The candidates of the macronie arrived mainly in the lead on Sunday in the votes of the French people living abroad in the 1st round of the legislative elections. With the notable exception of Manuel Valls, eliminated in the first round.
“I take note of the results (…) If dissent and division have sown confusion, I cannot ignore my score and the fact that my candidacy did not convince”, declared the former Prime Minister on Twitter, even before the official results were published by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and in reference to outgoing MP and dissident candidate Stéphane Vojetta, who came 2nd.
“It is up to me lucidly to draw the consequences”, he wrote, before calling to block in the second round the candidate of the Nupes, Renaud Le Berre, who came first in this fifth constituency of the French from abroad, which includes Spain, Portugal, Monaco and Andorra and has approximately 120,000 registered voters.
Several members of Nupes and in particular of LFI immediately rejoiced at the news, relaying on Twitter, like the number 2 of LFI Adrien Quatennens, a photo of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other parliamentarians brandishing “Good riddance” signs. .
Son-Forget eliminated
In the eleven constituencies of French people living abroad, the Nupes managed to place its candidates in the lead in two of them, and to take second place almost everywhere, with the exception of the 8th constituency which includes French people living in eight countries around the Mediterranean, including Italy and Israel. In this constituency, the incumbent Meyer Habib, candidate of the UDI, came first.
In the 1st constituency, which brings together the French of North America, Roland Lescure, outgoing deputy of macronie, came first, but he is closely followed by the candidate of Nupes, Florence Roger.
In the 6th (Switzerland), the outgoing deputy, Joachim Son-Forget, elected in 2017 for the Republic on the move, was eliminated. Breaking with his party and at the center of multiple controversies, he was largely dismissed by voters in favor of Marc Ferracci, an economist close to President Emmanuel Macron.
The Polynesians, who voted on Saturday, also placed in the lead the candidates invested by the presidential majority in the first (Nicole Bouteau, 41.9%) and the second constituency (Tepuaraurii Teriitahi, 33.2%). In the third constituency, on the other hand, it was the outgoing Moetai Brotherson, who sat with the Communists in the Assembly, who came out on top (34.2%), two points ahead of the Macronist candidate.
“The concern is there” among the macronists
Even more than in the presidential election, abstention, expected at a record level for a first round of legislative elections (52 or 53% according to the polls against 51.3% in 2017), should play a key role in the ballot of the 12 and June 19.
French people living abroad seem to have mobilized more than in 2017 when the participation rate reached 19.1%, according to provisional figures.
The abstention of young people and the working classes could benefit the current majority, which relies on an older and more affluent electorate than that of the RN or the Nupes, believe specialists.
But “the concern is there” among the macronists, explained Sunday evening on LCI the pollster Frédéric Dabi (Ifop) because “there are hypotheses which would give relative majorities” to the camp of Emmanuel Macron, below the absolute majority of 289 seats.
It would be ahead of the Nupes (LFI, EELV, PS, PC) around Jean-Luc Mélenchon which could reach between 170 and 205 seats, ahead of LR (35 to 55 deputies) and the RN (20 to 50 seats), according to Ifop . But “the scenario of an absolute majority for the Nupes is for the moment excluded”, according to Frédéric Dabi.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon still wants to believe in a victory which would then force Emmanuel Macron to appoint him Prime Minister, even if the president recalled that he had the prerogative to choose his head of government, even in cohabitation. “It is useless to pay for an institutional crisis in addition,” quipped the rebellious on LCI on Sunday.
“Do not scatter their voices”
On the far right, Marine Le Pen, campaigning in Pas-de-Calais, wanted to mobilize her troops, assuring them that there was “still time to prevent Macron from having all the powers” and to “defeat the curse of an unfair voting system, which keeps a worm-eaten system in place”. The presidential finalist (41.5% in the second round) had remained quite discreet until then. Ms Le Pen has since revised her targets upwards and called on her supporters to “give her 100 to 150 deputies”.
In a video message published on Sunday morning, the far-right leader had called, alongside party president Jordan Bardella, to “go vote”. The day before, he had already conjured “the patriots” to “not disperse their voices”, in the midst of a fratricidal war with the camp of Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!).
The latter was also beaten by one of his former “friends”, the mayor of Béziers Robert Ménard, who said on BFMTV “angry, and not half” with the former polemicist, who according to him ” caricatured” their ideas during a “mad furious” campaign which “plays Mélenchon’s game today”.