Eight triangular in 2022 against only one in 2017, a tsunami of duels Together! facing the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), and candidates from the National Rally (RN) twice as numerous in the second round as five years ago, here are some of the lessons from the first round of the 2022 legislative elections .
In 2022, the left, by uniting in the first round under the Nupes banner, manages to qualify in 385 constituencies for the second round. Eclipsed by La République en Marche (LRM) in the legislative elections in 2017, the left-wing candidates (La France insoumise, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts, French Communist Party and Socialist Party) were only present in 145 of the 572 second rounds.
To better visualize the most frequent confrontation scenarios, and their evolution over the past five years, we have chosen to use the 2017 electoral data by artificially grouping the parties which are now found within the Nupes and Ensemble alliances (LRM and MoDem) .
This year, the most common cause of duel in the second round is between candidates of the centrist party Together! and of the Nupes (in 276 constituencies, against 127 in 2017), whereas five years ago, the most frequent poster opposed a party of the presidential majority (LRM or MoDem) against the Republicans (in 234 of the 573 second rounds). This year, there are only 18 face-to-face encounters between Together! and LR.
Eight triangular in 2022 against only one in 2017
While the 2017 legislative elections only gave rise to a single triangular, between La République en Marche, Les Républicains and the National Front, there are eight potential ones in 2022, despite a higher abstention (52.5% in the national level compared to 51.3% in 2017).
Five of these triangular align candidates Together!, Nupes and National Rally. Two see candidates Together!, LR and Nupes compete. Finally, a single constituency opposes a diverse leftist candidate, a candidate Together! and a Nupes candidate, in the Lot.
Five seats filled in the first round
In 2017, four candidates were elected in the first round; in 2022, there are five. The first announced was Yannick Favennec (Horizons-Ensemble!), elected with 57.13% of the vote in the 3e district of Mayenne. The other four are deputies from Ile-de-France, under the Nupes banner:
- Alexis Corbiere (7e constituency of Seine-Saint-denis), with 62.94% of the vote,
- Sophia Chikirou (6e constituency of Paris), 53.74%,
- Sarah Legrain (16e constituency of Paris), 56.51%,
- Danièle Obono (17e constituency of Paris), 57.07%.
By way of comparison, 36 deputies were elected in the first round in 2012, and there were even 110 in 2007.