Few believe it is a coincidence: the two Baltic Sea gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 reported “unprecedented damage” within a short time – in one day, on three lines. Two leaks were discovered at Nord Stream 1 northeast of the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm, which belongs to Denmark and is located on Sweden’s south coast, and one at Nord Stream 2 southeast of the island. A drop in pressure was detected in both tubes on Monday.
Images from the Danish Navy show bubbles over a kilometer in diameter forming on the sea surface. This has no impact on security of supply, because the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline was completed in autumn 2021 but did not go into operation. Gas transport through Nord Stream 1 (in operation since 2011) was first restricted by Gazprom after the sanctions against Russia and then stopped.
“Targeted attack on infrastructure”
In Poland, Germany, Russia and Denmark, a targeted attack on the European gas infrastructure is considered conceivable. We know that there were “really attacks on the infrastructure,” said German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck. According to the Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the authorities had come to the clear conclusion that these were “deliberate acts and not an accident”. The Swedish government also assumes sabotage. The Kremlin was “extremely concerned”. In return, Ukraine blamed Russia for the leaks. “We can clearly see that there was an act of sabotage,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
The pipelines are laid in such a way that it is “highly unlikely” that several lines would be damaged at the same time, for example by a ship accident, said Nord Stream spokesman Ulrich Lissek. Before the gas leaks, measuring stations in Sweden and Denmark recorded powerful detonations caused by blasts or explosions under water. According to seismologist Björn Lund, there is no doubt that these were blasts or explosions.
The leaks are buoying gas prices: The price of TTF futures contracts – the benchmark for gas prices in the European natural gas market –, recently on a downward trajectory, climbed up to 19 percent from the previous day.
“boost” on the stock exchanges
The leaks are boosting gas prices: the price of TTF futures contracts – the benchmark for gas prices in the European natural gas market – recently plummeted, climbing eight percent from the previous day.
Not only authorities in Denmark and Germany are investigating the incidents, but also NATO. “We are closely monitoring the situation in the Baltic Sea,” said a NATO representative. Crisis teams were convened in Denmark and Sweden on Tuesday. In the event of an attack, only state actors come into question in view of the technical complexity involved.
New pipeline put into operation
Possibly just a coincidence: Parallel to the search for the cause of the gas leaks, a “diversion” of the existing Europipe II pipeline route opened in Goleniow, Poland on Tuesday. This leads from Norway through the North Sea to Lower Saxony. Norwegian natural gas can be transported eastwards through the new Baltic Pipe. “This day marks a crucial geopolitical step for all of us,” said Frederiksen at the inauguration of the compressor station. “The era of Russian dominance on gas is coming to an end – an era marked by blackmail, threats and coercion,” said Poland’s Morawiecki.
Gas is to flow through the EUR 1.6 billion pipeline from October 1st. In 2024, 7.5 billion cubic meters of gas should come to Poland in this way.