Mid-end of August. As far as the general public is concerned, this is the peak of the holiday season. For the politicians this is a time of organizing, building headquarters and planning campaigns. Driving in low gear on the way to the big race that will officially open on September 15, when the lists will be closed, and the cohesive teams will line up on the starting line. Therefore, the season of political matchmaking is in full swing.
The joining of the former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and the former Minister of Religious Services Matan Kahana to the party of Bnei Gantz and Gideon Sa’ar (which, in honor of the occasion, also changed its name to the “State Camp”) was definitely a prominent political match, which concluded a long and complicated series of dates.
Decided to enter the political system: Eisenkot joins the party of Gantz and Saar
“A list that does not pose a threat”: the right-wing bloc is not worried about the “state camp”
Did it slip out of his hands? Lapid’s surprising reaction to Eisenkot joining Gantz and Saar
Gantz and Saar have been waiting for Eisenkot from about the moment they agreed on running together. Not because they saw him as a game-changer who might bridge the gap between them and Yair Lapid’s party, but mainly because they saw him as a reinforcement player with significant image weight enough to establish Gantz’s image as a consensus man capable of standing at the head of the bloc and portraying himself as a legitimate candidate for the presidency the government.
Throughout the last month, during which Eisenkot procrastinated, thought, checked and hesitated, at Gantz-Saar’s they followed his moves and did not worry. “It will be great if he comes, and it won’t be a disaster if he doesn’t come,” they argued. What they didn’t want to see under any circumstances was a scenario where Eisenkot comes, but not to them.
Last week, reports began to flow about advanced contacts between Eisenkot and Lapid, and towards the end of the previous week it became almost a fait accompli. On Friday, Gantz was told that after a marathon of meetings that Eisenkot held, the decision was made, and he was going to close with Yesh Atid, where the 21st Chief of Staff was offered the second place – right after the party chairman.
If this scenario had come true, Lapid would have recorded a dramatic and decisive image achievement: the head of the largest party in the bloc, the current prime minister, recruits a weighty security figure into his ranks. Gantz’s chances of presenting himself as a central and leading factor would shrink significantly.
While Lapid entered the Shabbat break with the assumption that Eizenkot was locked with him, and what remained was only the official announcement and the technical signature, the feature with Gantz had only just begun. The best political operators close to him were called and joined the task.
Among the persuasive conversations held with Eisenkot in order to change the direction, one conversation stood out that may have ultimately tipped the scales. Ofer Shelah, formerly Lapid’s friend in the party and currently Eisenkot’s friend in the INSS institute, gave the freshman politician his (very clear) analysis of the prospects of democratization in the Yesh Atid party.
It is not difficult to guess what was said during that conversation. The fact is that Eisenkot preferred third place to Gantz, along with a promise that he would head a special committee for the formation of a primaries system in the state camp for the next elections. It turns out that Eisenkot decided to start his political career not only to hold a significant position, but also to gain a point of influence within the new system he entered.
He does not establish his own party, as they thought about him before, but in the existing party he joined, he insists on being one of the captains who set the rules of the game, and not one who plays according to rules that were established and anchored long before.
Eisenkot came to what, starting this week, bears the pompous name “The State Camp”, and brought some things with him as a dowry. the prestige of the position of the former Chief of Staff, the security aspect and the image weight. What he did not bring to Gantz was added electoral value. Party Chiefs of Staff. Evaluation yes, mandates less.
one of us
The significant electoral asset that was immediately reflected in the first polls after Eisenkot’s entry was the one who came with him “in the package”, aka the Minister of Religious Services and former right-wing figure Matan Kahana. From the moment Naftali Bennett made the decision to retire, it was clear to Kahana that he was not staying with Ayelet Shaked.
This understanding was caused not only by the fact that Kahane entered politics at the invitation of Bennett and as an associate and confidant of the former prime minister. In the year of the change government, tensions arose between Kahana and Shaked that got worse and worse. Kahana was not ready to forgive Shaked for the criticism she passed on the conversion law, which was the flagship law of the Minister of Religions.
Therefore, with Bennett’s departure from the Prime Minister’s office, Kahana began searching for a new political home. Quite a few political figures pointed out to Shaked the problematic nature of his possible departure, and there were those who even advised her to “commit suicide so that Kahana would remain in the Zionist spirit, and condition the entry of the party Each government has a ministerial portfolio for him.” Shaked herself would certainly have preferred to see Kahana remain in third place on her list, but for the man himself this was not an option.
Kahane started his conversations with Eisenkot about a month ago, and the chemistry between the two former officers was immediate. When in one of the conversations with Gantz Eisenkot made it clear that if he were to join, he would come with Matan Kahane and that they would take care of him for a real place, Blue and White carried out electoral tests and discovered that the former minister is not a burden that comes with a star, but an electoral asset.
It turns out that the same “soft right”, which became a code name in the current election system, sees Kahana not only as “one of our own”, but also as a symbol of action for the values of the current within the religious-nationalist sector. According to estimates, Kahana’s joining the state camp dealt an electoral blow to the Zionist spirit of Shaked and Handel. With Gantz, they immediately recognized the “potential for happiness”, and made a decision to turn the electoral bonus into a strategic line for the rest of the campaign.
At this point it is worth stopping and going over the voting data recorded in the religious-national sector in the last elections last year. According to the electoral distribution, the majority of religious Zionists (the sector, not the party) who belong to the mainstream and what is defined as “light”, voted for Likud (35%) and the right (17%). In contrast, only 2% preferred Sa’ar’s New Hope party. 12% of the people of those currents within the religious-nationalist public voted for Gantz.
It is likely that those who chose Likud a year ago will not change their minds this time either. Even those who voted for Gantz and Sa’ar probably did so out of a desire for a government to be formed that is not headed by Netanyahu, and they will persist in their position even in the current elections.
Unlike the electorally united voters, for or against Netanyahu, their friends, who for years voted for Bennett, found themselves this time without an original political home. Not that their “own” political party is necessary for them, for the moderate religious Zionists (moderate – in both the religious and ideological aspect).
Unlike the ultra-Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox sectors, the moderate public hardly needs its own lobby of educational institutions and community institutions. It is much more involved and involved in the general public, and for it the party is more of a social club than a political tool for obtaining budgets. But a club is also an important institution in the whole of social life , and in the eyes of tens of thousands of members of the moderate religious current, this club was destroyed and no longer exists.
In politics, as we know, there is no room for electoral death, not even for a short period. A political vacuum that is created – is filled in a short time. Parties go after every voter who is undecided or without a safe political home, not to mention an entire audience.
Even during the right-wing period led by Bennett, Likud saw the soft right and the moderate religious-nationalist public as the long-awaited component capable of completing a quorum for the Netanyahu bloc. Today, after Bennett’s departure and with the disintegration of Yamina, the best strategists in Likud are racking their brains over the question of what is the most effective way to bring those people into the bloc’s arms.
Those around Netanyahu estimate that if In the end Itamar Ben Gabir and Bezalel Smotrich do not overcome the differences and run separately, Ben Gabir will attract the votes of right-wing people who did not exist in the bloc before. On the other hand, Smotrich, especially if Amichai Shikli runs with him in one format or another, will be able to bring the votes of the moderate right, at least partially. According to the same estimates circulating in Likud and the entire bloc, the chances are increasing that the Zionist spirit will not be able to rise, and that it will retire before the elections or that it will run to the end and burn the votes of the right.
It is almost needless to say that despite the estimates and despite all the polls, Shaked and Handel continue with a campaign that is entirely aimed at that moderate right that is looking for a home. With Matan Kahane’s joining the state camp, surprisingly, Gantz is the politician who today offers the moderate religious-nationalist public the most representative knit core in the arena.
Kahana did not come to an empty place with knitted caps, but strengthened the group that existed before. Together with Hili Trooper, Ze’ev Elkin and the traditional Panina Tamno Sheta, Kahane is expected to lead a campaign among the moderate streamers. These days, the members of the state camp are working with all their might on the “knitted” campaign, which if and when it succeeds – could be the decisive factor that will bring the “No Bibi” camp the coveted mandates from the other side.
separate run
Likud carefully and worriedly follows what is happening on the right, and for now Netanyahu and his people have not formed a clear opinion regarding the question of what is good for Likud and the bloc. Should we support the lame (and some claim, sinking) party of Shaked and Handel, or drink from it as many votes as possible belonging to the bloc? And the most dramatic: is it, like last time, to turn worlds so that Smotrich and Ben Gvir unite and run under a common roof, or is this time the split between the two actually better in the overall view?
Itamar Ben Gvir (Photo: Tomer Neuberg, Flash 90)Here too, as in other political issues, Netanyahu prefers not to rush to make decisions, and to examine the situation as he moves. Although in the past he worked in favor of the union between Otzma Yehudit and religious Zionism, out of a well-founded fear that individually neither of the two would pass the blocking percentage and the damage caused to the bloc would be fatal, this time it seems that the Likud chairman is beginning to see the possible split as an opportunity to bring in new audiences.
In recent days, Ben Gvir has been careful to explain his rise in the polls by the fundamental difference between his current situation and the position of Otzma Yehudit in the previous rounds of elections. “We used to have an audience, but there was no proof that we would be able to pass. People who supported us all along began to fear at the moment of truth that we wouldn’t pass, and preferred to go with what they thought was safe. Today we are in a different world (and with a different budget), I am a serving Knesset member who comes with receipts, and the polls also show that the support for us is only growing.”
Therefore, this time Netanyahu also tends to see Ben Gvir as an independent figure who is able to bring new audiences who do not see a worthy alternative in any existing party. Those who will vote for Otzma Yehudit or who will stay at home.
In this scenario of a separate run, the main risk that Netanyahu is warning about is that Smotrich, who is supported by the religious-nationalist crowd, is strong in the ultra-Orthodox area, but may fall below the percentage of approval. For now, the polls are favorable to him, but past experience teaches Because the ultra-Orthodox audience alone is not enough to pass the blocking percentage.
The stated intention with which Smotrich comes to the primaries, which will be held in his party next week, is to open the ranks of the party to additional “knitted” audiences, but according to the composition of the candidates, the great news for the moderate and lite religious-nationalist public is not expected to come.
If in a few weeks it turns out that one of the parties, Smotrich’s or Ben Gabir’s, does not pass the percentage of obstruction – the move to split on the right will endanger Netanyahu’s chance of reaching 61 mandates and returning to the residence on Balfour Street. Therefore, these days he is closely following the polls and developments – and will soon make decisions accordingly.
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