On Wednesday this week, the people sitting in Zion arose for a political news that Justice Minister Gideon Saar is conducting secret contacts with Likud members, with the possibility of overthrowing the current government and forming an alternative government becoming the new Netanyahu government being examined in the background.
The people opened archives blown up by Saar’s statements against Netanyahu. The same storm that formed his party over Netanyahu’s built-in contrast, the same Gideon who went all the way in the elections and after them under the slogan “in no scenario will I sit in a government headed by Netanyahu.” And here is the man having contacts with Netanyahu’s emissaries? We were like dreamers. Admittedly, the people sitting (and voting) in Zion have seen quite a bit in their lives, including Naftali Bennett’s signature live that he will not allow Yair Lapid to serve as prime minister, and is still a bit shocked by the exposure.
To be honest, it should be noted that not for 100% of the people was this sensational news in the real news. Out of the 9.507 million citizens who inhabit the country there were some who were much less shocked. A handful of politicians and media people were not surprised at all. This is because they closely followed the moves in the Likud arena, a new corner of hope, and knew that the moves were not born yesterday, but developed over months. Another group, which was also not surprised, although shocked by the leak, was composed of Likud members and a new hope – who themselves developed, nurtured and managed the project “Testing the Feasibility of Joining an Assault to a Netanyahu-led government.”
For the sake of good order, we will flow with the main protagonists of the story. We will not define what has happened behind the scenes in weeks and even in recent months as “negotiations.” We will use the term fur “conversations”. As Saar himself said in a round of interviews on Wednesday evening: “There is no and there has been no negotiation. But everyone talks to everyone, because that’s how it is in politics.”
So “everyone talks to everyone,” as he puts it, began much earlier, deep underwater. It all started with completely theoretical assessments that came up in various circles of Likud members, in the most private and non-binding conversations we often had between Likud members and New Hope (which until two years ago were also Likud members).
In fact, the idea of ”bringing Gideon” first arose in Netanyahu’s entourage a few weeks after the formation of the Bennett-Lapid government. Even then, the best minds in the Likud dealt with the question “how to overthrow the government, and who will be the elements who will be willing to sit in the government with Bibi.”
At the time, in terms of the level of feasibility, the idea of ”bringing Gideon” sounded as logical as the idea of ”bringing the green alien.” What’s more, the “faction of election supporters,” consisting of some of Netanyahu’s associates and led, among others, by Yariv Levin, expressed opposition to the idea. Proponents of her case have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online. “
In contrast, the people of the “alternative government camp” insisted that elections are always a risk, and it is better to invest in the formation of an alternative government that is completely achievable.
“Ayelet is scared”
And what did Netanyahu himself think of both options? As usual, he moved between the two opinions according to the political happenings, plus the option to settle the argument in the background. Those who spoke with Netanyahu a month ago are sure that “Bibi only wants elections,” and those who spoke with him two weeks ago were under the impression that “Bibi is building strongly on the alternative government.” In practice, Netanyahu activated both groups and allowed his men to act in parallel.
The “Supporters’ faction” constantly worked to bring in defectors and form a majority in favor of a law to dissolve the Knesset. At the same time, supporters of the “alternative government camp” worked no less hard against members of the right-wing wing within the coalition. Their original idea (which changed along the way according to changes in reality) was to operate in two stages. “First we will bring the parts to the right, then we will thaw and prepare the ground for Gideon, which is a difficult story.
The Likud claims that for many weeks a lot of effort has been invested in talks with Ayelet Shaked. Shaked never hid that the current coalition was not doing her any good, and she would have preferred a more right-wing and homogeneous government. The Likud members who spoke with her claim that they were impressed by those conversations that “Ayelet prefers an alternative government over elections. If that happens, she will receive a ministerial portfolio and will not want armor in the Likud for herself, as is commonly thought. “Idit Silman will be able to get armor on the Likud list, as was discussed with her in the talks that preceded her retirement.”
It will be recalled that Silman herself denied on every stage and in every interview that she was promised something on behalf of the Likud, and claimed that she withdrew from the coalition for ideological reasons and not in exchange for such and such promises. One way or another, with or without denials, the talks that took place between Likud members and Shaked did not lead to actual actions and remained a matter of exploration.
According to Likud members, “the story with Shaked is stuck at this very stage.” According to their grand plan, the right-wing trio was to do the act of Nachshon ben Aminadav and pave the way for real negotiations with a new hope. “The right will disintegrate against an ideological background – which will allow Saar to come to the public and explain to his constituents that after the super-effort he made for the benefit of the state and the government, it disintegrated anyway and changed the situation completely.
Therefore, in order to save the country from returning to the relentless election loop, a new hope sees fit to lend a hand in forming an alternative government, even at the cost of returning Netanyahu to Balfour. “The national interest is above any other interest, including Saar’s personal interest in maintaining the reputation that will collapse to pieces if, after all, he sits in the Netanyahu government.”
Time passed, and Shaked did not act. To those who asked her, she was careful to answer that “we have done a lot, and there is a lot more to do, we are not going anywhere.” The Likud saw this with a less favorable eye. “Coward,” they called her. The “election faction” was happy and rejoiced and claimed to Netanyahu that “nothing works out with the alternative government. Ayelet is not coming, Gideon is.
“More elections? Disaster”
Here came a turning point, after which a change was recorded in the line led by Saar and his men. About two months ago, Likud members from the “alternative government camp” identified a surprising and encouraging softening. At the same time, the political reporters, who are having a constant and fruitful behind-the-scenes dialogue with the politicians, have identified what is known as “off-record,” a suspicious silence among people of new hope. Party members, including Zeev Elkin and other members, narrowed their ties with reporters. They continued to be interviewed and performed in various doses, but “off-the-record conversations” dwindled and were sometimes stopped altogether.
“Elkin’s silence is a sign that something is brewing there in closed rooms,” the veterans among the reporters claimed, and they seem to know what they are talking about. The party, the faction and those around Saar and Elkin were careful to deny it. “Nothing happens, everything spins,” was a sweeping answer to any question regarding rumors about the secret contacts between New Hope and Netanyahu’s people.
According to Likud sources involved in the silent contacts, the “everyone talks to everyone” talks took place on several parallel channels. One of them is the direct and discreet channel that ran between Saar and Yaakov Atrakchi – Netanyahu’s secret man, who at the time was very close to Saar. This week this channel was damaged after it was exposed in the media. The “alternative government camp” is sure that those who took care to leak the contacts between Atrakchi and Saar were opposed to the move from the Likud’s “election faction.” However, the vast majority of those involved in efforts to form an alternative government are confident that the channel has not suffered a fatal blow.
Jacob Atrakchi. Netanyahu’s secret man (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)According to Likud sources who are familiar with the content of the contacts in those parallel channels, the talks touched on a variety of issues, including possible cases that Saar and his people could accept in the alternative government, if established. According to the same sources, “Netanyahu is interested in the justice case for Yariv Levin, while Saar sees Zeev Elkin as justice minister.” All this with one significant reservation: if Saar decides to go that route. For now, he’s not there yet.
What greatly encouraged the members of the “alternative government camp” took place not on Wednesday this week, but about two weeks earlier, when Saar was interviewed for News 12.
The first point: the Minister of Justice spoke very clearly and sharply against the possibility of another round of elections. “Going to another election would be a disaster for the country,” he stated.
The second point: When the conversation touched on the possibility of forming an alternative government without dispersing the Knesset, Saar said that he would “prefer national consideration over any other consideration, including personal consideration.”
“We heard and knew straight away that it was moving in the desired direction,” Likud officials say. “Two weeks before the leak and before the storm, we received a signal that Gideon was apparently considering an independent move. Without building on the steps of right-wingers, which did not happen and are unlikely to ever happen. Obviously, “Emotionally, both in front of his audience and in front of those from the media who supported him and encouraged him precisely because he came out against Netanyahu and made sure to keep his word that he would not cooperate with him.
Jumping over an abyss
The next day that Channel 12 interview, Saar and Elkin Reverse did a dramatic public. Elkin, unusually, launched a scathing attack on Netanyahu. Saar himself also attacked the opposition leader in an unusual way. Although the two attacks were relevant, they were so sharp and conspicuous that many bought them and concluded from Saar and Elkin that “there will be nothing because there was nothing.” No contacts, no softening of positions. , Not a chance for an alternative government. The limited handful of “alternative government camps” within the Likud sent a completely opposite message.
Minister Zeev Elkin (Photo: Yonatan Zindel, Flash 90)According to sources in the coalition, at that time, in mid-May, a decision in principle was made to put the government to the test of “extending the emergency regulations in Judea and Samaria.” An issue of national importance that if and when it passes, will be considered a notable achievement of Gideon Saar the leader. If the extension of the regulations falls because the RAAM will not be able to absorb the incident and vote in favor, in terms of storm this will be a reason to overthrow the government.
Accordingly, the Minister of Justice sharpened the tones. After the vote on the extension of the regulations was postponed for a week, he issued a statement that sounded unequivocal as a warning on the verge of a statement of intent: the transfer of the extension of the regulations would be the test for the coalition. “There are things that the government can live without, but this is a legal arrangement that regulates the legal reality in Judea and Samaria since the Six Day War, and it must pass by the end of June,” Saar ruled.
The coalition and the opposition received the message in the same way. To Saar’s members of the coalition, his warning completed the puzzle. Opposition figures, especially those who were in some way partners in the talks, understood that the move was motivated. This still does not mean that Gideon Saar has matured for a jump over the abyss, but certainly indicates ground training for any possible scenario.
If the coalition internalizes the size of the event and knows how to do magic and make the thunderous support, the ball will roll in Edith Silman’s place. Only if Silman joins the coalition and votes for it will the regulations be approved. Silman tends not to vote with the coalition, even if the vote becomes a vote of confidence and opposition to such a vote would be the price of a right-wing faction issue.
If that happens and regulations, which Saar says are a national necessity, will not pass, who will be able to argue with the justice minister when he gets up and determines that the government has not passed the existential test. And if the situation has changed, it is not inconceivable that his position on the dysfunctional coalition may change accordingly.
All answers were given by Saar twice. In short – in an interview on Channel 12 in May. In detail – last Wednesday, in a round of interviews he gave in response to reports about the conversations with Yaakov Atrakchi.
In the few days left to the “existence test” of the government, each side will make its own calculations. First and foremost – Gideon Saar himself must make decisions for the rest of the way. Both the government and Saar are now facing a significant political test, and for the time being it is not possible to assess how it will end and what grades will be distributed at the end.