DECRYPTION – The confidence shown by the government does not seem to correspond to the reality of the economic situation.
This is a well-rehearsed scenario, used by all presidents: displaying great ambitions in terms of stabilizing public finances at the start of their mandate, categorically assuring them as long as possible that they will be kept, and ending up invoking the crisis to justify that they could not be carried out at the end of the mandate.
For the time being, despite an economic situation which is becoming more complicated, the executive is still in the sequence where it displays its confidence. Bruno Le Maire has indeed confirmed once again his objective of maintaining the public deficit at 5% of GDP next year. However, the conditions increasingly seem to be in place for this budget target to be one of the most difficult to achieve next year. And this for several objective reasons.
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Fears of a sharp slowdown in economic activity – or even a recession – in 2023 seriously complicate the outlook. The less there will be growth next year (the progress of the…
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