According to a survey by the Panels Politics Institute, led by Menachem Lazar for Maariv, the connection between blue and white and new hope gives them only 13 seats, while the Netanyahu bloc reaches the desired 61. In a poll conducted last week, Blue White and New Hope received, without consolidating lists, 14 seats. So according to the survey today, the whole is smaller than the sum of its parts.
According to the poll, the Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu is the largest party with 36 seats, as in the previous poll. There is a future headed by Prime Minister Yair Lapid climbs in the mandate and rises from 23 last week to 24.
Blue and white with new hope, after the connection between them, becomes the third largest party with 13 seats. Religious Zionism, despite disagreements at the top between Bezalel Smutrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, is stable with 10 seats. Below: Shas maintains a stable figure of 8 seats, as does Torah Judaism, which remains unchanged with 7 seats.
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The Labor Party, led by Merav Michaeli, which claims to be a ruling party, receives 6 seats – as in the previous poll. The joint list and Yisrael Beiteinu also remain unchanged, with 6 seats each. Locks the list RAAM with 4 seats.
Below the blocking percentage are to the right, headed by Ayelet Shaked and Meretz. The right crashes in the survey to a low of 2.2%, compared to 2.6% in the previous survey. Meretz, after the retirement of Nitzan Horowitz from the leadership of the movement and before a new chairman was elected, receives 2.5% – compared to 2.1% in the previous survey.
In terms of blocs: The Netanyahu bloc is the second consecutive poll to cross the finish line and wins 61 seats, which gives the Likud chairman the opportunity to form a homogeneous government. Common 6 seats.
The survey also examined a scenario in which Yoaz Handel and Zvi Hauser (Derech Eretz) join the right. Such an alliance jumps the party to 4 seats and changes the image of the blocs. The increased right weakens the new blue-white-hope list, which drops by one seat to 12, and also takes a mandate from Mish Atid (23) and from religious Zionism (9).
In such a case, the right deprives Netanyahu of the possibility of forming a government without it. The Netanyahu bloc drops to 60, the Lapid bloc to 50, the right – 4, the joint list – 6.
The survey was attended by 711 respondents, who constitute a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, 614 Jews and 97 Arabs (a request to participate in the survey was sent to 4,621 members of the panel). Data collection is done through the Panel4All web panel. The survey was conducted on July 6-7, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 4.2%.