The second round of the Brazilian presidential election will pit incumbent far-right president Jair Bolsonaro against former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday, October 30. The outcome of this election will decide, in particular, the future of a large part of the Amazon rainforest, which for years has been subjected to massive deforestation to make way, mainly, for cattle breeding and soybean fields. This is the conclusion of a study conducted by the University of Oxford, for the information site Carbon Brief.
The study is optimistic: it relies on the strict application of the forest code in the event of victory of the favorite, Lula, as he promised during the presidential campaign. Brazil is, in fact, endowed with ambitious legislation which, in theory, very firmly limits deforestation in the Amazonian forest sector. The forest code, which dates from 1934, has undergone many reforms, but Brazil has never had sufficient means to enforce it. The former president had succeeded in very significantly reducing deforestation during his previous mandates, which reached record levels when he arrived at the head of state, without however enforcing the code to the letter. His political opponent, the current president, presents a much less glorious record: between 2018 and 2021, deforestation increased by 70%, despite government promises.
The Oxford University analysis calculates the estimated deforestation should each of the presidential candidates win, in five-year increments. In case of victory of the outgoing president, it predicts 94,240 km2 of forest destroyed by 2030, compared to 18,280 km2 in case of defeat, a figure more than five times lower. More than 75,000 km2 would then be spared, an area larger than that of the Occitanie region, the third largest in France, after Guyana and New Aquitaine.