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Most of the actions currently taken by the parties, especially the right-wing parties, have one goal: to increase the percentage of votes among their “home” audiences. Netanyahu is the clear example: the chairman of the Likud has been moving around the country for two months in a mobile glass box, under slogans that warn of disasters if he does not come to power after the elections. Not to convince those who are undecided, or to transfer votes from other parties to his party, but so that potential voters who considered staying at home – will come to the ballot box, and they will put a sick note in it.
This tactic reflects a correct understanding of the mandate map, but not necessarily of its causes. Indeed, about a third of the population does not intend to vote. A comprehensive study that we conducted over time, in an internet sample of 1,201 people, reveals an expectation of a voter turnout similar to that of the 2021 elections – approximately 67%. Another true fact is that most of them are right-handed. There are almost no leftists among the non-voters: 53% associate themselves with the right, 31% with the political center and only 5% with the left (the rest refused to answer). In other words, the left actually exhausts its voting percentages. The non-voters are potential for the right and the center.
However, the research data reveal, in our opinion, a lack of understanding (or insistence on avoiding) the real reasons for the decision of these 2 million people not to go to the polls. For the sake of explanation, we would like to present some more data that emerged from the research we undertook at the beginning of the election campaign.
The population group that does not intend to vote includes slightly more women (54%), and a high proportion of young people up to the age of 29 (41%), those with low incomes (39%) and those with medium education or less (53%). Ethnically, 42% define themselves as Mizrahi or Sephardi, 10% as having mixed ancestry and only 29% Ashkenazim (the rest did not answer). The majority of the public that does not intend to vote is concentrated in the periphery, and more often in cities with a socioeconomic rating of 3-5.
This is a distinct group of people of low social and economic status, and not only the demographic data unites them. When we decided to examine in depth the reasons for non-voting, we also added subjective assessment questions to our questionnaires, regarding the economic situation of the respondents, the expectations for their future and the feelings towards the state institutions. Here too, the differences in the answers between those who intend to vote in the elections and those who do not – are sharp and clear.
The non-voters evaluate their economic situation as bad subjectively as well, and when asked about the future, they tended to estimate that their economic situation will not improve. Only a quarter of them believe that their children’s future in Israel will be better than theirs (compared to 36% of the voters). When asked what policy issues are important to them, 48% of the non-voters answered that the cost of living is the most important issue, and almost no one was interested in security issues or the status of the legal system (compared to those who do intend to vote).
Perhaps more importantly and painfully, it is very evident that the attitude, connection and pride in the State of Israel is weaker among those who do not plan to vote. In this group, they will show less pride in relation to Israeli achievements in sports or science, for example. Only 57% of them stated that they are interested in their children enlisting for significant service in the IDF, compared to 76% among those who plan to vote in the elections. 38% of them are considering immigrating from Israel, compared to 25% among those who will vote in the elections. In additional questions, they show a lesser willingness to contribute to the country on the road Various.
The feeling of alienation from the state and its institutions is also expressed in the degree of trust in the police and the courts (69% of them do not believe that citizens receive equal treatment from the police, and 63% from the courts), and in a sense of inability to influence what is happening in the country (only 16% feel that they can influence the government, compared to 37 % among voters). An attitude not far from this is expressed towards the politicians – 59% of the non-voters answered that all politicians are corrupt in their eyes, and to the same extent. Simply put, the unwillingness to vote is the property of about a third of the population, almost entirely on the right and the soft right, and is correlated with a loss of trust in the government systems, and a low economic situation.
Admittedly, all over the world groups from the economic and social periphery tend to vote at lower rates, and it still seems to us that the Israeli situation is unique. In the last 20 years, the general voter turnout in the elections in Israel has decreased by about 10%, more or less. In the 1999 elections, the rate was 78.7%. In the last election, it stood at 67.2%. True, it is a slow and long process that had ups and downs, and the numbers still speak for themselves.
The group of non-voters is one of the reasons for the ongoing political crisis. It has been three years that the right wing on the political map has not been able to reach a sufficient number of votes to hold power for a long time
If we look at the “risk groups” for non-voting, according to the profile that emerges from our research, we will find an even more dramatic drop in turnout, which may lead us to assume that looking at general turnout rates slightly masks the true phenomenon. According to the Election Commission data, in Bat Yam 70% voted in 1999, 56% in 2015, 52.2% voted in 2020 and 48.6% in March 2021. In Tiberias – 74% voted in 1999, but only 61% in 2015, and only 55.7% in 2021. In Be’er Sheva – 71% vote in 1999, but 55.5% in 2021. These are, of course, just a few examples. In established areas, by comparison, the situation is completely different: in Kfar Saba the turnout in the last elections was 70%, in Hod Hasharon – 74%, in Givatayim 69% and Kiryat Ono 73%.
In this context, it is worth remembering another fact that makes us assume that the social differences in Israel are reflected even more sharply in the voting rates: at any given moment, about a million Israelis are abroad for trips, studies or work trips, and when this happens during the elections – they do not vote. Naturally, Most of those absent from the country for these reasons are actually from established populations, so the real differences in willingness to vote between the population groups are probably a little more significant.
From a political point of view, it can be said that the growing group of non-voters is one of the reasons for the ongoing political crisis. The majority of the Israeli public, in huge numbers, defines itself as right-wing. Despite this, for three years now, the right wing on the political map has not been able to reach a sufficient number of votes to hold power for a long time. The numbers “withdrawing” from the vote do not provide the full reason for this loss, but they are probably a significant part of the picture.
After many conversations with those who do not intend to vote on November 1, their reasons range from a protest against all politicians, or indifference towards a society that is alien to them, which stems from despair and a feeling of helplessness
Their reasons for deciding to stop voting in the elections are probably many and varied, but it is quite clear what they do not include. In the discourse of political campaigns, the common call to non-voters is about trying to mock, or outrage, their decision to forgo voting. The narrative says: Please get out of your indifference, give up half an hour of standing in the sea on election day and invest a little in standing in the polling lines in favor of the political camp you belong to (usually, the right-wing camp). In our opinion, this is a significant failure in understanding the phenomenon of non-voting. These are not lazy people, but people who will not lift a finger in favor of any political camp, for the reason that they do not see themselves as belonging to any camp.
When we asked directly – why don’t you vote – we answered as follows: 52% answered that they do not believe in politicians, 45% that the situation will remain as it is in any case, 38% answered that they are tired of voting over and over again, 32% answered that no party represents them and 12% said that they are disappointed Voted from her party in the past, but do not want to vote for another party (respondents could answer several answers together). Only a few percent answered that they prefer to spend time on election day, that they are frustrated by the long lines to the polls or that they do not know where they are supposed to vote.
Will it be busy this time too? The beach in Tel Aviv on the last election day, March 2021 (Photo: Noam Rivkin Fenton, Flash 90)
We do not know whether the political parties fail to understand the deep reasons for not voting, or prefer to suppress them in the public discourse. After many conversations with those who do not intend to vote on November 1st, we would describe their reasons as submissiveness between protest against all politicians, or indifference towards a society alienated from them, which stems from despair and a sense of helplessness.
It is possible that one of the parties will be able to somehow increase the voter turnout in its stronghold until the elections, if it manages to offer them a sense of influence; But the social crisis that leads to pushing this population group out of the political game in Israel – unfortunately, even the most talented politicians, will not be resolved in a week and a half.