The US mediator in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on the demarcation of the maritime border will arrive in Israel this week in an attempt to persuade the political echelon to accept the compromise proposal he formulated regarding the production of natural gas from the “Shark” rig. The Lebanese government is interested in a settlement but Hezbollah opposes it. Israel erred in not forcibly responding to the launch of the UAVs at the “Shark” rig, Israeli deterrence was harmed.
The Hezbollah muscle demonstration, manifested in launching 3 UAVs at the shark gas rig, put pressure on the Biden administration, which wants to maintain calm in the region during the president’s visit to Israel, the PA and Saudi Arabia this week and beyond.
Hezbollah’s muscle demonstration, reflected in the launch of UAVs at the Shark gas rig, put pressure on the Biden administration, which wants to keep the region quiet during the president’s visit to Israel, the PA and Saudi Arabia this week.
Israel is also very concerned. Her concern is that Hezbollah is going to escalate in the matter of natural gas After its leader Hassan Nasrallah announced that he would not allow the production of gas from the natural reservoir at sea. Israel plans to begin production in September.
This is why American realtor Amos Hochstein will return to the area. He will accompany President Biden’s entourage on his visit to Israel, where he will meet with Energy Minister Karin Elharar and members of the Israeli team to negotiate with Lebanon on the demarcation of maritime borders between the two countries.
Amos Hochstein, the American mediator in negotiations between Israel and Lebanon on the demarcation of the maritime border, will arrive in Israel this week in an attempt to persuade the political echelon to accept the compromise proposal he formulated regarding the production of natural gas from the “Shark” rig. pic.twitter.com/V6GxZuJ4rc
– Yoni Ben Menachem (@yonibmen) July 10, 2022
Lebanese sources say that negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are now expected to come out of the deadlock after five rounds of talks in Nakura between the Israeli delegation and the US-mediated Lebanese delegation.
The Hezbollah organization will surely attribute to it the expected progress in the negotiations, which would not have been achieved without the warning message Which conveyed to Israel and the United States through the launch of the UAVs to stop the arrogance of Lebanon and to respect its rights in the economic waters.
Since the launch of the UAVs at the shark gas rig, which was intercepted by the IDF, the Biden administration has been pressuring all political parties in Lebanon regarding the negotiations and conveyed a message that Israel is not interested in escalation but in a successful conclusion and agreement.
The Lebanese president and the Lebanese government also want an agreement. Last weekend, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said that “the question of demarcating the maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon will end soon and that the solution will be in Lebanon’s favor.”
He added that “Lebanon is on the verge of a solution with the Americans leading the mediation.”
Since the launch of the UAVs intercepted by the IDF, the Biden administration has put pressure on all political elements in Lebanon regarding the negotiations and sent a message that Israel is not interested in escalation but in a successful conclusion of the negotiations and an agreement.
The Lebanese president’s optimism stems from the fact that the Biden administration is exerting strong pressure on Israel to agree that the Qana gas field will be part of Lebanon’s quota in economic waters without demanding compensation. This is the message that Dorothy Shia, the US ambassador to Lebanon, conveyed to the Lebanese from the American mediator Amos Hochstein.
The big question is whether Hezbollah will relent after the muscle demonstration it did. Will he torpedo the achievement of the agreement even if the Lebanese government agrees to a US compromise solution?
The big question is whether Hezbollah will relent after the muscle demonstration it did, will it torpedo the achievement of the agreement on the demarcation of the maritime border with Israel even if the Lebanese government agrees to a US compromise solution? pic.twitter.com/uvw73KnFkG
– Yoni Ben Menachem (@yonibmen) July 10, 2022
It is not clear, there is no unequivocal answer to the question of whether Hezbollah is acting here out of Lebanese considerations to improve its political situation or that according to a sweeping directive from Iran to torpedo an agreement with Israel on economic water demarcation, which will allow Israel and Lebanon, each in its own field, to produce Natural gas that will bring in a lot of money and solve their energy problems.
The assessment in Israel is that Hezbollah is acting out of political considerations and that it is not interested in a large-scale escalation and a frontal confrontation with Israel.But days will tell.
Hezbollah is trying to position itself as the protector of Lebanon’s natural resources
The launch of the UAVs by Hezbollah into the area of the “Shark” natural gas field is intended to achieve several goals for the organization:
- He wanted to send a warning message to Israel and show it that it has the operational capability to prevent Israel from producing gas and oil from a “shark” field.
- It also sent a message to the United States that Hezbollah wants to influence the negotiations led by mediator Amos Hochstein and that it must take into account Hezbollah’s position otherwise the organization will torpedo the negotiations through security escalation.
- And of course he also informed the citizens of Lebanon that Hezbollah is living up to its promise to protect Lebanon’s gas fields and prevent Israel from stealing gas from them.
“Hezbollah will liberate Lebanon’s gas fields from the Israeli-American attempt to take control of them, just as it liberated southern Lebanon from the IDF,” a senior Hezbollah source told Lebanese journalists.
“Hezbollah will liberate Lebanon’s gas fields from the Israeli-American attempt to seize them, just as it liberated southern Lebanon from the IDF,” a senior Hezbollah source told Lebanese journalists.
Hezbollah claims that the launch of the UAVs “conveyed the message” it wanted to convey to Israel.
Hezbollah is trying to show Israel and the United States that it is not in distress because of the political and economic problems within Lebanon and therefore it has made a “muscle demonstration” that its position should be taken into account.
Israeli deterrence has been hit
The IDF had early intelligence information about Hezbollah’s UAVs being launched at the shark gas rig. He followed them from the moment of launch and intercepted them. It is considered a major intelligence and operational success, but the very launching and demonstration of Hezbollah’s muscle shows that the organization is not deterred. This move comes in the run-up to Biden’s visit to the region, especially after the administration asked Israel to remain quiet and not escalate on any front, and Hezbollah took advantage of this.
To this must be added the fact that in recent months Hezbollah has built 14 new observation posts on Lebanon’s border with Israel without Israel responding.
Last week, Israel eliminated one of Hezbollah’s aides in the Syrian Golan Heights by firing a missile from a UAV.
Last week, Israel eliminated one of Hezbollah’s aides in the Syrian Golan Heights, a Syrian citizen named Fried Mustafa known as the “Scorpion”. To UAV threats. pic.twitter.com/9qjMRoPpO1
– Yoni Ben Menachem (@yonibmen) July 10, 2022
This assassination comes in response to the launch of the UAVs at the gas rig in Shark, but it is not enough to deter Hezbollah, which is trying to accustom Israel to UAV threats.
The UAV interception is considered a major intelligence and operational success, but the very demonstration by Hezbollah shows that it is not deterred. In addition, in recent months Hezbollah has built 14 new observation posts on the border without a response from Israel.
Hezbollah is trying to draw new “red lines” by launching the 3 UAVs at the “Shark” reservoir and Israel needs to take a series of gradual actions to strengthen its “red lines” that will also be a response to the launch of the 3 UAVs.
After filing a complaint with the UN Security Council against the Lebanese government that the UAVs had been launched from its territory, For its part, it should temporarily freeze contacts with the Lebanese government Through the American envoy Amos Hochstein and continue preparations for the gas production from the “Shark” rig. Any surrender to Lebanon’s demands will lead to further blackmail by Hezbollah through terrorist acts, its appetite increasing with food.
In the second phase, Israel needs to increase Air Force flights in Lebanese airspace and attacks on Hezbollah targets in Syrian territory.
In the third phase, the IDF must destroy the 14 observation points that Hezbollah recently established along the Israeli-Lebanese border and renew the assassinations of senior Hezbollah members in Lebanon and abroad.
The IDF must destroy the 14 observation points that Hezbollah recently established along the Israeli-Lebanese border and renew the assassination of senior Hezbollah members in Lebanon and abroad.
Israel must take a firm and determined stance, especially during the election period, and maintain its “red lines” in order to send the right message to Hezbollah. pic.twitter.com/waVc7gYIO7– Yoni Ben Menachem (@yonibmen) July 10, 2022
Israel must take a firm and determined stance, especially during the election period, and maintain its “red lines” in order to convey the right message for it to Hezbollah.
Hezbollah is trying to draw new “red lines” in the launch of the UAVs and Israel needs to take a series of gradual actions to strengthen its “red lines” and in response to the launch
The Lapid-Ganz government is now perceived as weak by all terrorist organizations in the Middle East and it needs to rehabilitate its deterrence, especially against Hezbollah. If this does not happen, natural gas production from the Shark rig may be postponed indefinitely.