Business insolvencies are multiplying in France and increasing by almost 50% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2020. They are approaching the levels that preceded the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a study by the Altares cabinet published on Monday.
“Since February, the upward trend has accelerated significantly with an average monthly increase of 45%,” said Thierry Millon, director of studies at Altares, as the number of failures had started to rise after the confinement periods. . The phenomenon first affects small businesses and in particular the youngest, which have liquidation rates identical to 2019, details the study. In restaurants and retail, the number of defaults doubled over one year.
In the construction sector, insolvencies are increasing less rapidly (+24% over one year), especially for structural work companies (+13%). Real estate is one of the few activities that remain more preserved: the number of defaults in the sector fell by 1%.
No recession in sight, except another energy shock
All regions of France are concerned, but the failures are concentrated in Hauts-de-France where the number of procedures doubled in the second quarter. These figures confirm the trend revealed on Friday by the Banque de France. It indicated a 14.6% increase in business defaults over the last twelve months compared to the same period last year.
However, “the business climate is not collapsing”, reassures Thierry Millon. “Inflation, soaring energy prices, disruptions in supply chains, the closure of certain markets are slowing growth, but the economy is holding up and businesses are resisting,” he says. However, “the specter of recession looms”, he comments, while the study suggests a total of 37,000 defaults over the year 2022. This number would remain much lower than that of 2019, so the Bank of France recorded 50,000 failures that year.
Barring a new energy shock, the Banque de France is ruling out the possibility of a recession for the time being. The European Central Bank (ECB) plans to increase its interest rates to fight inflation, but these remain “favorable” to the economy, judged the governor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau .