for Russia now seems to be working. The attackers already control 97 percent of Luhansk province. The fighting is still concentrated in a “pot” of 40 by 40 kilometers. The cities of Artemivsk, Popasna, Seversk and Sievjerodonetsk form the key cornerstones.
Military strategist Markus Reisner (44) believes that the battle for Sievjerodonetsk in particular will be decisive. “If something drastic doesn’t happen, the Russians will manage to close the pocket,” says the colonel in the Austrian Ministry of Defense in an interview with the «Welt».
Violent attacks at night
Reisner blames three tactics that Putin’s fighters are now using for Russia’s success in eastern Ukraine.
First: Heavy artillery fire, bombs and rockets are fired at the Ukrainian positions at night. The next morning the infantry, protected by tanks, advance to the positions.
“If the Russians then succeed in destroying the Ukrainian positions at a single point – as they did recently in the area around the town of Popasna – they use this as a point of entry,” explains Reisner. The attackers then break in there and try to kill the Ukrainians in the trenches.
Second, Russia uses ballistic missile systems like Iskander-M. “They fly up to 500 kilometers and destroy weapons stores, fuel depots, but also barracks and the Ukrainian command structure,” says Reisner about the missiles. “It’s devastating.”
Sophisticated Luftwaffe tactics
According to the military strategist, Russia recently moved an Iskander brigade to Belgorod near the Ukrainian border. Since then, rockets and cruise missiles have repeatedly been fired into the pocket near Kramatorsk or Slowjansk.
50 km range: Russians demonstrate firepower of tank artillery(01:13)
Third, even though Russia does not have air supremacy in Ukraine, the invaders are exploiting their superior air force.
Colonel Reisner explains: “The tactic is that the Russian planes or helicopters fly very low over the ground and appear completely unexpectedly, so that the Ukrainian soldiers only notice them very late. The planes come in at low altitude and then drop the bombs as they climb up.”
Gloomy outlook for eastern Ukraine
As a result, Russia has already been able to record large territorial gains. “Up until now 25 percent of Ukraine,” specifies Markus Reisner. According to him, the solution against the advance would be western arms deliveries. But these had “started much too late, and that’s why the heavy weapons are no longer reaching their destination in time”.
Things are looking bad for eastern Ukraine at the moment. Reisner believes that the Russians want to control the entire Donbass by early autumn. After that, a ceasefire would be conceivable. “I expect that both sides will try to launch an offensive next spring.” (obf)