Like in the first electoral round, that happened on October 3, in the second round held last Sunday The polls have been denied. All the polls published to date gave a comfortable victory, between 4 to 6 points, for Lula. However, at the moment of truth, the result was much tighter than expected and a few hours of uncertainty were experienced at night. Bolsonaro started winning and it was not until reaching 60% of the vote that Lula gave the ‘sorpasso’. In the end, the PT leader won the victory by only 1.9 points, a fact that indicates, on the one hand, the existing division in Brazilian society and, on the other, the surprising support that the discourse of reaction, classism, machismo and racism has once their representatives come to power.
In any case, the electoral map of this second round is not very different from that of a month ago. The rich south and the center-west of the Amazon he has unwaveringly supported Bolsonaro, and the north, northeast and the key state of Minas Gerais have voted for Lula. Two small northern states break this territorial logic, Amapá and Roraima, which because they are very close to the Venezuelan border have been sensitive to Bolsonaro’s anti-Chavista and anti-communist propaganda. The voter profile is also consistent with previous elections: Bolsonaro has managed to amalgamate a robust majority-male, white, high-income coalition of voters, anti-ecologist, evangelical and who welcomes the heavy hand. Lula, on the other hand, has relied on a vote that tends to be more feminine, popular, catholic, environmentalist, more liberal and respectful of diversity. But beyond Lula’s victory, it has been Bolsonaro who has made the most profit from this end of the campaign, since he managed to increase his vote by 14% compared to October 3, while his opponent only did so by 5.4. %. To this must be added almost 6 million blank and invalid votes that show the presence of a section of jaded citizens with the messianic and apocalyptic discourse of the two opposing leaders.
All in all, Lula will be the first elected president of the young Brazilian democracy to run for a third term and for that alone he deserves respect. To achieve victory, he has had to make ideological and chromatic contortions (his campaign began with red and has ended in white) and forge multiple alliances with former competitors and enemies. But this is only the beginning.
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The new president and his government, in which the broad spectrum of alliances forged in his candidacy and throughout the campaign will take shape, will not only have to face a Federal Congress and a Senate controlled by the extreme right Bolsonarista, but will have to overcome the resistance of a mostly adverse governors’ union. It is also up in the air to know what the relationship between the new Executive, the police and the Armed Forces will be. On this last point, it should be noted that, during the mandate that is ending, the authorities of the Army and the Federal Police have been co-opted by Bolsonaro. This explains one of the most reprehensible episodes of Sunday’s election day, which was the departure of the Army and the Federal Police to the streets of the northeast of the country, Lula’s fiefdom, to try to hinder circulation and normality in the exercise of the vote. . The situation that was created was so anomalous and scandalous that the same Superior Electoral Court had to intervene to demand that the acting president order the armed forces to return to their barracks and police stations.
To all this, while I write this article, neither Bolsonaro nor anyone in his circle of trust – the so-called “cabinet of hate” – has spoken. Everyone expects you to accept the results, but many fear the worst: that he does not abide by the verdict of the polls, that he disavows the Superior Electoral Court and that he carry out an operation similar to the one carried out by Trump on January 6, 2021 when he wanted to break the institutionality with an assault on the Capitol. It is necessary to be aware that until December 31, 2022, Bolsonaro will be the head of state and, Until then, Brazilian politics will be sitting on a powder keg.