The Agreement of Paris it is no longer just respected, but passed. On all fronts, from financing to poor countries, for which the failure of the Cop 26 it would be a death sentence, at the maximum threshold for global warming, until the closure of coal plants, the most polluting fossil fuel. But the first two days of COP 26 are not enough to make the situation clearer. Certainly the Paris Agreement cannot be overcome from 197 countries, i.e. all the parties that have signed the Framework Convention of United Nations on climate change (Unfccc), but at least those who have the resources to be able to reverse course today should do it. To the World Leaders Summit, opening ceremony of the second day of COP 26, the British prime minister Boris Johnson recalls his presence in Paris “when we agreed on zero emissions”, explaining that the promises of the time risk being a ‘bla bla bla’: “The wrath of the world would be irrepressible“. At the summit we talk about the main issues on which to go further, “even beyond the G20” adds the Italian premier, Mario Draghi, according to which “money is not a problem, it must be spent well and quickly”. And so aim for stay below 1.5 ° C of heating but, specifies the French premier Emmanuel Macron, making “this objective credible”.
OBSTACLES REMAIN – It will not be easy at all, given that no agreement has even been reached between the G20 countries on net zero emissions by 2050 and if at COP 26, Narendra Modi, prime minister of a strategic country like India, in the end declares that he is aiming for that target for the 2070 (but also that by 2030, the country will get half of its energy from renewable sources). As underlined by Draghi, “we are talking about countries in a different phase of their economic history”. In the speech written sent in Scotlandinstead, the Chinese president Xi Jinping, absent from the top, does not make any new significant commitments: Beijing remains until 2060, such as Indonesia, Russia and Saudi Arabia, but calls on all states to “keep their promises, formulate realistic visions and goals and do their best to promote the implementation of measures against climate change in line with the conditions of each nation “. Clear message. “Undoubtedly there are inconsistent behaviors and this weakens the position of virtuous countries” comments Draghi, saying that India, however, “helped a lot at the G20”. And he says: “I do not believe much is achieved by indicating Guilty countries e innocent. The innocent are very few and the guilty are many ”. Finally, he added that the “diplomacy of confrontation is useless”.
THE 100 BILLION COMMITMENT IS NOT ENOUGH – The Secretary General of the United Nations António Guterres underlines that “the commitment of 100 billion dollars climate finance year in support of developing countries must become a reality ”. This has not been the case so far, the G20 countries have just committed themselves to the goal already missed in 2020. But today this is not enough: “Developing countries need much more resources to fight Covid-19, build resilience and pursuing sustainable development “. It is also a question of trust in strong, hitherto defaulting economies. Draghi remembers that theItaly will triple its contribution, coming to 7 billion dollars over the next five years, to help vulnerable countries by activating Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) through the International Monetary Fund to contribute to the $ 100 billion promise. And anticipates the upcoming announcement by the Minister for Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani (at COP with him) of “an ambitious initiative by Italy”.
THE DEATH SENTENCE – Financing for the poorest countries is really a crucial point. “The climate change – underlines Draghi – has serious repercussions on global peace and security. It can deplete natural resources and aggravate social tensions, lead to new migratory flows and contribute to terrorism and organized crime. Climate change it can divide us“. And Guterres recalls, in this regard, that “global warming is rapidly reaching the point of no return. Small island developing states, and others vulnerable, are experiencing it. For them, failure (of Cop 26, ed) is not a possibility. Failure is a death sentence ”. Regarding these investments, even if the G20 “has lost the opportunity to reinvigorate the goal of 100 billion dollars a year that should have been reached already last year”, for theOxfam Italy’s commitment is positive. “But as long as these are really additional resources and that they do not go to the detriment of other funding to support the most vulnerable countries”. For Misha Maslennikov, Oxfam Italia policy advisor on tax justice dossiers “it is necessary to start the process of creating an autonomous international organization in charge of supervising the debt restructuring”. It is no coincidence that the most concerned about the fate of Cop 26 and how the node will be managed fateful threshold of 1.5 ° C of global warming (which science requires not to overcome) are precisely the most vulnerable countries. As stated in Guardian gives Gaston Browne, prime minister of Antigua and Barbuda and president of the Alliance of Small Island States, which represents 39 countries. “For those with eyes to see, for those with ears to listen, for those with a heart to hear, we need 1.5 ° C. Two degrees are a death sentence for the people of Barbuda, Antigua, the Maldives, Dominica, Kenya and Mozambique, and for the people of Samoa and Barbados “he explains Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados who, in his COP 26 speech, pointing out the absence at the top of “some of the necessary figures”.
WHO IS MISSING AND WHAT IS MISSING – The reference to the Russian premier is clear Vladimir Putin, to Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (accused by activists who urged COP 26 delegates not to trust his promises, ed) and to the Chinese president Xi Jinping. “Our peoples are watching us, do we really have to leave Scotland without the results we need? Do some leaders present really believe they can survive on their own? Haven’t they learned anything from the pandemic? ” he asks Mia Mottley, recalling that the central banks of the richest countries have spent $ 25 billion on ‘Quantitative Easing’ over the past 13 years. “We need an annual increase in special drawing rights of 500 billion dollars a year for 20 years, placed in a trust, to finance the transition: this is the real gap that must be bridged, not the 50 billion proposed for adaptation climatic. And if 500 billion seems like a lot to you, guess what, it’s only 2% of what was spent on Quantitative Easing “. From Beijing, in the meantime, a piqued response arrives with respect to the disappointment expressed by the US president, Joe Biden, due to China’s lack of ambition. The spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang Wenbin, remember that in the last 200 years of industrialization, developed countries have had “an inescapable responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions”, which “historically United States they refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and withdrew fromParis Agreement, seriously undermining the confidence and effectiveness of global cooperation in tackling climate change ”and that“ the cumulative US historical per capita emissions are eight times those of China ”.
ON WHAT AND HOW TO INVEST – In fact, in his speech, President Joe Biden he apologizes for the decision of his predecessor, Donald Trump, to leave theParis Agreement: “The US has not only returned to the table, but leads by example. We have to invest in clean energy and that is what we will do, reducing emissions by 2030“. Prime Minister Boris Johnson adds: “We have the technologies, the ideas” and also the funding, there are “tens of trillions, to defuse the bomb”. We can, for example, say enough to coal-fired power plants: “By 2030 for rich countries, by 2040 for others. If we wait it will be more expensive ”. For now, the G20 has pledged to stop financing new coal plants abroad by the end of this year, a decision that had already been announced for several countries (including China). In these hours, however, various organizations have expressed disappointment for the lack of a similar commitment on the internal side and for the gradual elimination of other fossil fuels. “This means – underlines Oxfam – that harmful coal plants can be built for another ten years”. Draghi explains that it is necessary to focus on renewables “in particular by developing new batteries and going beyond the current lithium technology” but underlines “The limits” that could do not reach the targets for 2030 and 2050. So “we must start developing viable alternatives” and, in the meantime, “we must invest in innovative technologies for carbon capture”. Globally, “money can no longer be a constraint if we get the private sector on our side – he says – I would really like to invite all multilateral development banks and World Bank, which today does very little on the climate, to make a serious commitment to sharing risks with the private sector ”.
A RACE AGAINST TIME – But despite finding the money, what is missing is time. Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP, the United Nations Climate Change Program, explained that “to have a chance to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C, the world has eight years to reduce annual emissions by an additional 28 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, in addition to what is promised in the updated NDCs and other commitments for 2030. It means almost halve emissions of gas serra. What do the researchers think? According to a survey conducted by the journal Nature between 233 researchers who are part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only 4% of them believe that it is possible to stay below 1.5 ° C, while 20% expect COP26 countries to be able to limit to 2 degrees or minus the rise in temperature. But, as reiterated, it is a death sentence.