In light of President Biden’s visit to Israel, various issues arise between Israel and the United States. Israel and Arab countries, especially those close to Iran, fear Iran because of Iran’s aspiration to increase its influence in the Middle East, at the expense of others, including Israel and the Gulf states.
American withdrawal from the Middle East
The Biden administration seeks to reduce US involvement in the Middle East but without losing its grip on Iran. One of the options that comes up from time to time is to forge a regional alliance that will also include Israel. But it will be a complicated move to make, certainly on the military level. It is doubtful how long such an alliance will last in real time, that is, during a confrontation with Iran.
The point of view of Israel, a regional power, is different from that of its American patron, a world power. The Biden administration sees China and Russia as major rivals, at the global level, while Iran is a secondary and regional rival in terms of the Biden administration.
Israel sees Iran as a key rival and China and Russia as a problematic partner. No rivalry. Among other things because of China’s and Russia’s ties with Iran. Israel is trying to maneuver between the United States and China and Russia, necessitating complex compromises that do not prevent arguments and criticism and American pressure on Israel.
At some point in time, Israel may have to choose between its ties with China and Russia and its relations with the United States. Israel cannot afford to loosen, certainly not noticeably, in its relations with the United States. Maintaining its relations with the United States may cost Israel a reduction and even a rift between Israel and China and Russia.
Fuel prices
The dramatic rise in fuel prices is troubling the Biden administration, and could cost it dearly in the November congressional election. To try and lower the price of oil i.e. fuel, and also as part of an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia on this level, the Biden administration was forced to compromise on its policy in the Middle East.
One of them concerns Iran, in order to increase oil exports from Iran, thus hoping to lower oil prices significantly. Israel is also concerned about the rise in fuel prices, but unlike the United States, Israel does not see Russia as a sworn opponent, and this was reflected in the somewhat vague Israeli approach to the war in Ukraine.
For Israel, greater reliance on Europe and certainly on the United States on Iran, as a substitute for Russia in the field of energy, is a policy that will harm Israel. Iran can take advantage of this against Israel, including in light of American criticism of Israel because of Israel’s policy toward Ukraine.
Friction between Israel and the United States will weaken ties between them, including regarding coordination with Iran. On the other hand, if, as now reported, Iran does help Russia fight Ukraine, for example by selling UAVs, it will present Iran as a clear rival of the United States, which will help Israel harness the Biden administration against Iran.
Iran and Russia
Iran and Russia have complex relations. The two have cooperated in Syria, helping the Assad regime survive, but there are conflicts of interest between Iran and Russia over Syria, as each aspires to be the dominant state in Syria. The war in Ukraine obliges Russia to focus on this front, at the expense of other fronts, including Syria, which will help Iran increase its involvement in Syria.
Israel is, of course, strongly opposed to an Iranian hold on Syria, certainly one that would include the establishment of a solid military base, intended against Israel. For about a decade, Israel has been bombing targets in Syria that concern Iran and / or Hezbollah, which has reduced but not eliminated the preparations of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.
Israel has reached an understanding with Russia regarding attacks on Syria but this may change, certainly if Israel, as part of its desire to satisfy the United States, supports Ukraine against Russia.
Israel may be forced to take risks in Syria, as part of its effort to receive American aid against Iran in general and its nuclear program in particular. Despite the threat posed by the Iranian base in Syria, it is clear that it cannot be eliminated and even if it is strengthened, if Israel reduces attacks there, it will still be a marginal threat with regard to the possibility that Iran will possess nuclear weapons.
Military option
The Biden administration opposes a military option against Iran but if negotiations with it fail, which may well happen, the Biden administration must consider a military move against Iran, to prevent it from producing nuclear weapons. The Biden administration, certainly in light of all its other challenges, especially within the United States, would be very reluctant to present a public military option.
With all the opposition in the United States to Iran and its nuclear project, among Democrats and Republicans alike, there will be very significant opposition to an American attack on Iran. It is not certain that an American attack will degenerate into war even though it may happen, and that is enough for the Biden administration.
This should not prevent Israel from warning Iran and having no choice but to attack the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, with American support. The Biden administration will therefore not warn Iran directly and officially, but will leave it to Israel, while providing substantial military assistance to Israel to prepare and when necessary to attack Iran.
The Biden administration will still strive to avoid a confrontation between Israel and Iran but will not rule it out, if there is no escape from it. The Biden administration will try both to restrain Iran, and with no choice perhaps even by force, through Israel, and to avoid American military entanglement in the Israeli-Iranian conflict.