The Arab parties may be the ones who will determine the fate of the elections and probably also what the next government will look like. A new study carried out by the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and including about 510 respondents from among the Arab citizens of Israel and published today (Tuesday) claims that the voting rate of the Arab public in the elections to the 25th Knesset is expected to be 49%, slightly higher than the rate in the previous elections in March 2021 (44.6 %) and is similar to the percentage of votes in the elections held in April 2019 (49.2%).
Mandates survey: did the Smotrich tapes hurt religious Zionism?
Lapid: “Hadash-Ta’al will not sit in the government and will not be part of the coalition”
It also emerged that only Hadash-Ta’al is expected to pass the blocking percentage and receive 4.1 mandates from the Arab voters. Ra’am is teetering on the threshold of the blocking percentage with 3.7 mandates and BLD with only 3.2 mandates, below the blocking percentage. In the segment of the Jewish parties, Likud may receive 1.3 mandates from the Arab voters, on the other hand, Meretz will receive half a mandate and there is a future with only 0.3 mandates.
About a third of the Arab public (34.2%) believe that there is currently no suitable candidate for the position of Prime Minister. However, Benjamin Netanyahu is the leading candidate in the eyes of the Arab public for this position (18.6%) followed by Sami Abu Shahada (6.6%), Ahmed Tibi (6.3%), Mansur Abbas (4.8%), Yair Lapid (4.7%), Benny Gantz ( 3.2%) and Iman Odeh (3.0%).
40% believe: the situation of the Arab population following the term of the Bennett-Lapid government is worse
About half of the respondents (46.8%) believe that in order to ensure achievements for the Arab public, it is desirable for an Arab party to join any government that is formed after the elections; 15.6% reserve their agreement to join only the center-left government. On the other hand, 22.3% believe that the joining of an Arab party to the government or its support from the outside should not be agreed under any conditions.
The performance of the Bennet-Lapid government towards the Arab population is very low – especially in the economic field, in the field of personal security, and in the field of planning and construction problems. 40.9% of the survey participants believe that the situation of the Arab population following the tenure of the Bennet-Lapid government is worse than before, and 44% believe that the situation remains unchanged. Only 13% believe that there has been an improvement in the situation of the Arab population.
The head of the program, Dr. Eric Rodnitsky, emphasizes: “In stark contrast to the picture observed a month ago, when the Arab street was deeply indifferent to the elections, the current survey reflects a growing interest among Arab voters to participate in the elections. It must be taken into account that the real electoral strength of some of the parties is greater than what was measured in the survey. For example, the Hadash-Ta’al list is also expected to receive support from voters in Jewish communities, which will probably help it safely pass the threshold, while the Rem has a loyal audience of supporters – mainly in the Negev – who will rally in its favor on election day, just as happened in the previous elections which were held in March 2021. As of now, Balad is not expected to pass the blocking percentage, but there is no doubt that the party has managed to significantly increase popular support for it within a relatively short period of time, and it is in positive momentum.”
“This should be attributed to the fact that the leader of the party, Sami Abu Shahada, is esteemed by the Arab public which does not fall short of – and may even exceed – the esteem received by the leaders of the other Arab parties. On the other hand, although the Arab public’s assessment of the performance of the Bent-Lapid government is not high, it is still The majority of the public wants to see an Arab party in the coalition. Even if the Arab public is not enthusiastic about Raam’s short coalition experience, it does not rule out a similar experience in the next government,” he added.
The survey was conducted through the Yafa Institute – Marketing Research, Surveys and Consulting, under the direction of Dr. Eas Atrash. The data was collected on October 16 – 21, 2022 in a telephone survey conducted in the Arabic language among a representative sample of the adult Arab population in Israel (18 years old and older). Maximum sampling error 4.4 %.