Time.news – Shortage of raw materials and manpower, a rising demand and a production that can’t keep up. With the consequence that i average delivery times for goods are getting longer on a global level also due to the lack of material and transport problems, thanks to the congestion of ports and a serious shortage of hauliers.
These are the causes that are putting the ‘supply chain’ in difficulty, an efficient supply system for decades that is now in trouble. Problems that inevitably they will have an impact on higher prices for consumers with the risk of a slowdown in the global economic recovery.
If in the United States and in the United Kingdom the mechanism seems to be jammed to the point of putting Thanksgiving and perhaps even Christmas into crisis – even the traditional turkey would be scarce on the tables – in Italy the risk of a lack of products there does not seem to be, but what worries is a possible increase in prices, at least according to what experts say.
Distribution put under pressure by the rise in energy prices
In Italy there is “pressure on raw materials linked to the world of energy that affects, beyond bills, also on costs for businesses and distribution” but “at the moment there are no problems with the supply of goods and we do not see any in no way, especially with regard to problems of availability of agri-food products. “This was told by Carlo Alberto Buttarelli, manager of Federdistribuzione’s research department, to the Time.news.
The association is therefore carrying out “a reflection on joint tables with the world of agricultural production, processing and distribution in order to understand the extent of some price increases to avoid passing them on to the consumer. There may be tensions over prices and business costs, we are thinking, but they will not affect the availability of products“. Christmas, therefore, asserts Buttarelli” will not be influenced from this point of view. The real problem of the holidays could instead be the resurgence of infections “.
“We have an extension of delivery times on what are the macro guidelines such as China-Europe” especially for “electronics products that are always imported and on this there may be some delay in deliveries which, however, does not mean not finding the products on the shelves but perhaps not a very wide availability “, explains to Time.news Andrea Manfron, general secretary of the Federation of Italian Road Haulers which reports to Conftrasporto-Confcommercio.
According to Manfron, “logistics models have completely changed and the logic of ‘just in time’ is being overcome: I produce to sell and transport is already functional to selling. In reality, businesses are going back and forth they are doing a little more stock. The increase in prices is one of the consequences, the transport services on average are getting longer and the costs of diesel are affecting these companies “.
The ‘carò methane weighs on the production of ammonia and’ adbluè
Expensive energy, explains Secretary General Fai, in fact affects “both production and transport, LNG trucks are the most sustainable and best performing at an environmental level. but they have a huge problem: they run on methane which costs a lot, about 2.5 times more than last year and they travel at a loss. The cost of methane has grown exponentially “and this then also affects the production of ammonia; it is no longer convenient for companies to produce because costs exceed revenues.
“All those production cycles that require ammonia go elsewhere, for example in North Africa where the cost of ammonia is still acceptable and the cost of transport from North Africa to Italy is still affordable”. The increase in the price of methane and the cost of electricity also affects the production of AdBlue.
It is a solution of urea and water which in new generation diesel engines is used to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions. AdBlue can be obtained by synthesis, directly from the ammonia production process which guarantees a product that is not harmful to cars, but involves high production costs and the use of large amounts of energy.
“Without AdBlue cars cannot circulate but it is a substance that cannot be found because it is made with ammonia which is in short supply because it is made with methane, which one goes to look for elsewhere. So, even here, the logistics chain is upset” , Manfron underlines, explaining that “the change in the search for new suppliers and new connected logistics chains in order to be able to supply is so fast that it needs balancing and time and this affects delivery times, production and consumer goods that they end up on the shelf. It will last quite a while. “
The situation in the US and the UK
Moody’s Analytics warns that supply chain disruptions “will get worse before they get better.” According to reports from the Financial Times “the UK supply chain crisis will last until at least 2023” according to the alarm raised by company leaders. “As the global economic recovery continues, what is increasingly evident is how it will be hampered by the supply chain disruptions that are unfolding,” warns Moody’s.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund lowered its US growth forecast for 2021 by one percentage point, citing supply chain disruptions and weakening consumption – which in turn it was partially driven by supply chain bottlenecks, such as the lack of new cars amid the shortage of computer chips. The United States therefore tries to run for cover. In fact, US President Joe Biden announced a bipartisan infrastructure agreement, which provides for $ 17 billion to improve infrastructure in coastal, inland and land ports, as well as waterways, in an attempt to strengthen the resilience of the the country’s supply chain.
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