Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking advantage of the global crisis surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity to squeeze concessions from both Moscow and the West, and is trying to achieve through this leverage some of Turkey’s long-standing goals.
Erdogan is blocking the entry of Sweden and Finland into the NATO alliance, due to their alleged support for Kurdish fighters against whom Turkey is fighting. , Despite US opposition, to launch another military campaign against Kurdish fighters in Syria.
Under Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey assisted Ukraine in sending armed UAVs that became powerful weapons against the Russian invasion, prevented some Russian battleships from entering the Black Sea, and held peace talks. But on the other hand Erdogan decided not to participate in sanctions against Russia. Turkey is a major destination for Russians and Russian money.
Erdogan is today one of the few world leaders who routinely talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a channel the Turkish leader used to push Russia to agree to participate in peace talks.
Works according to an old rule book
Erdogan is following a rulebook he has used several times in more than two decades of public life, leveraging crises into political opportunities, analysts say. His approach focuses on gaining concessions from both authors and enemies, while using his role on the international stage to strengthen his image in Turkey, they said.
“This is typical Erdogan behavior,” said Ilhan Ozgal, a Turkish independent analyst and former chairman of the political science department at Ankara University. “He has become a wizard used at every opportunity to boost his popularity, both in Turkey and in other countries.”
Erdogan has positioned himself as a vital player in the ongoing global crisis since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the process, he angered some European leaders who began to see him more and more as an authoritarian leader and an unreliable ally. These leaders point to the ongoing steps being taken against Erdogan’s political rivals as well as the Turkish refusal to fully join the Western response to the invasion.
“In NATO circles there is still such a feeling that Turkey is only half with us,” said Mark Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey. “No sanctions have been imposed. No flights were canceled. “
Turkish officials reject the idea that Turkey supports the West only partially, pointing out that Turkish forces and Turkish-sponsored forces fought against Russia in a series of wars in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus region. “We are not trying to charm anyone. We are here to protect Turkey’s rights,” said Ilnor Chavik, a senior adviser to Erdogan on foreign policy. “We are not the criminals here.”
Demonstration against Erdogan’s rule in Istanbul, last week / Photo: Reuters, UMIT BEKTAS
Serious danger to Erdogan’s regime
The Russian invasion of Ukraine came at a time when Erdogan was facing a serious threat to his rule since surviving a 2016 military coup attempt.
Turkey is in the midst of an ongoing currency crisis that has largely happened because of Erdogan’s own failed economic management, analysts say. Turkey’s official inflation rate today stands at almost 70%, the highest among the G20 countries and the sixth highest inflation in the world. Independent economists say that the real level of inflation in Turkey is probably higher than 100%.
The crisis has made millions of Turks poorer, eroded Erdogan’s popularity, even among his conservative supporters, and put him at risk of losing the June 2023 election, but the government can also overtake them if it so wishes.
The invasion gave him an opportunity to play the role of a leader on a global scale, and to step out for a moment from the position of the politician accused of being responsible for the economic troubles of his country.
Arbiter TB-2 armed drones became one of the main tools in the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian attack, when Russian armored columns exploded and drowned Russian destroyers. The Turkey is less dependent on the US and Europe.
Turkey has also exercised its right under an international treaty to block the entry of Russian warships into the Black Sea and has hosted two rounds of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. This policy was approved by Western leaders even though Turkey refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia and welcomed the flow of Russian money to it. Turkey, for example, remains one of the few places to which Russians can fly in direct flight.
Erdogan’s conduct has established important ties
The way Erdogan conducted himself at the beginning of the war in Ukraine helped establish broader ties with Western officials, including a phone call from US President Joe Biden. To NATO, thus threatening to dissolve a historic change in European security strategy.
Erdogan has accused the two Nordic countries of supporting Kurdish militias defined by both Turkey and Europe as terrorist organizations. Sweden has accused Turkey of disseminating incorrect information. The two Nordic countries have promised to resolve the conflict through dialogue.
Erdogan is following a long-standing Turkish policy, complaining about the backing provided by Western governments to Kurdish militias in Turkey, which are part of a campaign in the US to support the Islamic State.
The Turkish government is also involved in a growing war against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party – an organization that is considered a terrorist organization in both Turkey and the United States. Turkey recently bombed the organization’s hiding places in northern Iraq.
Fights for the image of the “international leader”
Meanwhile, the Turkish president continues to play a key role in a series of other international crises, including talks with Russia and Ukraine on establishing a safe corridor for food exports in the Black Sea. As part of the proposal, Turkish warships will protect a route for civilian ships carrying grain and other food products – a significant part of the entire world’s inventory – from Ukraine via the Black Sea.
In the end, Erdogan can reap the political benefits of the confrontation with NATO even if he decides to withdraw and accept Sweden’s and Finland’s membership in the alliance and receive only minimal concessions, analysts say. By using the Turkish media he and his party control, he can still portray himself as a leader World-class protecting Turkey’s interests.
“Even if he eventually retires, his audience doesn’t care,” Ozgal said. “That’s the way Erdogan plays it, sometimes very successfully.”