A well-known proverb attributed to an unknown grandmother explains that in order to avoid disappointments, you should not develop expectations. It is not known whether the grandmother of the transitional prime minister, Yair Lapid, also used to use the proverb, most likely the grandson is not aware of it, otherwise he would have been spared a great disappointment last weekend, with the end of the high-profile trip of US President Joe Biden to Israel and Saudi Arabia .
Let’s start from the end: despite the many hopes and endless hints from the Prime Minister’s office and its surroundings about expected progress in the normalization procedures with the Saudis, and despite the Israeli fantasy of wiping hummus in Riyadh, the royal family of the Arabian Peninsula were not impressed by the culinary desires of the Israelis, and announced that without a move on the Palestinian level – at least any As long as King Salman is alive and well – there will be no normalization of relations between the countries.
In general, the Israelis can still be relatively satisfied, Biden – who in the last two years personally attacked the Saudi crown prince, following the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul four years ago – received a particularly cool reception. The Saudis humiliated the guest and gave him an education course in the best Middle Eastern tradition, starting with a low-level reception and ending with an elegant refusal of his pleas to increase oil production, in order to deal with the severe energy crisis and its consequences, in the form of unimaginable inflation in the US, on the verge of ten percent.
In a kind of poor man’s joy, the Israeli media enthusiastically celebrated the Saudi approval for the passage of Israeli planes through its territory. Nehhad: Even before the signing of the Abraham Accords (which were done with Saudi support, since the Emirates and even more so Bahrain, would not have taken such a step without express permission from the neighboring power) the Saudis authorized foreign planes on their way to and from Israel to pass through their skies. With the approval of the agreements, it was also possible for Israeli planes to pass through Saudi Arabia on their way to the Gulf. The current addition will allow the El Al and Israeli planes flying to India, Thailand and Australia to also shorten their journey by a few hours. Not an extraordinary political achievement to brag about.
But even if we leave the Saudi sector, it can be said that the visit went wrong for Lapid almost from the beginning, even at the festive welcome at the airport. First it was the shameful removal of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett from the red carpet after the landing, then it was Biden himself who, as if to anger, took the trouble to violate the protocol of the ceremony and turn to the head of the opposition, MK Benjamin Netanyahu, to shake his hand warmly and state how much he loves him.
The sequel did not bode well for Lapid either, Biden felt comfortable in the company of Defense Minister and traffic jam-breaker Benny Gantz, and at almost every joint event he recognized his girlfriend over that of Lapid, who was caught on camera more than once trying unsuccessfully to start a conversation. Even with the remaining time, local president Boji Herzog managed to establish his image as the official host of the event. This is not how Lapid planned the class, probably the most significant in his political and political career.
Lapid can take solace in the approval ratings for prime minister, which increased as expected and placed him as the candidate accepted by the entire bloc for the position. If in the last year he enviously watched Bennett and his six representatives achieve him in the matching percentages (when both of them together stand far from Netanyahu), the first two weeks in office positioned him, as he had wished for the entire last decade, as someone who is suitable – at least in the eyes of his voters – to live permanently in Balfour, with a difference of only five percent from the head of the opposition.
Unfortunately for Lapid, match percentages are not helpful in the Gush index and they may even be harmful, if he accidentally over-extracts the work, Meretz or Israel Beitenu. He will need to prove his abilities this time in order to keep Merav Michaeli, Zehava Galon and Yvette Lieberman in the next Knesset, small and submissive, hoping that the right-wing-Orthodox bloc will not get the long-awaited sixty-one mandates, and praying that Gantz will not try his luck in Netanyahu’s lap again.
He has no comforter
Many good Jews had a hard time standing this week in an attempt not to open the three Shavuots in Bat Shashuq. It happened at the end of the 17th Tammuz fast, when a somewhat comical correspondence was revealed between the Prime Minister of the Transitional Government Yair Lapid and between the head and Rishon of the troublemakers in the ultra-Orthodox media, my beloved friend Menachem Toker.
Toker, in a feigned tone of seriousness, let Lapid assume that he was part of the establishment of a modern ultra-orthodox party, a sort of hybrid creation that would sweep away thousands of imaginary voters, those who would agree to go with Gush Lapid. So far, let’s say, a talented comedian is allowed to try to trash a sitting Prime Minister, especially if it shows a sudden interest in religion and Samaria. The problem arises when you are exposed to Lapid’s reaction, and it is especially worrying when you remember that the aforementioned also has the option of pressing the mythical red button. Suddenly the three and a half months remaining until the elections seem too long and it seems that there is a good reason for a special reinforcement in the coming Elul.
Lapid enthusiastically encourages Toker to get going, welcomes the (fictional, of course) support of the Chief Rabbi of Israel Gard Law – apparently in violation of the law, and promises to pamper the entrepreneurs and partners in the establishment of the party from his current position as prime minister, not something that the movement for the quality of government tends to pass over in silence , at least when it comes to the quality of the right-wing government.
But we will not get caught up here in the grammar of poverty and the support of the bearer of the flag of the purity of hands and the cleanliness of the hands in illegal matters, what is particularly disturbing is the double inability that Lapid demonstrates: first, the inability to understand that he is in the midst of a cruel hoax, and second, the inability to do the minimum required of his lessons Home to about 15% of Israel’s population, to understand that he is completely disconnected, that the idea is not applicable, and even if it is, the initiator is not the person who can and is suitable to do this.
One can judge Lapid to be fair and assume that during his visit to Paris he was affected early by the heavy heat wave that hit Europe, or that he was busy at the time trying to get a reasonable photo op with President Joe Biden. It is also possible to explain simply that this is the characteristic woven throughout all the years of the man, in the press and in politics – an embarrassing disregard for the small details. But mainly, it can be understood that the token has already fallen for him, twice: he will not be prime minister without the support of the ultra-Orthodox, and under no circumstances will he receive the support of the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Working in Meretz
While Lapid and Co. are trying to break up the right-wing bloc without success (hoping that the fight that escalated to raucous tones between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir will not lead the right to shoot itself inside the APC), they are slowly preventing the opposite chance of losing votes in the left-wing bloc. If it is true as of last week It seemed that Meretz would burn two or three mandates and end her political career, this week things already look completely different.
First, with the collapse of the party below the percentage of blocking in the polls, half of its members in the previous Knesset retired (not including Norwegians) – Tamar Zandberg and Esavi Frij joined the unforgettable Zoavi and they will no longer serve in the next Knesset on behalf of Meretz. To them was added the statement of the chairman, Minister of Health Nitzan Horowitz, who took the brunt of the fire and accusations about the failure to maintain the MKs throughout the term and the inability to make the party take off. Horowitz did not wait for his friends to conduct a civilized lynching of him with a pluralist flavor, and hastened to announce that he would not run for the position of chairman in the primaries, which will be held in about a month.
Horowitz’s retirement left only one of the incumbent representatives in the race, Yair Golan, who already had time to announce this week in one of the studios that he sees himself serving as prime minister in five years, no less. It might be worth reminding him that the cannabis law did not pass in the last Knesset in the end. The one who was pulled out of the mothballs to save the party, and despite the lack of an official announcement it is clear to almost everyone that she is the one who will lead it in the end, is the chairman until four years ago, Zehava Galon.
In the meantime, Galon denies the expected contest, hoping that her fans in the faction will clear the last obstacle in the form of Golan and pave her way straight to the chairman’s office. Meanwhile, the impact in the polls was immediately evident due to the insight that Galon will likely be the one to lead the party, and she has recovered and established herself in the region Probability of a mandate above the blocking percentage. Now, the concern has arisen precisely about the ability of the Labor Party to survive, after a relatively disappointing term, when it is faced with the expected abandonment of voters to Meretz on the one hand and Blue and White on the other.
Michaeli, who defeated party secretary general Eran Harmoni in the internal primaries this week with a Syrian majority (12,429 votes, which make up 82.5% of the votes, compared to Harmoni’s 2,435 votes, which make up only 16.1%), faces a challenge that is not easy at all. Last time she enjoyed the aura of who came to save the historic party from destruction, and who was not a member of Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmoli in the first unity coalition and was not tarnished by selling her values to the right. This time, she comes as a partner to the government that failed to protect the weak, and she appeals to voters who are informed every other day about the increase in the price of bread, electricity, and housing or the fuel.
Michaeli’s answer to all of these, meanwhile, includes an attempt to reposition Labor as a ‘center-left’ party, in an attempt to differentiate itself from Meretz (and also explain along the way why it strongly opposes the unification of the lists) and in the hope of nibbling a little on the edges of Blue and White and Yes Atid. The problem with such a move, that it may turn out to be a boomerang: on the one hand, there is a load of ‘center’ parties – from the ‘center-right’ parties of Shaked and Yvette, through the ‘centered center’ of Sa’ar and Gantz, to the ‘center-left’ of Lapid. On the other hand, old Labor voters may not connect with the rebranding and migrate out of ideological rage to the new-old savior of Meretz. Michaeli takes a risk and takes a huge bet, which may succeed and maybe even bring her closer to a double-digit number of mandates, but may also crash into the rocks of the blocking percentage.
parting with a third
As always, the most interesting primaries are the ones that will take place on a yet to be determined date in the party apparently destined to return to power, the Likud party. It seems that the various candidates are also convinced of the success of the upcoming campaign, and they are all jumping on the bandwagon in a desperate attempt to start in a realistic place, if only on the basis of the future implementation of the Norwegian law, and using the latest mascot – the Netanyahu chain.
Among the new contenders can be found a host of unfamiliar names, but also some dominant contenders that may surprise, including Gilad Sharon, the son of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and who was previously blocked by Netanyahu, but now claims to improve relations between them, Prof. Avi Simhon, who served As Netanyahu’s economic advisor in the days of the Corona virus, Moshe Feiglin, who despaired of running independently and returned to his first political station, former MK Amit Halevi and the freshest and most promising contender of all – the journalist Erez Tadmor, Netanyahu’s close associate and one of the prominent ideologues of the right-wing camp (and who also signed the book that became The last of the prophecy that fulfilled itself – ‘Why do you vote right and accept left’).
After offsetting the three shields reserved for Netanyahu (Shikli if he wishes, Silman and probably Gal Hirsh or Ron Dermer as well) and the list of seats reserved for districts (in which the incumbent MKs cannot compete, and for which a heavyweight battle between Netanyahu and some Likud senior officials this week to identify the voters who will determine the district candidates), we are left with a little more than twenty realistic places. Even after the retirement of Dr. Yuval Steinitz, there are another twenty-seven sitting Knesset members who will join the new contestants who chose to run on the national level and not within a district. With a high probability, about a third of the incumbent MKs will be dropped from the list.
We will not bore you with the details of the deals and the interest groups, and the influence of the free functionaries compared to the functionaries of the organized groups, we will only summarize in summary that quite a few surprises are expected, with the strengthening of the power of the ideological functionaries, many of whom are angry about the group of MKs that disappeared in the last year, and wish to promote those who fought In a tangible way, with an emphasis on Levin’s opponent, Dodi Amsalem, Israel Katz, Yoav Kish, Shlomo Karai and the new star who was armored by Netanyahu last time – Galit Distel Atbarian. The latter will have to face a significant challenge and be the first ever to compete in the national list after being armored and in all This manages to integrate into a real place. We will continue and follow.
Error and its punishment
Last week it was argued here that one of Gantz’s errors in the early union with New Hope lies in the early timing, because it allows Eisenkot to consider his steps patiently, examine where the party is going in the polls and choose wisely whether to join the project, prefer Lapid or stay out of the political circle.
Predictably, that’s exactly what Eisenkot did. Two days after the publication of the first polls that indicated a shuffle in the place of ‘Blue and White of the New Hope’, his associates leaked a sort of statement of intent on his behalf, according to which there is no point in tampering with his intentions because the decision will only be made next month, if at all. Judging by the polls at the beginning of last week, in which the new party deteriorated to twelve seats or less, it seems that at least in the competition for the heart of the acting general, Yair Lapid may still mark V.
Teaser 1: We are not caught here by the grammar of poverty and the support of the bearer of the flag of the purity of the hands and the cleanliness of the hands in illegal matters, what is particularly disturbing is the double inability that Lapid demonstrates: first, the inability to understand that he is in the midst of a cruel hoax, and second, the inability to do the minimum required of homework on about 15% of Israel’s population, to understand that it is completely disconnected, that the idea is not applicable, and even if it is, the initiator is not the person who can and is suitable to do this
Teaser 2: Michaeli’s answer to all of this includes an attempt to reposition Labor as a ‘center-left’ party, in an attempt to distinguish itself from Meretz, and also to explain along the way why it strongly opposes the union between the lists, and in the hope of biting a little at the edges of Blue and White and there is a future . The problem with such a move, which may turn out to be a boomerang: on the one hand, there is a load of ‘center’ parties. On the other hand, old Labor voters may not connect with the rebranding and migrate out of ideological rage to the new-old savior of Meretz