The electronic cigarette market represented 910 million euros in 2021. It could reach billion euros by 2024, according to a study by the specialized firm Xerfi Precepta. Currently, there are two million vapers and nearly 15 million smokers in France. Specialists agree that the electronic cigarette market has strong growth potential.
Except that several elements can come to put spokes in the wheels with these prospects.
In the short term, this study provides for “price increases for e-liquid manufacturers, faced with soaring supply costs for propylene glycol and vegetable glycerin, but also higher prices for flavors, energy, bottles”. After having “trimmed their margins to absorb these additional costs”, manufacturers could raise their prices, which would slow market growth, estimates this study.
Sales falling by half dreaded
Another obstacle: the “regulatory risk”, with “the possible implementation of a tax on vaping products” as in Germany or even the possible “ban on flavors other than tobacco to avoid seducing non-smokers , like the Netherlands, and the obligation to sell e-liquids in the form of pre-filled and sealed cartridges”.
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If this were the case, such measures “could even lead to a drop of around 50% in sales”, says Xerfi.
To avoid this, manufacturers seek to have their products recognized as a smoking cessation product, in the same way as patches and other chewing gums.