Ln April 21, 2002, the surprise qualification of Jean-Marie Le Pen for the second round of the presidential election had created fear, sparked powerful demonstrations and pushed the other political parties to stand together to defend the Republic. On June 19, 2022, the surprise entry of 89 deputies from the National Rally (RN) into the National Assembly did not provoke the same startle.
It has been interpreted as one of the multiple ingredients of the democratic crisis which is hitting the country alongside record abstention, the sharp decline in the presidential majority or the failed bet by Jean-Luc Mélenchon to impose cohabitation. Then everything focused on the opportunities offered by the new parliamentary game in the absence of an absolute majority: the end of verticality and a big leap into the unknown.
The facts, however, are stubborn: the only winner of the legislative elections is Marine Le Pen, who expected around thirty deputies and obtained three times as many. This progression, which no one had anticipated in the context of the two-round majority ballot, comes after a historic score in the presidential election where the candidate garnered more than 13.2 million votes and obtained 41.45% of the votes cast. It is not only explained by the intensification of the territorial network of the RN, which resulted in the presence of 208 of its candidates in the second round. It also results from the collapse of the Republican front, which since 2002 has been the main parade.
“Twenty years after its establishment, the Republican front remained operational during the second round of the presidential election, where two adversaries clashed. On the other hand, it malfunctioned during the second round of the legislative elections, where three blocs competed for the votes, ” observes Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion department at the IFOP. In all the staffs, including that of the presidential majority, the instructions have become more and more ambiguous, paving the way for an abstentionist withdrawal or even a transfer of votes in favor of the RN.
“The end of the democracy of choice »
Depending on the case, the calculation was either to weaken Emmanuel Macron, or to counter Jean-Luc Mélenchon, or to elect a representative of the RN. Independently of any moral judgment, the lesson of this behavior accredits the thesis of Dominique Reynié, director general of the Foundation for political innovation (Fondapol), according to which “blocking a party that is progressing ends up being experienced by voters as the end of the democracy of choice”.
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