You had to have a hollow nose to predict a few months ago that a united left would dispute the first place with the majority in number of votes in the first round of the legislative elections. However, this is what happened on Sunday evening. And if several rebellious personalities have disputed the veracity of the figures revealed by the Ministry of the Interior, it is clear that the Nupes has taken its place in this election and can hope to pose difficulties for the presidential majority to implement its program. .
By snatching this agreement on the left, the leader of the rebellious offered himself a duel with the President of the Republic Emmanuel Macron. The first, but which could also become the last, if participation did not increase in the second round. Especially since in some respects, this first round of legislative elections is not a total success. Explanations.
The end of LREM’s hegemony over French constituencies
Three major forces animated this first round of the legislative elections. If the presidential majority is the party that placed the most candidates in the second round, the Nupes is not left out. The union of the left will be represented in 380 constituencies next Sunday, against 417 for the majority.
From a purely electoral point of view, it is clear that the union of the left has maximized the chances of the invested candidates to qualify for the second round of legislative elections. A competition between the various left-wing parties could have eliminated many candidates in the first round, as was the case in 2017. If we stick to this criterion alone, the union around the Nupes label is therefore an undeniable success. The Insoumis have ensured the constitution of a dense group, while the ecologists, the socialists and the communists see their survival almost guaranteed.
The clear progression of the united left under the Nupes banner
The left managed last Sunday to maintain itself in a majority of constituencies, almost everywhere in France. It remains to convince the voters to bring their votes to the representatives of the Nupes.
By agreeing on a kind of “non-aggression pact”, the Nupes took into account the specificities of the legislative elections, which oblige the candidates to obtain the support of more than 12.5% of the registered voters to hope to qualify. in the second round.
It is still necessary to know if all the allied parties have pulled out of the game or not. To do this, let’s analyze the details of the candidates placed on the ballot for the second round, according to their political sensitivity.
A contrasting result according to the camps united under the Nupes banner
The Nupes agreement, negotiated during the very first days of the legislative campaign, provides for an agreement on the program but also (or above all) on a single candidacy on the left in all of the metropolitan constituencies.
With Nupes, Jean-Luc Mélenchon sought to create the match with Emmanuel Macron. This electoral agreement was to allow the left to increase its electoral potential, and to gather enough votes to overturn the table, impose cohabitation and dislodge Elisabeth Borne from her post as Prime Minister, to install the leader of the Insoumis in Matignon. . What was it really?
Worse than the four main candidates on the left in 90% of cases
To succeed in his bet, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his new allies were required to mobilize as much as possible. The tribune of La France insoumise did not start from scratch, with his 22% obtained in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.
In the first round of the presidential election, the score for left-wing candidates exceeded 30%. On Sunday, the Left Union won 25.66% of the vote, according to official figures from the Interior Ministry.
If he came to titillate the presidential majority, this score shows all the same that politics is not just a question of arithmetic. In reality, the Nupes obtained a worse result than the left in the elections of 2012, 2007, 2002, 1997 and 1993.
Explanation 1: dissidence on the left
The agreement concluded by the Nupes did not please all the left, it is the least that one can say. Within the PS, the response was notably led by Carole Delga in his Occitanie region, former President François Hollande in his Corrèze stronghold, or even Bernard Cazeneuve everywhere in France. Their objective: to push dissident candidacies to advocate the “left of government”, in the face of a Nupes program deemed inapplicable. Green dissidents or even LFI have also launched themselves.
The dissident candidacies had a good impact on the scores of the candidates invested by Nupes. But it can not be the only explanation for this ceiling of 25% of the score of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. There is another, perhaps even more obvious: abstention.
Explication 2 : l’abstention
Abstention had never been so high in the country under the Fifth Republic. Last Sunday, the majority of registered voters chose not to go to their polling station. The French are increasingly moving away from the polls despite the many calls to vote from the left. The result is clear: the united left has lost a very large number of votes compared to the presidential election.
If he intends to create a surprise next Sunday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon knows that he has almost only one lever of action. In the absence of a reservoir of votes linked to the fact that the left is already united, he can only count on a remobilization of abstainers.
He understood it perfectly. “There were 25 million abstentionists on Sunday (June 12). If people loved this power, they would have run to vote for the presidential majority, he explains in an interview with Le Parisien. If they had been afraid that I would pick their pockets, as we told them, they would have voted against us. I don’t have certainty but I have no reason to doubt. »
Explanation 3: the mistrust of the moderate left vis-à-vis Mélenchon
This is the last possible explanation for the drop in voices from the left. The restive to Mélenchon, to his personality, to his plan to break up. Those who dream of the union of the left but of another, around less radical proposals. If it is very difficult to measure the number, specialists agree that they do exist in the country.
“This is a transition period. So yes, some may have dragged their feet, even if sympathizers of the moderate left have already rallied Macron. There remains a fringe of social democrats reluctant to LFI ”
Olivier Rouquan, political scientist
According to figures from the Ipsos institute, about 43% of socialists and 52% of ecologists would have voted in favor of Nupes. Can Jean-Luc Mélenchon seem reassuring enough to rally other voters to him? The allies of the Nupes face many obstacles if they intend to seize power. Otherwise, they can hope to deprive Emmanuel Macron of the absolute majority. The other challenge of this second round.