A cross-examination of trade data to Russia suggests that massive triangulations are taking place on this route to circumvent sanctions
There are twenty countries through which Russia has managed to circumvent the sanctions imposed by democratic governments since the beginning of the war. Among these the Turkeythe Chinese they United Arab Emiratesas well as various former Soviet republics that have been at the center of suspicion from the start: the list includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and even Georgiawhere Russia launched a military aggression in 2008 and, at the start of the conflict in February, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in support of Ukraine.
This is a reality that many Italian companies are probably already familiar with: a look at the trade flows reveals clear signs that, in the space of a few months, Turkey has gradually become a platform through which numerous exporters of Made in Italy continue to supply the Russia on a very large scale, even when the practice would be illegal.
But let’s go in order. The international cases of circumvention of sanctions through those twenty countries would be hundreds. They will be the focus of an upcoming report from the panel of experts led by former US Ambassador to Moscow Michael McFaul and Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s political bureau. Informed observers predict that the Yermak-McFaul group will suggest Western governments to close the loopholes, threatening secondary sanctions on countries that help Russia through a network of trade triangulations.
It will not be easy, given the systemic dimensions of some of the nations involved. Certainly a cross-examination of trade data from Italy to Turkey and from Turkey to Russia suggests that massive triangulations are taking place on this route to circumvent sanctions.. It is difficult to explain otherwise the glaring oddities of the last few months. Firstly, Turkey is the country to which last June Italy records by far the largest increase in exports: more than 87% on an annual basis, up to 1.4 billion euros in sales in just one month; this is an increase of 500 million per month compared to February and a unique case in over ten years of sales to Turkey which have always remained well below one billion per month (according to the Istat statistical office). This boom is all the more surprising because in the last year the Turkish lira has almost halved its value against the euro, making imports from Italy much more expensive for local companies.
But the explanation is probably in the export data of Turkstat, the statistical office of Ankara. Between February and June of this year, Turkish exports to Russia exploded, with a growth of about 400 million dollars per month. Among Turkey’s more than twenty main trading partners, Russia is the fastest growing destination both since the start of the war (up 68% of Turkish sales) and in the last year (up 46%).. Even other countries that reject sanctions against Moscow such as China, Vietnam or Malaysia now export less to a deep-seated Russian economy. On the other hand, the flows of goods and services from Turkey to Russia have never been so strong, just as flows from Italy to Turkey itself have never been so strong. The size of the increase in trade is also similar, between $ 300 and $ 400 million a month higher.
These are clues, not proofs. But if Italian companies are truly using Turkey as a platform to circumvent sanctions and illegally open up the Russian market, the issue will be impossible for the current Rome government to ignore. And also for the next.
July 31, 2022 (change July 31, 2022 | 08:21)
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