We asked what will happen next year and for two weeks we have been collecting the answers. We presented some of them with Maya Rachlin in the evening program, later we will present more, because the answers continue to be collected, and more will continue until the end of the holiday period at least. Why is it good to predict events? After all, we know that our predictions often do not come true. But the forecast shows a level of expectations and mood. At the same time as the forecast of events, we also continue with the election forecast game of the index and here is news. It also won’t necessarily predict the election results better, but it gives an indication of what the voters are thinking, and where they assume the polls and commentators are wrong.
What will happen to us in 2018? We will see you contract
So what will happen next year? We will focus here on only two results out of quite a few that exist. In those that refer to leaders’ unsubstantiated promises in preparation for elections. We will discover that the public is a little less stupid than its leaders seem. No one believes the promises of the opposing camp, that’s pretty clear. Those who vote for religious Zionism do not believe in the promises of Merav Michaeli. Those who vote for Labor tend to underestimate Smotrich’s promises, or Benjamin Netanyahu’s.
Haredim and non-Orthodox: let’s crack the relationship challenge
This, as mentioned, is quite natural. What’s interesting is that the public doesn’t exactly believe the promises and scenarios painted by the leaders it does vote for. In other words, Benny Gantz’s voters are not really convinced that what he promises to do, he will actually do. Not all Shas voters believe that Aryeh Deri will really give them coupons for free food. The leaders promise that this is what is usually done, and that they hope that those who believe will be the ones who also put the decisive ballot in the ballot box. The public maintains reasonable vigilance, and healthy skepticism. We will present two pieces of evidence.
The first: the Supreme Court. Some promises we are forced to hear about the new arrangement that will be made in it. One promises revolution, one promises reform, another promises to protect the judges with her body. As if the court is Israel’s number one problem (it is not), as if as soon as there is a new Knesset far-reaching changes are expected (experience shows that it is not that simple), as if our lives depend on whether Shaked or Sa’ar will split the position of attorney general (the problem of Sa’ar, who chose a consultant who had already suffered a severe professional blow – mainly because she was not smart enough to get off the tree after receiving a hint), as if Israeli democracy depends on Galon preventing damage to the court (it is permissible to change the court a little, and Israel will not cease to be a democracy).
Be that as it may, we ask whether in the TPFG, next year, “legislation will be passed that will reduce the powers of the Supreme Court”. You can say yes, and then also choose when, until Hanukkah, until Pesach, or until next Rosh Hashanah. And you can also say no. The calculation is of course complicated, because in order to know if there is any programming at all that will pass legislation, you must first know who will win the elections. But we know that the voters of the right believe that the right is going to win – and soon we will also prove to you that this is what they think. If they think that the right is going to win, and if they listened to the many promises of the legislators from the right, Shlomo Karai, David Amsalem, Yitzhak Pindros, they should have told us yes – surely laws will be passed that will reduce the powers of the Supreme Court. Isn’t that why, among other things, they want a right-wing government? Isn’t that why the Likud, religious Zionism, Torah Judaism and Shas joined together?
This is what you would assume would happen. But that’s not what actually happens. We analyzed the predictions according to political camps. We have included the entire center: right-center, center and left-center. Why did we include? Because we assumed that some of the center-right supporters are voters who do not belong to the right-wing bloc. For you we left only “right” separately and only “left” separately and everything in between we connected. The result is interesting: on the left and in the center it is not assumed that the powers of the court will be reduced. This is interesting because the center-left is trying to convey a sense of urgency and panic over the possibility that the powers of the court will be reduced. But if their public assumes that the powers will not be reduced, it is not clear what exactly the panic is about (one can, of course, assume that their public assumes that the Netanyahu bloc will not win the elections, and therefore there will be no legislation. There is something to this).
But more interesting is what is happening on the right. We have already said: on the right there is a majority who believe that the Netanyahu bloc is going to win the elections. And if so, it should have been assumed that the generational dream of reducing the powers of the court would finally be fulfilled. And yet – a clear majority of right-wing supporters believe that the court’s powers will not be reduced this year. It is admittedly a smaller majority than the clear majority in the center and on the left, but still a clear majority. More than sixty percent say no. Maybe because they have experience, and they understand that much of the talk about reducing the powers of the court is empty rhetoric of politicians who have found a scarecrow to run into. Perhaps because they remember that Netanyahu already had several coalitions, and yet always blocked attempts to reduce the power of the court. Perhaps it is because they suspect that even within the narrow coalition of Netanyahu’s bloc there will be some troublemakers who will not make it possible to obtain a majority for reforms in the court (Yuli Edelstein, we are looking at you!). For some reason, they don’t believe. Want reforms? Of course they want to. Do you believe that Netanyahu will win? quite believe. Think there will be legal reforms? Oh, not really. Not the majority. interesting.
Say: maybe it’s just the bibists, who know that you can’t believe Netanyahu’s promises (wasn’t he the one who promised Gantz a rotation?). Here is a second example, which will show you that the situation is similar in other parties as well:
What is the election strategy of the center-left based on? This is not the whole strategy, but it is a significant thing that stands at its foundation: the belief that at a certain moment, perhaps right after the elections, when Netanyahu will no longer have a majority, he will have no choice and will retire. Either someone else in Likud will rise up and challenge him, or he will reach a plea agreement, or the ultra-Orthodox will force him, and threaten to go with Gantz. There is no chance that Netanyahu will survive another failure. Avigdor Lieberman dispelled such assessments even before previous election rounds. Gantz and Lapid are a little more cautious, but in background conversations, they and their associates are trying to convince that it is impossible that Netanyahu will really stay if he does not achieve the long-awaited 61. Either he will retire, or he will retire, to allow a government with the Likud without Netanyahu or a government without the Likud and with the ultra-orthodox parties. It is hard to imagine another coalition option.
Will Netanyahu retire this year? Likud voters obviously don’t think so. It’s natural, it’s expected. In the midst of an election campaign, and especially when they believe that Netanyahu is going to win, why would they assume that he intends to retire. Victory guarantees that he will stay, and victory is what they see before their eyes. But what about the voters of the other block? Do they believe that Netanyahu is going to retire? Well – the answer is no.
In the graph, we presented Yesh Atid voters, most of whom think that Netanyahu’s retirement is not imminent. But the situation is also similar in other anti-Bibi bloc parties. More than seventy percent of Gantz’s voters told us that Netanyahu will not retire in 2018. 65% of Meretz voters said he would not retire. 75% of Labor voters said he would not retire. And in simple words: promises, hints, rumors, everything related to Netanyahu’s possible retirement – none of this convinces the voters who oppose the possibility of him returning to the prime ministership.
The forecast for the Israel Defense Forces: Netanyahu remains – and the powers of the court remain. Apparently, a contradiction. In fact, it’s been that way for quite a few years, so why not this time?