Less than 50 days before a hotly contested election in Brazil, the candidates officially launched their presidential campaign on Tuesday. Among the applicants, two favorites stand out. On one side, the left-wing ex-president of the Workers’ Party, Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva. On the other, the current far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, of the Republican party.
The two candidates have decided to give the starting signal of their race for the election in very symbolic places: for Lula, an industrial zone near Sao Paulo, where he was a turner-miller before becoming a union leader; for Bolsonaro, in Juiz de Fora, where he had been close to death in a stabbing attack four years ago. On Sundays October 2 and 30, 2022, the Brazilian people will deliver their choice, in a degraded political, economic and social context.
Who is favourite?
If nothing is played in the battle between the current head of state, candidate for his succession, and his predecessor, this Monday, a poll by the Ipec institute gave a comfortable advantage to Lula, with 44% of intentions vote in the first round, against 32% for Jair Bolsonaro. Despite these indications, the electorate of the two rivals is floating.
Not to mention that “like his American counterpart, if Lula wins, will Bolsonaro recognize his victory? asks Arnelle Enders, historian specializing in Brazil. “An attack against Lula is possible. Under the Bolsonaro era, the number of weapons in the population exploded”, fears the one who describes a “violent latent” in the country.
What strategy are the candidates adopting?
Jair Bolsonaro took advantage of the end of his mandate to open the floodgates and distribute public money everywhere. The Head of State lowered the price of gasoline and also launched a social plan to 30 billion euros last March. The outgoing wishes to retain its current readership, made up of faithful evangelists, soldiers, etc., while trying to capture rural areas. He also targeted young people, giving an interview to a podcast for more than five hours.
Often at the heart of criticism for his strong positions against societal struggles, the LGBT community, abortion, Jair Bolsonaro also suffers from a disastrous reputation internationally. The Brazilian “Soft Power” has been eroded, external support is gone, which should benefit Lula. The left-wing ex-president encourages social struggles and carries them into his campaign. He also intends to cast a wider net. According to Christophe Ventura, research director at IRIS, in charge of the 2022 electoral observatory of Latin America, Lula’s program “has a more marked economic liberalism than his former mandates. A moderate program, supporting local businesses, but always with leftist values”.
Brazilians “tired of political life”
“These elections will take place in a context where Brazilians are tired of political life, of indecision, of disillusionment, from the left as from the right”, considers Christophe Ventura. The situation is not stable. Since 2016, the country has been weakened by a chronic political crisis. Dilma Rousseff succeeded her mentor, Lula, from 2011 to 2016. Accused of making up public accounts, dismissal proceedings were initiated against her in 2015. The Petrobas scandal, in particular, precipitated her dismissal. From 2016 to 2018, the country was then led by Michel Temer, also convicted of corruption.
In 2018, the candidate and former president Lula, returns to the charge to seek a new mandate… and ends his campaign in prison. The reason ? The purchase of a three-room apartment in Rio de Janeiro, presumably “offered” by a public works company. Sentenced for corruption and money laundering, Lula spent a year and a half behind bars. As for the “Brazilian Trump”, Jair Bolsonaro, his sons are targeted by investigations for corruption.
12 % d’inflation
In power since 2019, Jair Bolsonaro has seen his popularity rating decline sharply, due to his mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has already caused 680,000 deaths in Brazil. But also because of very high inflation, at almost 12%. But, according to Christophe Ventura, “the election of Jair Bolsonaro has just opened a new chapter in the economic crisis which has affected the country for years”. Security, the economy, the environment, “all these indicators have been at their lowest since 2002 and he has done nothing to raise them”, continues the IRIS researcher. The poverty rate in the country has stood at 6.5% since 2017.
Since 2019, of Brazil’s 212 million inhabitants, at least 14.7 million survive on less than $1.9 a day and are in “extreme poverty”. The war in Ukraine has not helped matters. Brazil depends on imports of fertilizers from Russia, an essential resource for its powerful agri-food industry, which represent 80% of its needs. Socio-economic elements will weigh in the choice of Brazilians next October.