This week marks eight months since the Russian war against Ukraine. What was planned by the Russians as a quick blitz to conquer the capital city of Kyiv, plus strategic areas and the separatist provinces in the east of the country, became complicated and turned into a war of attrition. In the meantime, the war is escalating and has so far claimed tens of thousands of dead, many thousands of wounded, millions of refugees and a huge economic cost, the rate of which cannot yet be summed up. And we still haven’t addressed the global effects such as the worsening energy crisis (gas and oil), the grain and food crisis, the impact on the world’s stock exchanges and currencies, and more.
And in all the tangle of updates and interpretations, it seems that we underestimated the connection between what is happening in that war and the security interests of the State of Israel, and the way in which the war is actually in many ways right here at Israel’s doorstep and is closely related to its security.
From the point of view of the Russians, the war in Ukraine is a strategic move whose purpose is not only to annex territories that are considered to be part of Mother Russia. Another major goal is to position Russia back as an empire and restore to it the aura that was lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. In this context, during the fighting, Russia creates strategic alliances with Iran, China, Belarus and other countries, with the intention of returning to form a new axis of global power that will face the West on the one hand, and the Middle East on the other.
Meanwhile, the Russians strengthened their cooperation with Iran. The cooperation between the countries has been going on for many years, but recently there has been a significant step up and has two direct consequences for Israel.
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The first is the array of Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, as well as the array of suicide drones. These are supplied to the Russians by the Iranians in large quantities, undergo technological upgrades and participate in operational military activity on the soil of Ukraine. In practice, this is a large volume of Iranian experts and military personnel located in Russia and in the regions the occupied Ukraine, and operate the missile arrays and suicide planes.
Beyond the enormous damage caused to the Ukrainian civil infrastructure, this campaign is a wide testing ground for the Iranians. One that allows them to test the operational capabilities of the anti-aircraft missiles in their hands and carry out upgrades while fighting. These missiles and aircraft are planned to be directed towards Israel in the future. The effectiveness of the defense systems that exist in Israel against this anti-aircraft missile has not yet been tested in the reality of war, and it is a security-strategic issue that the government in Israel to give her full attention.
The second is the ever-strengthening alliance between Russia and Iran, while American dominance in the Middle East is weakening to almost complete erosion over the years. Russia already controls the land of Syria today and allows the Iranians, while turning a blind eye, to increase their activities inside Syria and to build operational and armament bases. On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Russians, with a very similar blind eye, also allow Israel to operate on Syrian soil and attack the bases that Iran is trying to build and the supply lines of ammunition to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As part of this alliance, as mentioned, Russia allows Iran the best testing ground for the missile defense it has developed, in the form of operational combat on the soil of Ukraine. It can be assumed with great certainty that the price for the missiles and drones for the Russians, Iran will collect from Russia through a long series of benefits. Whether by receiving modern fighter jets or by providing technologies and materials to advance the Iranian nuclear strategy. In such a situation, in fact, Iran will go and get stronger militarily while worsening the direct security threat to Israel thanks to its arming itself with technologies, advanced military equipment and more modern aircraft.
The other aspect of this alliance is the almost complete renouncing of the nuclear agreement that the USA and Europe are trying to sign with the Iranians. The tightening alliance is waiving the sanctions that will supposedly be imposed on Iran in the event of a violation of the agreement, and in fact its signing or not signing the agreement is irrelevant, since in any case the Iranians have an opening The possibility of armament and technological progress for nuclear strengthening in the Russian channel, with and without an agreement or sanctions from the West. This matter has a direct critical meaning for the national security of the State of Israel.
From a Russian point of view, it is a win-win situation where on the one hand it strengthens its position in the Middle East – both in Syria and Iran, it takes over territories in Ukraine and creates power bases in Europe; At the same time, it maintains an open channel with Israel while allowing the Air Force to operate on Syrian soil.
Cooperation with China gives the Russians the economic boost they need in the face of the sanctions imposed on them by the West, and it has already been announced that Russia’s economic contraction, which was predicted to be almost 10%, will shrink this year according to the “Economist” forecast by 6.2%, and next year in only 4.1%.
A breached arena
And in Israel, as always, there is no government, no policy and no strategy in the face of the growing threats. The prevailing assumption among security personnel and commentators is that Israel has good capabilities to defend itself against the threat of Iranian missiles and against the threat of suicide drones. However, this capability, as mentioned, has not yet been tested on the battlefield. Since Israeli defense systems will probably not be supplied to Ukraine, it can be assumed that their capability will also You will not be tested in the future on an operational basis.
In the absence of a clear Israeli strategy, the political and security arena on the subject remains completely open. Every Israeli leader or elected official speaks in a different voice. Some support cooperation with Russia, some advocate aid to the Ukrainians and some, as usual, support sitting on the fence and waiting for the next day. However, while Israel is not leading any national policy or strategy on the issue, Russia and Iran continue to move forward at a rapid pace to realize their political and security goals.
Here it is clear that Israel must formulate and present a clear and long-term strategy to deal with the Iranian threat, emphasizing the strengthening of the alliance with the Russians. In the meantime, Israel must make decisions regarding the degree of assistance (if any) to be given to the Ukrainians in terms of defense systems; Strengthening and building the direct countermeasures capabilities of the Iranian nuclear program; and the Israeli strategy of action against Hezbollah in Lebanon, since that is where the most significant threat of firing missiles at Israel is currently looming.
It is not impossible that Israel will have to consider transferring defense assistance to Ukraine, but one that does not reveal secret capabilities and technologies. In such a situation, Israel will transfer to the Ukrainians technologically inferior systems and also those that will not be perceived by the Russians as offensive weapons to be used against them, but on the other hand will significantly help the Ukrainians and Israel’s relations with Ukraine.
At the same time, Israel needs to maintain an open security and political channel with the Russians in order to continue freedom of action in fighting against the Iranians on Syrian soil, and of course to continue the operational intelligence warfare against Iran through the more secret channels.
It is important that the leadership in Israel, whoever it is, understand that Russia’s war in Ukraine has the day after, when the campaign will reach our doorstep.
The author is the chairman of the new People’s Council and a senior researcher at the Policy and Strategy Institute at Reichman University