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In France, the draft budget for 2023 and that of Social Security must be presented this Monday in the Council of Ministers. A trial by fire to come for the Borne government if it decides to back its very controversial pension reform.
For the draft budget, the path seems narrow for the government. Protect purchasing power against inflation or contain the public deficit. The choice will undoubtedly be difficult. However, the executive does not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Unless it finds allies on the opposition benches, the government might be tempted to force textand therefore without a vote, using the famous article 49.3 of the Constitution.
The other potentially explosive project is that of financing Social Security. Its deficit should stand at 6.8 billion euros next year, against 17.8 billion expected in 2022. A marked improvement in the accounts due in particular to a sharp increase in contribution receipts, in the wake of the inflation and rising wages.
But it is the old age branch that is likely to start rising again. Up to 13.7 billion euros in deficits are expected in 2026. This probably explains President Emmanuel Macron’s desire to quickly initiate his pension reform.
However, the draft bill does not include any pension reform measures, while the executive is considering introducing an increase in the legal age or the contribution period by an amendment during the debates in Parliament in the month of october.
This scenario, however, comes up against reluctance within the majority itself, while the left and far-right oppositions threaten to draw motions of censure in the Assembly.
(And with AFP)
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