On July 23, 2019, Boris Johnson arrived at 10 Downing Street, in a savior costume. Savior of the Conservative Party, in bad shape at the time, and savior of Brexit, then bogged down with Brussels: only he seemed capable of breaking the deadlock in negotiations with the European Union and reaching an agreement acceptable to the deputies conservatives. In fact, he managed to restart the machine and, in December 2019, won the legislative elections hands down, ensuring an absolute majority for the Tories in the Commons.
Less than three years after taking power, he left his post, abandoned by his family, rejected by a large majority of his fellow citizens. Combative to the end, he has none the less “regretted”, Thursday, July 7, during a short intervention, failing to convince his family to keep him in office. In two days, several dozen ministers and members of his administration had left the sinking ship. His eviction, he lamented, is a decision “eccentric” driven by a “Pack instinct”.
Boris Johnson ended up being overtaken by “BoJo”, the funny and goofy character he had created as a teenager to cope with his natural shyness. This is how he had won the esteem of the elite of his college at Eton, where he had entered as a scholarship holder thanks to the excellence of his academic results. An identity that he then made fruitful as a journalist, then as a politician who does not take himself seriously.
But in recent months Boris Johnson has found himself surrounded by the scandals that have piled up under his leadership. He was suspected of hiding the truth: support for a fellow MP accused of corruption, serial aperitifs in Downing Street during confinement, accusation of cronyism…
Hardening of the relationship with Brussels
The resigning Prime Minister will go down in history above all as the Brexit man. Boris Johnson has indeed succeeded where Theresa May had failed to carry out the Brexit decided by referendum, on June 23, 2016. The United Kingdom took off from the European Union on January 31, 2021. It’s over freedom of movement between the two sets, as well as access to the single market without control.
To avoid a no dealthe Conservative leader was forced to agree to sign a “Northern Irish Protocol” demanded by Brussels: it is a question of avoiding the reestablishment of a border on the island of Ireland, in accordance with the Good Friday agreements which put an end to thirty years of civil war, while ensuring that products entering the EU via Northern Ireland are checked on arrival.
Despite his signature, Boris Johnson will not have ceased, at the cost of a hardening of the relationship with Brussels, to want to renegotiate these provisions which break the territorial continuity of the United Kingdom. In vain. This Thursday, July 7, Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin considered that the resignation of Boris Johnson was a ” opportunity “ so that Dublin and London get off to a good start.
Labor shortage
The resumption of control of the national borders was to be one of the symbols of the regained sovereignty of the British thanks to Brexit. But the hardening of the migration policy under Boris Johnson has had the effect of multiplying the crossings of the Channel by means of small boats. Last year, 50,000 migrants arrived on British shores risking their lives. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, emptied of its European workers, must face a major shortage of labor (truck drivers, veterinarians, butchers, agricultural workers, etc.) which forces London to resort to 10,500 temporary visas post-Brexit.
Boris Johnson, who defended in 2009 the concept of “deserved regularization” when he was mayor of London, did not hesitate to promote the deportation of asylum seekers to Rwanda, under a bilateral agreement, in an attempt to deter illegal arrivals. Without success. The first plane specially chartered with hundreds of thousands of euros was finally grounded in June: the project, which Prince Charles, exceptionally out of his duty of political neutrality, had judged “appalling”, did not stand up to the judgment of the European Court of Human Rights.
An inconclusive “Global Britain”
Out of the European Union, the United Kingdom was also supposed to have free rein to forge its own trade agreements through the strategy « Global Britain », a concept theorized in a thick document with objectives to be achieved by 2030. Boris Johnson has notably bet on Asia. But London is at odds with Beijing, especially on the Hong Kong issue. And India has no intention of selling off its market of 1.3 billion people. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is demanding a visa liberalization that is impossible to grant by a government that has made migration control its hobbyhorse.
Trade agreements with other countries are also difficult to distinguish from pre-existing treaties with the EU, such as the one signed with Japan. As for the one tied with Australia, it “will not have the transformative effects that ministers like to claim”said the chairman of Parliament’s international trade committee, Scotsman Angus Brendan MacNeil, on July 6. In the end, the gain should not exceed 0.08% of GDP.
On the diplomatic level, Boris Johnson has taken on “Churchillian” accents to support Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. In fact, the United Kingdom is the country which, after the United States, has contributed the most to arms deliveries against Vladimir Putin’s army. “BoJo” is very popular in kyiv, where he has visited twice in the costume of an army chief. On Thursday July 7, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced his “sadness”.
Vaccination rates among the highest in the world
Domestically, Boris Johnson’s flagship program had a name, that of the « Levelling Up » : this plan aims to bridge the gap between the richest and poorest regions of the country, forgotten by growth and investment for decades. To achieve this, the government intends to accelerate decentralization. As its 2019 election platform states, “we need to get away from the idea that departments know best what to do and that all growth inevitably starts in London”.
While initial investments have indeed taken place and the decentralization process has continued, the implementation of the program has however stalled with the Covid-19 pandemic: between March 2020 and June 2021, the hard and partial confinements alternated in the UK.
After an initial hesitation of a few weeks on the health strategy to adopt, the government has resolutely embarked on vaccination. As a result, the vaccination rate is one of the highest in the world. In contrast, the UK has had one of the highest death rates in Europe.
Facing the press, outside his offices at 10 Downing Street, Boris Johnson admitted “the desire of the Conservative Party for there to be a new leader and therefore a new Prime Minister”, while saying “sad to give up the best job in the world”.
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A succession mechanism in motion
Now that the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned as leader of the Conservative Party, a new leader of the Tories must be appointed to succeed him in this post, then that of Prime Minister. The timetable for the election will be specified next week.
After a first round in which only Conservative MPs can participate, two finalist candidates are nominated. They will then be decided by the 160,000 members of the Conservative Party by the fall. In the meantime, the outgoing government dispatches, in principle, current affairs.
Several names are already circulating to replace Boris Johnson: Ben Wallace, Minister of Defense, whose rating has risen since the invasion of Ukraine; Penny Mordaunt, Secretary of State for Foreign Trade, pro-Brexit figure of 2016; Rishi Sunak, former Chancellor of the Exchequer (Minister of Finance), with a Thatcherite profile; Liz Truss, Foreign Secretary, popular with the Tory base.