Nothing works. Four days before the first round of the legislative elections, this election is struggling to interest the French. A campaign that ultimately resembles the one that preceded the presidential election, where nothing caught on and where the choice of voters was structured belatedly around the three useful votes – for Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Marine Le Pen – leading to a tripartition of the political landscape.
Thus, the voting intentions in favor of the candidates of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes, bringing together the main left-wing parties) amount to 27.5% (margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 points , up 0.5 points compared to mid-May). The candidacies of the presidential majority (Together!, bringing together La République en Marche – which will become Renaissance after the elections –, MoDem and Horizons), collect 28% of voting intentions (stable figure, same margin of error ). Finally, if we add together the estimated scores of the far-right candidates – National Rally (20%, margin of error of plus or minus 1 point, down one point from the previous wave) and Reconquête! (5.5%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 points, down 0.5 points from mid-May) – we arrive at a total of 25.5%. These three families therefore represent more than 80% of the voting intentions.
These are the main lessons of the twelfth wave of our electoral survey carried out from June 3 to 6 by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for The world. The strength of our panel is due to its amplitude, since the sample used is 10,826 people. Voting intentions are calculated from respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 6,080 people. Result: the margin of error is very low (between 0.2 point and 1.1 point).
Towards a very strong abstention. With a participation index of between 44% and 48% (average weight of 46%, less one point in two weeks), the June 12 election seems to be heading towards a record abstention. As a reminder, in 2017, the participation in the first round of the legislative elections was 48.7% and had never been so low. Similarly, interest in the general election has fallen by four points: 70% of those questioned say they are interested in the election, against 74% two weeks ago. However, caution should be exercised. For the presidential election, the slight upturn in participation took place in the very last hours.
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