1. The end of Shaked’s political career? The chairman of the Jewish Home, Ayelet Shaked, is unable to pass the threshold and a decade after her entry into politics, when she holds office, she will find herself in the next Knesset – in the House. Shaked decided to run to the end in the Jewish Home, despite the results of the polls predicting that she would not pass the threshold. For her, it was A test of strength, and in the last few days, her people claim that she was asked to continue running until the end by Likud as well because her run mainly hurt Gantz’s state camp. While Bennett chose to stay on the sidelines in this election process, the image damage as a result of Shaked’s crash will be examined later.
● From the TV models: Netanyahu supporters group with 61-62 mandates
2. Deri’s rise. Shas chairman Aryeh Deri gained significant strength in these elections, a kind of “accused” effect, after he was required to leave the Knesset in a plea deal – if Netanyahu forms the next government, Deri will soon return to the Knesset and the government after a very short period outside the Mishkan. A similar event happened in the 1999 elections, when Deri was convicted for the first time and Shas increased in the number of mandates as a reaction to the accusations against the charismatic chairman.
3. The Curse of the Treasury. The chairman of Yisrael Beitenu Avigdor Lieberman, who prevented Netanyahu from forming a government in the previous elections until he marched himself into the finance minister’s office and became the most powerful man in the Bennet-Lapid government – has weakened significantly in the polls. in the 2019 elections which led to his retirement from the political system finally.
4. Zaman Ben Gavir. It is not about the surprise of the elections but about the fulfillment of the promise that Itamar Ben Gabir made to the Israeli public. With the help of the campaigners of the left parties who made him the star of these elections, many voters on the right switched from Likud to vote for religious Zionism. This is a phenomenal success for someone who was not able to pass the blocking percentage on his own just three and a half years ago. Through regular performances in the studios and when he leans on the government’s weakness regarding the security function – Ben Gabir steps into the next government.
5. The Arab society of Nahra. In the last hours of election day, the trend of indifference in the Arab public reversed and Arab voters attended the polling stations in high percentages. This is a dramatic change that apparently saved four parties: Ra’am, Hadash-Ta’al, Havoda and Meretz from threatening the blocking percentage. Let’s recall that only a few weeks ago the percentage of votes in the sector in the polls was only 37. The success of the left parties and the organizations saved the parties – but The increase in voting percentages on the right led to Lapid and the center bloc – left a loss.
And in the last line, all the analyzes are subject to the fact that Balad will indeed remain below the percentage of blocking. If it passes the true results, the picture will be completely reversed and the Netanyahu supporters’ bloc will not reach 61 mandates.