His place on the yellow sofa remained empty, but everyone thinks only of him. Taken by his new duties as minister, Stanislas Guerini could not come to the debate between candidates organized on 1is June in the garden of a social center in the 17e arrondissement of Paris by Sytteen, an integration association. “He is taking part in a ceremony at the Invalides with the President of the Republic, justifies his substitute, the lawyer Caroline Yadan. But if the voters trust us again, he will remain minister, and it is I who will sit in the Assembly. » An insufficient excuse in the eyes of Léa Balage El Mariky, the young ecologist invested by the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes). “Apparently, Stanislas Guerini has better things to do than talk to the citizens of this constituency”, she says, determined to bring down this deputy who has become a symbol of macronism.
Barely arrived in government, will Stanislas Guerini have to leave, in accordance with the fate planned by Emmanuel Macron for his beaten ministers? On paper, nothing is won for the leader of La République en Marche (LRM) in the 3e constituency in the north of Paris, straddling the 17e et 18e boroughs. Undoubtedly the one whose result is the most undecided of the whole capital.
In 2017, carried by the Macronist wave, this former Strauss-Kahnien entered the National Assembly by beating his right-wing competitor, Valérie Nahmias. He won 45.1% of the vote in the first round, and 65.5% in the second. But since then the political landscape has changed. Macronie slowly shifted to the right. As for Stanislas Guerini, he has become head of the presidential party, and has just been appointed minister of the civil service. So much so that at 40 he no longer embodies the young center-left guard determined to modernize the country, but rather a power in place marked in the center right, a new avatar of the Orléanist and liberal right.
« Swing state »
In addition, his clumsy defense of Jérôme Peyrat left its mark. “He is an honest man, I do not believe him capable of violence against women”, declared Stanislas Guerini, on May 18, to support the majority candidate in the Dordogne, convicted of domestic violence and, since, dismissed. At Porte Pouchet, on a wall near the center where the debate is taking place, anonymous feminists have pasted a clear message: “For Stanislas Guerini, a rapist is an honest man. »
Can this leader again seduce the 70,000 voters in his constituency who, before him, had elected a socialist deputy three times in a row? In the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron gathered 37% of the votes on the spot, a score slightly higher than his Parisian average. The left won 44.9% of the vote. The rest of the votes were essentially shared between Valérie Pécresse (6%) and the extreme right (11.9%). This young constituency, where half the population is under 35, is therefore a test. A kind of swing state that the left like LRM can win. The candidates must attract both the inhabitants of the HLM located along the ring road, the bourgeois of the Batignolles and the population in full renewal of the Epinettes.
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