From Lima
A coup in progress, has denounced President Pedro Castillo in response to the accusation of corruption that the prosecution has filed against him before Congress. An accusation that seeks to remove him from the presidency, something that the extreme right has been seeking since the beginning of the government. In a voluminous file of more than 300 pages, The National Prosecutor, Patricia Benavides, accuses the Head of State and his political and family circle of having formed a “criminal organization” to benefit financially from rigged tenders. The prosecution’s case is based on testimonies that accuse the president, some of them former collaborators of the president. Denounced for corruption, they have exchanged their accusatory testimony against Castillo for his freedom and benefits in the proceedings against him. From the government they question its veracity and demand evidence to corroborate these claims. The president has responded that those accusations are false.
“Persecution”
“This is a chase. The execution of a form of coup d’état has begun. We are accused of something we have never done. We are going to discard all the accusations, we are going to continue defending democracy”, Castillo said at a conference with the foreign press, in which he was accompanied by his ministers.
The government demands that this tax complaint be rejected by Congress for “not being supported by evidence” and for being an accusation that “violates the Constitution.” Under the Constitution, an incumbent president can only be impeached for treason, impeding elections, illegally shutting down Congress, or impeding its operation. None of these crimes is included in the indictment, which is for criminal organization, influence peddling and collusion. The right juggles arguments to try to justify the breach of the constitutional article that prevents Castillo from being accused of the crimes he is accused of.
Prosecutor Benavides has been denounced by the government for going against the Constitution by presenting this accusation. She is also accused of using her position to protect her sister, her judge in an investigation for freeing drug traffickers in exchange for bribes, for obstructing a tax investigation of a drug organization. and another investigation into a judicial mafia with ties to Fujimori. Without responding to these serious charges, the Nation’s prosecutor has accused those who remember her dark background of being part of the alleged criminal organization that her office says Castillo heads.
The fiscal accusation against the president is in the Subcommittee of Constitutional Accusations of the Congress. If it is approved in this instance, it goes to the Permanent Commission and then to the plenary session of Congress for a final decision. In all three instances, approval is by simple majority. It is a procedure that according to the congressmen could take about three months. There are opposition legislators who have not joined the coup bloc and the correlation of forces is adjusted, the result is unpredictable.
Plan B y plan C
As an alternative to the approval of a fiscal accusation questioned in its legality, the right has pulled out of the sleeve a constitutional article never applied that speaks in a generic way of “temporary suspension” of the president. It has been understood that this temporary suspension would have to do with a health problem or force majeure that prevents the president from holding office, but that is not specified and the opposition that wants to dismiss Castillo seeks to regulate this article on the run including reasons that can be applied to suspend Castillo. And they would regulate that for this only a simple majority would be necessary. It is cynically argued that the suspension would “only” last while the prosecution is given time to deepen the investigations and if Castillo proves innocent he would be reinstated in office, but that process would take several years, so in practice the temporary suspension would be a dismissal in disguise
A third option that is handled in Congress to remove Castillo is to insist again on his dismissal due to the ambiguous figure of “permanent moral incapacity”. It is a summary process, which can be defined in ten days. The problem for its promoters is that in this case it must be approved by two-thirds of the unicameral Congress of 130 seats, votes that they do not have now. The extreme right has already failed twice in an impeachment for this cause. But they hope that now the prosecution’s accusation will strengthen them and they can add more votes.
Also the vice president
If Castillo is removed from the presidency, the vice president would succeed him In Boluarte. But the extreme right has already initiated a process to disable it. They accuse her of having signed documents as a leader of a social club when, it is argued, as a minister – Boluarte is also the Minister of Development and Social Inclusion – she could not hold a position in a private institution due to a possible conflict of interest, but these are formal procedures necessary for the transfer of the position, and there is no relationship with the State or conflict of interest with her position as minister. It is the excuse found to remove her from it. If Castillo and Boluarte fall, the presidency would be assumed by the head of CongressJosé Williams, a retired general accused of human rights violations. In that case, the far-right coup would have been consummated.
“The fiscal accusation against Castillo does not have solid foundations, everything is affirmed conditionally, it is part of a coup scenario. The prosecution is part of a coup conspiracy along with the right wing”, he pointed out to Page/12 sociologist and university professor Sinesio López. Regarding the scenarios that are opening up, López says: “Actions such as those of the extreme right in Congress and the prosecution are irresponsible, they can lead us to a very critical juncture. If Castillo falls, there may be a fascist exit. Another option is a great popular mobilization so that everyone leaves, that is to say also the Congress, and there are general elections, which in that scenario would be the best option. If he does not succeed in removing Castillo, the extreme right will continue to permanently charge against him and we would have a cornered government, immobilized, with a Castillo that has neither a vision for the country nor a clear program, and it is most likely that we will continue to vegetate in chaos.” .
The fate of this fiscal accusation, and therefore of the government, will not depend so much on its solidity or its legality as on the strength of the votes in a Parliament that has more than 80 percent of citizen rejection. The extreme right that from the first day has wanted to end the government of the rural professor who defeated them electorally feels close to its objective. This Saturday he organized a mobilization, little attended, against Castillo in the center of Lima. Castillo is weakened, on the ropes, cornered by the harassment of Congress, the prosecution and the media, but also by his management problems, the abandonment of his main proposals for change and characters in his environment who are protagonists of corruption scandals. The discredit of a good part of his accusers, from a right-wing closely linked to corruption, such as Fujimori, who now cynically present themselves as anti-corruption fighters, but without convincing, favors him. The country lives decisive times.