Lhe social security deficit will be reduced to 16.8 billion euros in 2022, or 3.6 billion less than expected, thanks in particular to “the good performance of employment” at the start of the year. According to a report by the Social Security Accounts Commission, the expected surplus of taxes and contributions (15.6 billion) will more than offset the new expenditure (12 billion) planned for the Covid, the revaluation of the index point civil servants, but also the 4% increase in pensions and social benefits included in the bill on purchasing power.
Growth is slowing down, inflation gallops, but social security is picking up. A little thanks to soaring prices, which pushes wages up. A little also thanks to the vigorous recovery of employment in 2021, which extended into the first half of the year. Subject to new developments in an uncertain context – both in terms of health and geopolitics – half of the abyssal record recorded in 2020 (-38.7 billion) could thus have been erased in two years.
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The pensions branch is approaching breakeven
The health branch will nevertheless remain heavily in deficit (-19.7 billion), largely due to the health crisis, the cost of which will still exceed 10 billion this year, i.e. twice as much as forecast in the budget voted in December. On the other hand, the retirement branch will still approach equilibrium (-1.2 billion), thanks to an Old Age Solidarity Fund (FSV, which finances the minimum old age in particular) in surplus for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008. Surpluses are also expected for the family branch (3.1 billion) and accidents at work (1.8 billion), where unions and employers have just opened negotiations to “use the best” of this jackpot.
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