Posted Oct 24, 2022, 6:44 PMUpdated on Oct 24, 2022 at 7:06 PM
Dreaded by scientists, the resumption of the epidemic this fall does not panic the counters at this stage. The epidemic rebound “remains of moderate intensity for the moment” even if its dynamic “remains to be monitored”, estimates the Committee for monitoring and anticipating health risks (Covars), in its first opinion made public on Monday.
Admittedly, after the summer break, the reopening of schools, the relaunch of professional activities, as well as the drop in temperatures, were accompanied by a rebound in contamination, notes Covars, which succeeded this summer to the Scientific Council set up at the start of the health crisis to enlighten the public authorities.
Hospital admissions could continue to increase over the next few days due to the lag between contamination and complications. But in mid-October, the occupancy rate of intensive care beds linked to Covid remained “still moderate”, at 21%.
Early signal
Above all, the reproduction rate of the virus, that is to say the average number of people that a person infected with the virus can contaminate, is currently “in slight decline”. This “could be an early signal, to be confirmed, of a slowdown in the dynamics of the current wave”, estimates the Covars.
“The effects of the start of the school year and the temperatures diminishing over time and with the current mild weather, the holidays to come should confirm this deceleration”, continues the committee.
Scientists, however, remain on their guard. The Covid still kills the frail, the oldest and immunocompromised, with an average of around 80 deaths per day in recent times. Moreover, winter temperatures, as well as the installation of a new variant of the virus, BQ.1 (replacing the currently dominant BA.5) could revive the dynamics of the epidemic.
Vaccinate in town halls
“We cannot afford to bottle up the hospitals which will be overwhelmed by the epidemic waves of winter,” warned the president of Covars, Brigitte Autran, on Monday. Undermined by the lack of medical personnel, hospitals are already struggling to withstand the shock of the early epidemic of bronchiolitis. To the point that the government promised this weekend to release emergency funds for services under tension.
Scientists do not consider it necessary to return to wearing a compulsory mask even if the authorities are encouraged to communicate on its usefulness. On the other hand, they call for amplifying the vaccination effort “in order to reach the target of 18 million eligible people within three months”. Covars recommends systematically offering an anti-Covid and anti-flu vaccination to people targeted by the recall campaign. Even if it means opening additional centers, for example in town halls.
The recall campaign is aimed at over 80s who had their last injection or their last contamination more than three months ago. It also targets people between 60 and 79 years old, six months after their last injection.
How to decipher the evolutions of our time?
Ecological transition, inflation, political crises, innovative companies… The news, sometimes brutal or stimulating, is a reflection of our evolving societies. To understand these changes, “Les Echos” is a daily working tool. Thanks to our 200 specialized journalists, we support you every day to shed light on economic, political and international news. Our surveys, analyses, chronicles and editorials are all resources made available to our subscribers to fuel their strategic thinking and help them decipher the complexity of our times.
I discover the offers