Environmental problems in certain regions can lead to conflicts and mass migration. These are the findings of the 2021 Environmental Threats Report released by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) on October 7 – less than a month before the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.
IEP experts studied the situation in 178 countries around the world to identify those where the link between conflicts and environmental problems is most obvious. At the same time, on the one hand, the risks of a particular region to face a shortage of food and drinking water, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters were assessed. On the other hand, indicators were taken into account that reflect the ability of society and the economy to quickly recover from the crisis, specifically: the presence of an effective government in the country, comfortable conditions for doing business and a favorable situation with human rights.
“We tried to understand how strong the connection between environmental problems and (existing in different regions of the world. – Ed.) conflicts. And it turned out that it is much stronger than we thought, – comments the results of the study, the founder and head of the IEP, Steve Killelea, in an interview with DW. “Environmental problems and conflicts are closely intertwined.”
When one problem flows from another
According to the study, in regions suffering from conflict and environmental problems – such as natural disasters, resource scarcity and temperature anomalies – one problem often becomes a consequence of another.
Environmental problems could lead to mass migration of the African population
“When resources run out, there is a struggle for them. This conflict weakens the social infrastructure in general and causes further destruction of resources. And this, in turn, exacerbates the conflict,” explains Killelea. Sometimes the situation is complicated by the presence of various ethnic and religious groups that are at war with each other, the expert adds.
An example of a region caught up in such a “vicious circle”, according to the head of the IEP, is the region of Africa south of the Sahara – the so-called Sahel zone. “Systemic” problems such as social unrest, weak civil institutions, corruption and rapid population growth are intertwined there with problems of lack of high-quality food and drinking water.
IEP experts believe that all these problems increased the likelihood of conflicts in this region, and also contributed to the activation of a number of Islamist movements there, which took advantage of local conflicts over resources to achieve their goals.
Regions at highest risk
Serge Strubants, head of the IEP’s Europe, Middle East and North Africa, told DW that the institute’s report lists 30 countries as hot spots. These states, on the one hand, are struggling with the most serious environmental problems, and on the other, they are characterized by high levels of corruption, weak civil society institutions, poor business conditions and uneven distribution of resources.
The study also identified three regions that are at the highest risk of social collapse. This is the Sahel zone, stretching from Mauritania to Somalia, the South African belt (space from Angola to Madagascar), as well as the Middle East and Central Asian belt (from Syria to Pakistan).
In all these regions, there is an increased potential for conflict, as well as preconditions for the start of mass migration. In 2020, more than 50 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa were forced to flee their homes due to various conflicts.
Climate change factor
Despite the fact that such environmental problems as the lack of food and drinking water exist regardless of climate change, this factor has led to their exacerbation. In such conditions, more and more people are forced to leave their homes. The IEP estimates that by 2050, in sub-Saharan Africa alone, 86 million people will become migrants due to climate change.
Conflict and Peace Research Specialist from Uppsala University, Nina von Uekskull, who was not involved in the preparation of the IEP report, in an interview with DW, confirmed the link between climate change and the growth of conflict potential in various regions of the world. “It is believed that the overall impact of the climate on the risk of conflict in modern countries is quite insignificant compared to other factors. However, some regions of the world are indeed vulnerable in this regard,” she notes.
The situation in developed countries
Countries in Europe and other highly developed regions also face natural disasters and the effects of climate change, but these states are more resilient to the challenges of environmental threats, the IEP said.
After flooding in western Germany in summer 2021
This is due to the presence of stable governments, a social insurance system, the material well-being of citizens and other factors. Strubants cites the example of the situation after the devastating floods in Germany and Belgium in the summer of 2021: “Both countries are already recovering. Only a small number of people had to be resettled. The victims are well taken care of and will be able to return to their homes in the future.”
Possible solution to the problem
Countering climate change will not be able to fully mitigate the risk of conflicts associated with environmental threats, the IEP believes.
Therefore, experts call on governments and international institutions to unite structures that are struggling with problems in the fields of health, water and food shortages, finance, and so on. Scattered institutions working in these areas will not help solve regional problems, the researchers point out.
“By focusing on systems solutions, you can achieve much more efficiency,” emphasizes IEP chief Steve Killelea.
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