The result (also) of an extension of the average life expectancy (+9 years compared to 1990). Infant mortality is also falling: -60% compared to thirty years ago
Next November 15th the population of the planet Earth will reach 8 billion people. This was calculated by a projection made by the UN based on the pace of population growth in recent years. In a period in which wars, food shortages, climatic emergencies add up the fact that the world is getting more and more crowded can feel like a shock. Instead, the United Nations points out that the ceiling of the eight billion inhabitants is the fruit (also of the clear improvement of some sanitary standards. For example, the collapse of infant mortality on a planetary level. In short, that record in some way also good news. Here’s why.
The demographic growth line drawn by a report published by the UN says that after the 8 billion limit set on November 15, in 2030 there will be 8 and a half billion and so on up to 10 billion and 400 million at the end of this century. The dynamics of growth are very different from one continent to another The Far East and South East Asia will still be the busiest area on the planet but theor more impetuous development will come from Africa (Congo, Egypt Ethiopia, Nigeria). Already in 2023 we will witness a historic event: for the first time India will become the most populated state on Earthwith over 1.4 billion people, albeit slightly surpassing China.
But the novelty highlighted by the UN report is another. Population growth motivated on the one hand by lower levels of infant mortality and on the other, a longer wait. In other words, fewer people die later globally. One figure effectively captures this leap: the average life expectancy on Earth in 2019 had reached 72 years and 8 months with an increase of almost 9 years compared to 1990. Had it not been for Covid, the figure would have been even higher. In 2050 this indicator will reach 77 years and 2 months.
At the same time the female fertility index fell: the UN always reports that in 2021 each woman gave birth to an average of 2.3 children against 5 which were recorded in 1950. Also in this case the average data includes profoundly different realities. Some areas, such as sub-Saharan Africa or Latin America, maintain high levels of fertility among adolescents: 10% of women in labor under the age of 20 are concentrated here and this it still poses serious problems related to health care and childhood education. Another forecast made by the report: the countries in which fertility falls but the most consistent age range is that of working age (25-64 years) will have in the years to come greater opportunities for economic growth . Asia, South America and the Caribbean are part of this macro area.
Wanting to broaden the field on another datum it must be said that also infant mortality significantly decreased: Unicef reports that in 2019 this index (albeit still distressing) had dropped at the lowest levels of history: the deaths of children in the first 5 years of life were 5.2 million (almost always avoidable according to Unicef) against 12.5 million in 1990. A collapse of 60%.
In general the population growth curve on earth tend to flatten out from now to 2100 precisely following the decline in fertility. The result will be that more and more countries will experience general aging of the population, once again with a very unbalanced picture: in thirty years the over 65s in Europe will be almost 26% of the inhabitants in 2050 but just 4.6% in southern Africa.
July 15, 2022 (change July 15, 2022 | 16:29)
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