Genome Center deciphers the more mutant covids, the faster the epidemic. The results showed that BA.4/BA.5 grows well in the lungs. But not as serious as Delta. The infected person has mild symptoms that are fatal. It is believed that the virus has adapted. And the people are immune from vaccination. Point out that Thailand has a lot of elderly people. Should speed up the search for a vaccine for COVID Gen 2 to support the subspecies of Covid-19 BA.2.75 and BA.3.5.1 will be friend or enemy to humans is still inconclusive. due to insufficient information
On July 16, the Genome Center posted a review of the COVID-19 mutation analysis. whether it is a danger to humans or coexist in endemic status via the Center for Medical Genomics page interestingly with the content that
“Can it be concluded? Omicron subspecies BA.4 and BA.5, as well as newly found strains BA.2.75 (Centaurus) and BA.3.5.1 (Bad Ned) are harmful to humans or viral. Can species coexist in an endemic state?
the answer is “Depending on the state of the people of each country”
From the genome decoding of the coronavirus 2019, the entire genome revealed that
1. BA.2.75 (The Super Contagious Omicron Subvariant), informally known as “Centaurus”, has the most mutations of any 2019 coronavirus outbreak. With more than 100 different mutations from the original virus (Wuhan), it had a relative growth advantage of 200% measured weekly. Compared to the current outbreak (BA.5)
2. BA.3.5.1 (Bad Ned) is the second most mutated. After the centaurus, it differs from the original 2019 coronavirus by approximately 90 places.
3. BA.5 mutates approximately 85 differently from the original coronavirus 2019 strain.
4. BA.4 has approximately 80 different mutations from the original 2019 coronavirus strain.
5. BA.2.12.1 mutates 75-78 places differently from the original coronavirus 2019 strain.
6. BA.2 mutates approximately 75 places from the original coronavirus 2019 strain.
(Picture 1)
It is expected that soon “centaurus or BA.2.75”, which has now mutated more than 100 locations (different from Wuhan), will spread as the main species, replacing all the above-mentioned species. and the first species at the Genome Center has prepared a test kit to support the impact of the outbreak
The study of the mutational nature of the coronavirus 2019 was based on the genome-wide decoding of the coronavirus 2019 collected from more than 11.8 million infected people that scientists around the world helped decode and upload on to. The cloud of the world’s COVID-19 database “GISAID” found that The more emerging the 2019 coronavirus, the more mutations different from the original Wuhan virus, the faster the strain will spread in the population (growth advantage). ) This is directly proportional to the increase in the number of new infections. but may not be associated with morbidity and mortality (Figure 1).
part Omicron subspecies BA4/BA.5 It is also highly mutated, causing some locations of the spikes on the outer shell of the virus particles to change, similar to the delta species. Some locations of the thorns have been mutated like alpha, beta, and gamma species.
In addition, laboratory tests showed that BA.4/BA.5 thrived in human lung cells cultured in vitro. Infected cells are fused to form giant cells that attract white blood cells in the body to destroy lung inflammation. It was also found that BA.4/BA.5 was able to grow in the lower respiratory tract and in the lungs of rats. Make it fully qualified that is a species that is dangerous to humans. as well as the Delta species. (Read more from https://www.facebook.com/CMGrama/posts/5165817486859323)
The question is whether real world data indicates whether BA.4 and BA.5 pose a serious threat to infected humans compared to the original delta or omicron strain BA. 1 and BA.2 with previous outbreaks Considering the countries with BA.4/BA.5 infection being the first countries Due to the start of the epidemic until the end of BA.4/BA.5 in each country is similar to the same projection after the same roll, but the time is limited.
South Africa was the first country to experience a BA.4/BA.5 pandemic, followed by Portugal. Looking at the outbreak data and clinical data, the outbreak will occur, persist and resolve within approximately three months. In South Africa, the outbreak has been completed. Portugal is nearing its end. It was found that the rate of new infections infected people who need to be hospitalized and the deceased less than during the outbreak peak of BA.1/BA.2 and less than during the epidemic peak of the delta as well.
Viruses appear to be more adaptive to humans. This may be due to the increasing number of natural infections and/or the increasing number of immunized populations. The emergence of sustained immunity (from Memory T & B cells) can help an infected person not suffer a life-threatening illness. Even if infected with the original coronavirus 2019 strain or a new mutated strain that the body has never encountered or is immune to before (Figure 3-5).
Read more from https://www.facebook.com/CMGrama/posts/pfbid0DfkBJf2dtypFkMtHr9gEQ5VwxSsDiEktNapmMWY4dFgkdPLHF51QB1dFRRPKGdeal
BA.4 and BA.5 are expected to coexist with people in South Africa and Portugal as the number of severe cases requiring hospitalization and death does not exceed the health systems of both countries (Fig. 3-5)
Watch a clip explaining more.
https://www.facebook.com/CMGrama/videos/4045264392364736/
https://www.facebook.com/CMGrama/videos/586006103100434/
The outbreak of BA.4/BA.5 in the UK and other European countries is currently on an uptrend. We will have to wait another 2 weeks to 1 month from now until it is clear that BA.4/BA. .5 will be friend or foe to the population in those countries (Figure 3,6) but by tracking the new cases and deaths from https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths The graph was not steep and the peak was not as high as the delta or BA.1/BA.2 with past outbreaks (Figure 2).
The outbreak of BA.4/BA.5 in Thailand compared to the rate of new infections. severely ill and the deceased With the other countries mentioned above, it is considered low. would have to wait another period before concluding that there would be a sick person Died as during the Delta outbreak? (Image 7)
Countries with a large number of elderly people, such as South Korea Or in Hong Kong, there is a risk that the number of people with severe symptoms will need to be treated in hospitals so much that the health system may not be able to support it. Therefore, those involved in each country may urgently consider a second-generation vaccine that uses at least omicron substituents BA.4 and BA.5 as the starting line for vaccine production. Because the Omicron mutation continues unceasingly.
The Genome Center has developed a “MassArray Genotyping” assay to complement whole viral genome sequencing, which requires a week of decoding, analysis and interpretation. Examine the main species and subspecies of omicron. More quickly from specimens with known ATK or PCR positive results of any strain between BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, BA.5, BA.2.12.1, or BA.2.75. within 24-48 hours (Figure 9)
This will be important information for the treating physician to know which subspecies of omicron infection they are treating. This was to be attributed to the level of clinical manifestations of the green, yellow, and red patient groups to decide the appropriate antiviral or synthetic antibody therapy. (Individualized and precision medicine) together with checking whether the virus genome is intact, capable of infectious or just genomic fragmentation that does not infect others. Next (Figure 9)
More details can be read from https://www.facebook.com/CMGrama/posts/pfbid0EcEwKneB9xkgn9hS7cEeWYAzAw6KeVWXtdba2qh1ETTp9Rf9mYCt1N1SywaRPzdYl
As for epidemic and clinical data for BA.2.75 and BA.3.5.1, it is inconclusive that these two species will be friendly or hostile to humans. But, of course, there are more mutations than BA.4 and BA.5, which will likely result in a multiplicity higher rate than BA.4 and BA.5.
note
I) Department of Medical Services, Ministry of Public Health has divided the level of symptoms of covid patients According to the degree of illness, they are marked in green, yellow and red for systematic care and treatment. They are divided into 3 groups as follows:
-Green means the patient has few symptoms. or without symptoms or mild symptoms such as fever, cough, runny nose, red eyes, rash, no co-morbidities, stay at a field hospital or a hospital
– Yellow is a patient with mild symptoms. but have shortness of breath, rapid breathing, risk factors for severe symptoms or co-morbidities, such as age over 60, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Other chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease congenital heart disease cerebrovascular disease Uncontrolled diabetes, obesity, over 90 kg weight, cirrhosis, low immunity and white blood cells less than 1000
-Red is a group of patients with shortness of breath, dyspnea, X-ray reveals severe pneumonia, pneumonia, blood saturation less than 96% or a decrease in oxygen more than 3% after exertion of the value measured on the first exertion.
II) Calculation The average “epidemic capacity” of infectious diseases, or R-naught (R0), shows the number of people who For example, Omikron subspecies BA.5 has an R-naught value of approximately 18.6 (people infected with BA. One person can infect approximately 18-19 others who are not immune to BA.5), while the measles virus has an R-naught (R0) of approximately 18. However, the use of R-naught (R0) against the coronavirus 2019 emerging species This may be inaccurate because most people are immune from natural infections or by vaccination. At present, we look at the relative growth advantage”, which is measured in weeks. Comparison of mutations between emerging and existing epidemic strains.