The jihadist leader shot in his hiding place in Kabul The habit of going out on the terrace betrayed him. The CIA hunt and the Abbottabad background. The hypotheses on the succession to the throne and the name of another Egyptian: Al Adel
Death for a terrorist starts from his life path. That is, from his behavior, from his contacts, from possible shelters. He may rarely or never come out of his lair, but this too becomes a sign for hunters. happened with Osama, with the Caliph al-Baghdadi and now with Ayman al-Zawahiri killed by a US drone in Kabul at 6.18 on Sunday. The elimination of the Al Qaeda leader tells a lot. Meanwhile the hiding place. Not a cave or a house in a remote area, but one building in Sherpoor, a residential area a few tens of meters from the Western embassies.
Bin Laden had made a similar choice: the compound in Abbottabad, the Pakistani town home to a military academy. Both presences enjoyed complicity. Less declared is that of Pakistan, the Taliban hospitality for Ayman is evident given that the shelter-house owned by a collaborator of Sirajuddin Haqqani, interior minister and exponent of the homonymous clan, has always been allied with terrorists.
The best camouflage is to be close to the heart, not on the outskirts. Fugitives like Al Zawahiri, on whose head was a $ 25 million bounty, have a hope of escaping their pursuers only if they remain immobile at their base. Not a choice, they are forced to do it. If they decide to change scenery they take a risk. They are the hermits of terror who try to lead followers remotely.
Localization
The Egyptian extremist has taken the step to join the family – they say – and the CIA discovered at the beginning of the year his probable transfer to the capital. From here began the second phase to arrive at localization, followed by the composition of the life path. In the spring, spies briefed White House advisers on developments, a message then passed on to Joe Biden. The intelligence, even if the US has abandoned Afghanistan, has done its job effectively: if the Egyptian doctor had remained in the tribal area it would have been more difficult to find out as evidenced by the decades of inaction. But the target, settling in the city, shortened the distances, for the informants it was possible to act on the ground. This does not rule out other scenarios, including that of a betrayal, with the mullahs selling the guest to Washington in exchange for a diplomatic return. There was talk of ongoing negotiations between various components, of the hand of the Pakistani services. Except that organizing the trap in full Kabul is not a good presentation, maybe they could look for less embarrassing theaters. Provided that there are no internal feuds behind the Egyptian doctor’s death. Meanwhile, rumors and theses, constant components of the world of darkness, will continue.
The model
Once it was certain, US espionage repeated the scheme used to liquidate Osama. The technicians built a model of the house by combining close-up observation, satellite reconnaissance and who knows what else. Obama was shown a perfect model of the building in Pakistan while the Navy Seals trained in a polygon that reproduced the spaces in a rigorous way. The more modest one placed on Biden’s table on July 1st: a reproduction of the house in a wooden box. Little more than a miniature, almost artisanal touch. During the decisive briefing the director of the CIA, William Burnshighlighted the pros and cons – Biden, at the time of the raid against Bin Laden, had voted no to the assault -, the alleged habit of the extremist leader of being on the balcony. Maybe he did it every morning and the eyes that marked him noticed it. A window, in all senses, used by an Avenger drone, a version with greater autonomy than aviation vehicles taken off from a friendly country. The aircraft managed by the intelligence has released its missiles, perhaps the R9X, devices that do not explode but destroy using rotating blades, a system already used in Syria that allows to reduce collateral damage. Analysts claim this after noting the absence of combustion on the facade, although in reality – before the story of the raid was known – there was video of a column of whitish smoke. The knot of recognition remained. In Abbottabad the team leader radioed the code word Geronimo, it was the confirmation that they had gotten rid of Osama. In Kabul the intelligence, not having the DNA of the Egyptian, was based on its own local sources.
The character
Al Zawahiri was an important ideologue, for years he was a number two of great weight pushing for the internationalist line of jihadism. When, eleven years ago, he took over from Osama he failed to demonstrate the same relevance. Al Qaeda has been overtaken in extremism by the Islamic State, more agile, less swamped, based on pure violence. The factions of reference have fallen back on local agendas, moving away from the global struggle. Ayman bored the audience with long sermons on the web, the sympathizers of the holy war criticized his clean clothes to point out that he did not get his hands dirty, they had even considered him dead due to an illness. He talked a lot and few listened to him. However, he did not disappear, he managed to maintain influence on the old guard and on some regional components. In Somalia, in Yemen, in the Sahel. Now the scepter could pass to another Egyptian, Seif al-Adel, an early veteran, very experienced but with a weak point. According to some, he lives in Iran, a state enemy of Sunni radicalism which, for reasons of opportunism, has hosted several Al Qaeda leaders.
Alternatively the son-in-law of Zawahiri Abdel Rahman al Maghreb, then Yazid Mebrak exponent of the Maghreb or the Somali Ahmed Diriye of the Shebabs. Those who believe in ghosts even mention Hamza bin Laden, the founder’s son. He would have been killed during the Trump presidency for some imagine an unlikely surprise. He is cheap to say.
August 3, 2022 (change August 3, 2022 | 08:11)
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