The slap on the cheek given by the Saudis to the President of the United States, Joe Biden, as part of the decision of OPEC Plus toreduced global oil production, continues to reverberate and has implications for Israel’s relations with Riyadh as well.
● Next week at Globes: all the senior regulators are coming to talk about the state of the economy
This week, the Saudi Foreign Ministry published a statement of support for the Australian government’s decision to revoke the previous government’s recognition of West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Although a Saudi official told Globes that there is no direct and close connection and that the Foreign Ministry’s announcement is the fundamental and long-standing position of Saudi Arabia. However, he added that the deterioration of relations with the American administration has a “moderating” effect when it comes to promoting moves to which Israel is associated.
Let’s recall that the Saudis approved flights of Israeli planes over their territory, but the issue is still stuck due to the non-response from Oman, which is also on the way. In Oman, positions are being coordinated with Riyadh, and it can be assumed that the crisis with the United States does not help to obtain approval from them for the passage of the planes.
The Saudi alternative to Biden
Washington should be very concerned about the Saudi attitude towards them. According to the Saudi official, the OPEC Plus decision is an economic decision designed to maintain a reasonable price for a barrel of oil, and the income of the exporting countries, most of which depend on it for their economy.
In the background, Washington is interested in reaching a floor price that will help the Democratic Party. “What do we owe to this party, many of whose leaders insult us, call for sanctions to be imposed on us and prefer to preach morals to us from their comfortable seats when we are fighting against terrorist organizations,” he insisted.
According to him, the Americans no longer have exclusivity over the region or over them, “especially when they don’t act like our allies.” The same source added: “The conduct of the Biden administration pushes us to the other alternatives. China and Russia are legitimate powers, and even if we have disagreements with them on various issues, they can provide us with what we need – including advanced weapons systems.”
And back to relations with Israel. According to the same Saudi source, representatives of Israeli companies and businessmen come to Riyadh every day and are involved in large projects, including in the future city of Niom. “But don’t expect any public political progress in the near term, and that’s also your fault,” the same source clarified. “You don’t have a government that you can talk to and trust.”
The dilemma of the gas agreement
As of this writing, the High Court of Justice has not yet ruled on the petitions against the government’s approval of the gas agreement with Lebanon, and the demand to bring it to the Knesset for approval. Senior government officials express unease with the issue and the prime minister’s criticism of the opposition on the issue, including some of those who voted in favor of the agreement. A senior minister says that beyond As for the simple democratic matter, it is also a political mistake: “Instead of getting legitimacy from the Knesset, in a vote where there is a good chance for a majority while recruiting elements from the opposition, we are humiliated and in the end they will force us to go there. With the approval of the Knesset, even Netanyahu will not be able to cancel the agreement if he forms a right-wing government.”
This position is supported by MK Yariv Levin, a close associate of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. In a conversation with Globes, he said that if the agreement is approved by the Knesset, a new government will not be able to cancel it. But if it is approved only by a vote in the government, it will be possible to appeal it, since “the approval procedure is not proper” according to him.
MK Levin also added that Yair Lapid has a majority in the Knesset (with the support of the Arab Knesset members), although he noted that some members of the coalition also disapprove and it is not clear how they will vote. Among other things, he mentioned the name of MK Abir Cara.
Palestinian pressure is increasing
This week we published about the talks between Israel and Egypt involving the Palestinian Authority, the European Union and the United States on the development of the Marin gas field located 36 km deep in the sea off the Gaza Strip.
Minister Karin Elharer confirmed this publication, and clarified that the decision not to promote the move was due to the advance of the elections. Her office said: “Following an agreement between Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, a request came six months ago to promote the development of the Marin gas reservoir.”
Already in July, the Minister of Energy decided, due to the announcement of elections, that we should wait to promote the issue to the next government. It’s hard not to wonder why the agreement with Lebanon was also rejected. A senior political official tells Globes that in the case of Lebanon we are talking about talks that started at the beginning of the year, but he also admits that the breakthrough happened only at the end of August, long after the announcement of the elections.
In addition, in the Gaza Strip the tangle of the maritime border is even more complex than in Lebanon, and there was no chance to advance the move in a short period of time. According to a senior Palestinian official, the Palestinian Authority wants to promote the issue as part of its energy solutions and economic base. “It is clear to us that it is better for a new government to be formed in Israel, and it does not matter who forms it, even if Netanyahu heads it with Itamar Ben Gabir and Bezalel Smotrich. Netanyahu has known in the past to make agreements with us.”
His words were corroborated by an Israeli minister involved in contacts with the Palestinians. According to him, the Palestinians understand that politically it will be very difficult to move forward, and against the background of the shaky status of the PA, and the expected death of Abu Mazen, they need a stable Israeli government that can discuss with them and coordinate with them at least in the civil and economic aspects.