Eran Etzion: What are the channels not telling us about the polls they publish?

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Israeli politics is saturated with satanic figures and casual figures. There is a good chance that Gadi Eisenkot is not like that. It’s good that the seemingly likable retired Chief of Staff joins politics, because every prominent voice against the right increases the chance of saving the country.

Is it good that he joined Benny Gantz and not Yair Lapid? It’s more complicated.

It’s good that the seemingly amiable retired Chief of Staff joins politics, because every prominent voice against the right increases the chance of saving the country. Is it good that he joined Gantz and not Lapid? It’s already more complicated

Gantz has ambitions to become prime minister, and these greatly interfere with creating momentum behind Prime Minister Lapid. The lack of momentum behind a Bloc candidate could keep people at home on election day. Despite his physical resemblance to Yitzhak Rabin, Gantz casts himself here as a Shimon Peres style subversive. It does the memory of neither of them any favors.

On the other hand, Gantz (and his partner Gideon Sa’ar) currently have more chances to attract votes from the sane right. Only God knows why these sane people see themselves as right-wing (don’t want a bi-national state; don’t want a theocracy; don’t want an autocracy; but the right, only the right – the power of branding, maybe). Optimally, the “state camp” trio will be able to bring a significant number of right-wing votes without detracting from Lapid, thereby increasing the bloc.

The development may also harm Ayelet Shaked – sorry, the “Zionist spirit” – and lower Ola below the blocking percentage. This is almost as important as whether Meretz will pass, because it is clear that if Shaked inside, she joins Binyamin Netanyahu and according to the polls of the day, brings him to the majority. Her denials rightfully receive zero attention.

For dessert – and it’s really a chocolate souffle – if Shaked disappears, she will also take the tormented election pocket, her accomplice Yoaz Handel, the man who prevented Gantz from forming a government in 2020. There will be poetic justice in this.

Gantz has ambitions to become Prime Minister, which interfere with the creation of momentum behind Prime Minister Lapid. The lack of momentum behind the Bloc candidate could leave people at home in the election. Despite his certain physical resemblance to Rabin, Gantz casts himself as a persian style subversive

However, there is an even bigger issue here than blocking Netanyahu and returning politics to a degree of tolerable filth.

In an interview with “Maariv” from January, Eisenkot clarified that he understands the demographic suicide inherent in the continuation of Israel’s merger with the Palestinians in the West Bank. He repeated it this week when he announced his joining Gantz. Even as chief of staff during the knife intifada, he warned against a light finger on the trigger and demonstrated the proper disgust at the Elor Azaria festival (the soldier who executed a wounded Palestinian attacker, and whose parents received populist calls from Netanyahu).

It seems that this “leftism” is Eisenkot’s main motivation for entering politics.

It is important that it comes from a general, and another one who seems more settled than Meir Golan. I have always felt that the public does not really understand the incredible extent to which the people entrusted with its security do not like the occupation. This position of theirs derives mainly from the strategic-demographic reasons above – and, sometimes, as a secondary issue, in the Ehud Barak model, also on a moral basis.

You would have thought that this point was made very clear already in 2012 by the film “The Gatekeepers”, in which all six (!) living Shin Bet chiefs – including a confused one who is now in the Likud – revealed their position that the occupation poses a danger to Israel. Lord of the world – chiefs The Shin Bet, in charge of maintaining that occupation!

This applies to a large extent, of course, to most senior “securityists”, both as an institution and even in the police.

You would have thought that the point was already made clear in the 2012 film “Guardians of the Gate”, in which all six (!) living Shin Bet chiefs – including a confused one who is now in Likud – revealed their position that the occupation poses a danger to Israel

The fact that the center-left did not make effective use of it, in front of a rather militaristic public, is simply crazy. This is a classic case of wasting an expensive resource. It should appear in every textbook on Sholomi politics.

It stemmed from a fear of saying clear things, a disease of the center-left in most of the world. Since his positions often require sophistication and depth, an understanding of history, and a vision for the future, he is afraid of the public (and the reader is hinted at). Even the “defenseists” themselves are like that (except maybe Ehud Barak and the same Yair Golan). Even great heroes run away from the term “leftist”.

This brings us to the 2019 experiment with the “Blue and White” party, which reflected in the spotlight the hidden truth of the shooters and crying with the falafels. But instead of being what it is, Blue and White was afraid to say anything for fear of leftism. Gantz even tried to ward off the danger by inventing broadcasts that even boast of killing terrorists, a parable was rapul with them or epic with them. Thus, Blue and White neither presented a vision, nor was scorned for being a “party of generals” from the guard of the civil model on the right.

It worked about the same way the non-General Boji Herzog’s campaign worked in 2015. Only with the invention of Avigdor Lieberman’s defection to the left (because he remembered that he did not want a theocracy) did Gantz achieve a draw, and the rest is known. Somehow this bunch think they have achieved great things by inheriting the captive electorate of the Labor Party, and not much else. People like to show off.

In the 2019 experiment, the “Blue and White” party shines a spotlight on the hidden truth of those who are crying and crying with halaplim. But instead of being what it is, Blue and White was afraid to say anything for fear of leftism

One would hope that Eisenkot is a little more serious. If so, maybe finally the security advantage – which simply must exist potentially – will be realized.

I understand that right now he is focused like a laser beam on getting rid of Netanyahu, so he too will hesitate to express himself on any other issue. It’s not smart in my opinion, but it’s not completely unreasonable either.

The question is what will happen next. It was said that Bibi failed for the fifth time in a row, perhaps making a plea deal, perhaps winning a gift package, and then we predicted a Likud without Netanyahu, a sign of the end of days. Will this Likud be a partner for the broad government that Eisenkot is trying to promote, perhaps to make peace?

There used to be hope that a more sane Likud could be part of a move to save Israel – in the West Bank, in relation to the ultra-Orthodox, the whole story. This hope was always faint – but it existed. After all, Dan High School and Moshe Nissim and the like were once there – these are not crazy. The Likud had several problems (the settlement in Lebanon, 400 percent inflation, the prevention of the London Agreement that would have transferred the Palestinian problem to Jordan, and more) – but it was not an authoritarian party at least. She knew there were judges in Jerusalem.

The recently selected Knesset list in the Likud primaries is a very bad sign, a Siamese twin for Donald Trump’s Republicans. Judging by the first ten, there is no trace of this old and mediocre Likud, who may not have been a great genius but wasn’t crazy either.

The new gang – you can perhaps call it “the new Likudniks” – will walk with its head against the wall and will be happy to burn down the club. Nor will she abandon Netanyahu so quickly. It is not a reasonable partner for a future “state” coalition. She is also not a partner of Gadi Eisenkot as he presents himself.

It is not state.

The Knesset list chosen in the Likud primaries is a very bad sign, a Siamese twin for Trump’s Republicans. Judging by the first ten, there is no trace of the old and mediocre Likud, which may not have been a great genius but not crazy either

Is Eisenkot deceiving, like some of his predecessors? Times are tough. no time to waste Eisenkot will have to decide soon who he really is.

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