Denmark, at that time far from being the developed and technological country it is today, it was in a dramatic situation. 90% of the electricity it produced was generated with oil, and 90% of the crude oil it consumed came from the Middle East. “For the Danes, the embargo was a shock,” summarizes Professor Mogens Rüdiger, from the Department of History at Aalborg University, in an interview by video conference.
Consequently, the authorities ordered one drastic decrease in consumption. Driving on Sundays was banned and the speed limit on the road was reduced. It was also decreed that urban lighting be cut off during the long, cold nights, while the population was implored to do their part and lower the temperatures of the heating thermostats. “The Danes collaborated and contributed collectively,” explains Rüdiger, who has studied the scar left by this and other energy crises in Denmark.
The Iranian revolution of 1979 and the consequent spiral in crude oil prices ended up underpinning the country’s strategy to lay the foundations of the energy independence. Norway would do it by exploring its hydrocarbon reserves and Sweden by following the nuclear route. Denmark would choose another option: to bet on wind technology. In 1976, the country installed the first turbines; in 2021, 43% of the energy consumed in Denmark came from wind turbines located mostly in the Baltic and North Seas.
If it had not been for that strategic decision, Russia’s current energy war – which seems to have as its penultimate episode the sabotage of two gas pipelines in Danish and Swedish waters – would have been catastrophic for Denmark. “We learned that the solution is to switch to renewables as quickly as possible,” says Rüdiger.
Historic opportunity
The Danish case shows that, in thecurrent geopolitical context, Spain has a historic opportunity in the energy transition. If the central goal of abandoning hydrocarbons is fight against climate change and fulfill the commitments of emissions reduction, the virtual Russian gas embargo on the Old Continent brings together, for once, ecological, economic and geostrategic interests. Achieving green energy sovereignty can be an engine of deep and beneficial transformations.
The latest data from Electricity Network Spain – the company that manages the electricity system – already realize that something is changing. In 2021, Spain was the second European country to generate the most electricity from wind and solar, behind only Germany. Although the wind sector has more weight in the matrix as a whole, the jump in national production was particularly notable in photovoltaics (+37% annually).
“The sector is at its best”, summarizes José Donoso, director general of the Spanish Photovoltaic Union (UNEF), the employer of the sector. “Last weekend, 30% of Spanish electricity came from the photovoltaic sector,” he explains. Donoso predicts that by the end of the decade, solar energy – both that generated by large parks and self-consumption installations – may be “the first or second largest in terms of installed capacity”. It would be a milestone for a country historically dependent on energy imports.
Far from touching the ceiling
Installed solar capacity at the end of 2021, according to REE, was 15,174 MW, up 30% from the previous year. But the country is far – very far – from having reached the ceiling. “There are three key factors to determine a country’s potential: the available territory, the hours of sunshine and the technology. The technology is the same for everyone, but compared to Italy and Portugal, for example, Spain has no competitor in terms of territory and hours.’
A recurring argument of climate deniers or skeptics is that renewables are unreliable; that you can’t tell when the sun will shine and the wind will blow. It is a fallacy. Technology companies are already able to provide precise forecasts on the production of photovoltaic energy in a specific territory. They do this by analyzing millions of satellite data produced over nearly three decades. The margin of error is only 4%.
Solargis, with headquarters in Bratislava and a hundred employees, including several Spanish scientists, is one of them. It is dedicated to the commercialization of data on solar irradiation. “Our mission as a company is to disprove the fact that the performance of a photovoltaic installation cannot be predicted with certainty,” explains Francisco Pliego, head of sales for Europe at Solargis.
Pliego says that to make its maps and global comparisons, data is drawn from a historical series that goes back to 1994 and is updated every 15 minutes. With customers on all continents, Solargis has participated in the Global Solar Atlas of the World Bank, an interactive map in which you can find out the photovoltaic potential of any place on the planet[ER6]. The data confirm that Spain is the continental European country with the most outstanding photovoltaic potential.
Donoso, from UNEF, recalls that this privileged situation of Spain is reinforced by the low population density, which allows there to be large areas available for the installation of panels. “This competitiveness gives us a great opportunity for development. Industrial companies will want to relocate their factories to Spain because that’s where the cheap and clean energy will be,” he says. Since the photovoltaic generating poles are autonomous communities that have suffered depopulation (Extremadura, Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha and Castilla y León), this emerging sector can launch a virtuous cycle of development that generates investments, employment and repopulation.
Extremadura, toe
Of all these autonomous communities, the one that has most decidedly embraced this energy revolution is Estremadura. It leads national photovoltaic production with 25% of the total and has a plan for all its electricity to come from renewables by the end of the decade.
The president of the Junta de Extremadura, Guillermo Fernández Vara, has evoked this week an era of “dizzying changes” for the region. “For the first time in history, the industry is looking for what the region has and we can have a certain ‘historical revenge’, because we will see people coming to work here from other places, just as those from here left to other areas”.
Extremadura plans to use less than 1% of the territory to produce green energy. Despite everything, in some areas the arrival of large parks is perceived with suspicion, due to the impact on the landscape and tourism. Another fear is that rural areas will become mere solar energy producers intended to supply cities and industrial centers. These are issues that require political attention, Donoso believes, but without losing sight of the fact that the double crisis looming over the continent represents an extraordinary opportunity for the country.