Taiwan map
For a long time there has been this scary possibility: China might invade Taiwan. The empire’s military dwarfs the island nation’s armed forces, but a possible invasion would likely be more akin to the brutal World War II Allied landings on Normandy than the swift victory of Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf War in 1991.
About 100 miles from China and about the size of Maryland, not only is the island of Taiwan surrounded by dugouts and fortified defensive moats, but the island also has geographic features that make it a very poor place to invade—no matter how strong the invading force might be.
Observers note that in 1944, the US military canceled Operation Causeway, a plan to invade Taiwan (then a Japanese colony called Formosa) because its cost was deemed too high. US military planners concluded that invading Formosa and holding the island would require a total US strike force of half a million men . The Pentagon summed up the number of expected US casualties from an invasion and subsequent fighting in the mountains, the jungle and the city, and this number was staggering – up to 150,000.
Taiwan has been preparing for invasion since the 1950s, and as such has a solid intelligence apparatus, forces trained for the singular mission of ousting Chinese forces, an abundance of powerful modern military hardware, and formidable defenses in place along any possible landing zone. Due to the mountainous terrain, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers will face withering firepower raining down on them from fortified defensive positions.
Observers believe that China is unlikely to merely bomb Taiwan into submission; However, while cruise missile attacks on Taiwanese military targets are a real concern, Beijing is believed to strongly prefer to keep Taiwan’s infrastructure – particularly anything to do with the semiconductor industry – relatively unscathed.
Semiconductors are vital parts of everything from weapons systems to cars and Taiwan is the world’s largest producer. Market intelligence firm TrendForce reports that “Taiwan dominates the world’s semiconductor manufacturing industry – controlling 48% of the foundry market and 61% of the global capacity to build at 16nm or better.”
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Additionally—despite the usefulness of scare tactics—China’s military leaders are aware that indiscriminate bombing will inevitably kill civilians. Such murders could easily turn generations of Taiwanese into mortal enemies rather than people who might – even reluctantly – accept a return to the “hug of the motherland”. In addition, Taiwan also has missiles – some of which, according to Taipei, can hit Beijing.
Kitsch Liu, a military and cyber affairs consultant at Doublethink Taipei Lab, who has also looked into China’s invasion scenarios, told Fox News Digital that aside from the terrain and the fact that there’s only a relatively short window when the Taiwan Strait is calm enough for fairly safe passage by the Navy, people sometimes overlook close to simple logistics. “Normally, each military unit carries no more than three days worth of supplies,” says Leo, “which means they have to be resupplied, or steal what they can from the field.
Leo points out that the ammunition is heavy, cumbersome and wears out quickly. The PLA cannot – except on an ad hoc basis – use munitions captured from Taiwan. “That means they’re going to have to bring a huge amount of equipment,” says Leo.
“A successful landing would be a Pyrrhic victory for China. Far from completing their missions, the amphibious landing ships would potentially be required to go back and forth across the Taiwan Strait (becoming highly vulnerable and profitable targets) in order to supply the ground forces with supplies,” Liu said.
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Just because an invasion of Taiwan would be a painfully bad idea doesn’t mean China won’t try, but the reality of an invasion, some observers believe, means it’s more likely to be a last option rather than a first.
Many military experts and China watchers agree that “choking” scenarios such as a blockade would be far more effective than sending up to hundreds of thousands of Chinese soldiers to their deaths.
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