Unless there is a new twist in this soap opera, which is not lacking, Elon Musk will not buy Twitter. The American billionaire has decided to break the agreement to buy back the social network from the blue bird, the American stock market policeman announced on Friday evening. The reason ? Twitter would not have respected certain clauses of the agreement relating to an amount of 44 billion dollars, in particular by not communicating the real number of fake accounts. But the matter should not stop there. We take stock.
Why did Musk break the takeover deal?
The official reason is as follows: “Twitter appears to have given false and misleading information on which Mr. Musk relied in entering into the acquisition agreement”, write his lawyers. They refer, mainly, to information requested on the number of inauthentic accounts and spam. As early as May 13, Elon Musk announced that the redemption process was suspended, for lack of knowing enough about these famous suspicious accounts, which he suspects of being four times more numerous than the proportion of 5% advanced by the site. from microblogging.
“He’s been talking about it for a while and pushing it. At first, we thought it was to lower the buyout price. But I think this is a serious reason, because the dice can be loaded if the real number of users is inflated”, judges journalist Olivier Lascar, author of a “Survey on Elon Musk, the man who defies science” (ed. Alisio). “Elon Musk was justified in knowing this number of fake accounts, these cannot be monetized because there is no human behind to integrate an advertising message”, adds Julien Pillot, professor in economics and digital strategy at the INSEEC business school, “not really surprised” by this development.
How did Twitter react?
Wrong. Late Friday evening, the president of the social network warned that the company was going to take legal action to “enforce the agreement” of the takeover. “Now that Twitter has let itself be convinced by the prospect of being acquired by Musk, it has more to lose than him if the deal does not go through. Because Musk suggests that this nugget is not as beautiful as that, ”analyzes Olivier Lascar.
“Twitter is in a pretty critical situation and it needs a real strategic second wind. With Musk, he could end up with a real strategist at his helm. But this reaction of not throwing in the towel at first is classic, because there is a lot of money at stake, ”comments Nicolas Vanbremeersch, president of the think tank Renaissance Numérique. Compensation for breach of contract can go up to a billion dollars.
Did Musk really want to buy Twitter?
What if the billionaire, who offered to buy “100% of Twitter” in mid-April, had been bluffing from the very beginning? Experts interviewed do not believe so. “This scenario is very characteristic of the fact that he is quite capable of saying one thing and the opposite extremely quickly”, believes Olivier Lascar. “It wasn’t just a tweet, but a real strong statement in the media, and the process has gone quite far on this file. We don’t do this just to get a buzz, a person like Musk doesn’t need it, ”adds Julien Pillot.
Moreover, it could even be that… the agreement ends up being made. Either because American justice forces the sale, an entirely possible hypothesis according to the American press, or because Elon Musk is backtracking again.
What consequences for him?
Financially, Musk, 51, could therefore have to pay up to a billion dollars in compensation. “But for someone who weighs around 200 billion, that wouldn’t be much,” puts Julien Pillot into perspective. The consequences could be more harmful for the image of the man at the head of Tesla and Space X. With this attempt to take over Twitter, the whimsical entrepreneur may have given the impression of abandoning these two companies to which he is identified, and this at the worst time: hit hard by the crisis affecting supply chains, Tesla has seen its value drop by around 30% in three months. However, it is difficult to know to what extent the turnaround on Twitter is linked to Tesla’s setbacks.
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Be that as it may, “in the eyes of the general public, this is just one more incident and it supports the image of the free man who does not hesitate to get rid of certain situations. But it will be interesting to observe how major partners will behave vis-à-vis him,” said Olivier Lascar. “The fact that he is breaking his reputation as a creator of value will inevitably undermine the confidence that investors and the economic ecosystem have in him,” adds Nicolas Vanbremeersch, according to whom this new saga only reinforces the “Musk mystery”.