In a meeting held on February 4, which attracted enormous international attention, the President of China stated Xi Jinping and the president of Russia Vladimir Putin that “there are no limits” to their partnership, and also that a new era has opened in international relations between the countries. At their meeting last week at the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization” summit in Uzbekistan, they even declared the strengthening of cooperation and strategic-security coordination between the powers.
The two leaders, motivated by a similar worldview and shared strategic interests, emphasized their distaste for the US and NATO, as well as their determination to change the status quo and the existing world order. Referring to Russia’s struggle in Ukraine and China’s challenge to the US regarding Taiwan, Xi Jinping even stated in the Chinese state media that Beijing is ready to cooperate with Moscow “to play a central role in demonstrating the responsibility of the great powers and to bring stability and positive energy to a chaotic world.”
The two neighboring powers, China and Russia, are key players in world politics. They are located in an important geopolitical axis and in the global economic and industrial center in East and Central Asia, surrounded by the most powerful countries in the region, primarily Japan, India and Indonesia. Along with the strategic gaps vis-à-vis their neighbors and the asymmetry in their strengths and resources, China and Russia share a common historical and ideological background, extensive cultural and trade ties, as well as a long border that stretches over about 4,000 km.
The complex relationship between them took shape starting in the 17th century, and especially since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War (1991). The ties between the countries are based on deep enmity and opposition to the US, alongside a common interest and vision to curb American hegemony and its global influence. All this while strengthening their position, power and involvement in Asia and the international arena.
And so, alongside a broad spectrum of long-term motives and complementary and conflicting interests that have developed between them over the years, the two maintain various political, military, security and economic interrelationships. All of these move across a wide spectrum of relationships described as strategic partnership alongside competition and rivalry. The complex relationship between the two is affected by threats and opportunities, along with political culture, different worldviews and ideologies that dictate their interests and goals, as well as the policies they take together and separately towards Asia and the world in general and towards the US in particular.
A turning point in Ukraine
The establishment of relations between China and Russia, which began with their signing of a military agreement (1993) and its extension to a friendship agreement (2001), has turned over the years into a long series of regional cooperation agreements and multilateral strategic partnerships. For example, the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, which is still used today as an important geopolitical axis linking Russia to China, India, Pakistan and the countries of Central Asia.
The establishment of dialogue mechanisms and the promotion of the strategic partnership between China and Russia are reflected, among other things, in increasing the scope of trade, the supply of Russian energy resources (mainly oil, coal and natural gas) as well as in the export of mechanical and electronic equipment, advanced technologies, military equipment and military equipment (such as anti-aircraft systems Russian S-400 model).
All this while expanding foreign policy and involvement in crises and international forums, initiating projects and strategic networks, establishing relations with many countries throughout Africa and the Middle East, integration between Asian and European countries (such as the EEU agreement) as well as the integration of other countries around the world, including Iran.
However, despite the mutual rapprochement between the superpowers, a closer look illustrates the difference in their strategic approach. China focuses on the development and institutionalization of global economic and commercial cooperation such as the “Belt and Road” project linking Asia, Europe, Africa and countries in the Middle East, including Israel. China is trying to position its power as a global economic power and in the process promote stability, flourishing and prosperity around the world.
On the other hand, Russia acts subversively. It projects its military power in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, and takes a belligerent-aggressive stance on the security and political level, the aim of which is to provoke chaos and instability. The best and most recent example of this is the war in Ukraine.
Ironically, the imposition of international sanctions on Russia following the annexation of Crimea (2014) and their worsening following the war in Ukraine, pushed Russia into the arms of China and even strengthened the strategic partnership between them. Recent publications indicate that since 2013 the volume of trade between the two has grown from 88.8 billion dollars to 146.9 billion dollars in 2021. Also, there has been an increase in the proportion of the yuan (the Chinese currency) within the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia from 0.1% in 2015 to 13.2% today.
If that is not enough, Russia, which is considered the world’s largest exporter of energy resources and agricultural products (such as wheat, grains and fertilizers), overcomes the embargo imposed on it by the USA and the European Union countries and even sells oil, coal and natural gas to China and India in large volumes and at reduced prices. In the meantime, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s leading oil supplier (through the oil pipeline that runs through Eastern Siberia) to the extent of 1.68 million barrels per day – an increase of 7.6% compared to 2021.
At this point it is important to clarify that China, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants (compared to Russia’s approximately 145 million inhabitants), is the second largest economy in the world after the United States. Its value, estimated at 17.7 trillion dollars, is ten times greater than the value of the Russian economy – which is considered 11 in the world with only about 1.79 trillion dollars.On the face of it, it appears that the imposition of sanctions further strengthens Chinese dominance and increases Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.
At the same time, the Chinese dilemma regarding its strategic orientation vis-à-vis the West is intensifying. On the one hand, China is a major ally and trading partner of Russia. On the other hand, it is leading a trade war against the USA, but at the same time it cannot give up its huge trade volume with it and with the countries of the European Union, which in the past year amounted to 650 and 800 billion dollars respectively.
asymmetrical relations
From a systemic point of view, the imposition of heavy sanctions on Moscow, designed to curb the Russian war machine, has so far achieved the opposite result of what the West would have wished for. Using the “weapon” of sanctions led to the tightening of strategic ties between Beijing and Moscow, which are already bearing positive “fruits” for them, including the promotion of ties and commercial-economic activity between them.
At the same time, strengthening the partnership between the parties sharpens the asymmetry in the status and power of China and Russia. On the one hand, it increases Putin’s sense of power. On the other hand, the power that Putin supposedly demonstrates – evading the sanctions – actually rests on the broad Chinese shoulders, illustrating Russia’s dependence on China. At the same time, the tightening partnership between the two highlights Xi Jinping’s dominant position and China’s economic power in Asia and in general, within the framework of the trade war with the US and the inter-blockade struggle in the international arena.
In view of this background, the Israeli government, regardless of the leader at its head, must learn to conduct itself with restraint, caution and discretion in dealing with each of the three world powers. This is with the aim of maintaining as much as possible its power, its position and its neutral position in the complex geopolitical situation that has arisen, at least until the picture becomes clearer regarding the war in Europe and the newly created balance of power in the international arena.
The author is an expert on geopolitics and international crises