The election committee is nearing the end of counting the ballots from the polling stations throughout the country, but the counting of the votes in the double envelopes – about 450 thousand of them – will only begin during the night (Wed). The right-wing bloc is encouraged by the data, which show a clear victory for the parties supporting Netanyahu, but can the picture still change? How many votes does Balad and Meretz need to pass the blocking percentage? Let’s check.
Currently, after counting about 86% of the votes, Likud is the largest party with 32 seats, and close to a million voters chose Mal. The second largest party is Yesh Atid with 23 mandates, which registered an increase of 7 mandates from the previous elections, an increase that probably came at the expense of Meretz and Labor.
The combination between Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir has proven itself, and the “Religious Zionist” party currently stands at 14 seats, among other things, with amazing voting figures for the party in polling stations that are considered to belong to the “soft right” – former right-wing voters. Literally doubling in most places, where many resources were invested in “religious Zionism”.
The state camp stands at 12, Shas in a huge achievement with eleven mandates and Torah Judaism at eight, in total the ultra-orthodox parties count 19 mandates. In the meantime, those who maintain their strength and stand up are Israel Beitenu with five mandates, and the Arab parties Ta’al-Hadash and Ra’am with five each as well. The Labor party is currently standing on four mandates.
Below the percentage of blocking but very close to it is Meretz, with 3.2 percent, and BLD behind it. The question of which parties will fall below the threshold of the percentage of blocking and which will pass it is the one that will decide the fate of the elections, and therefore during the next 36 hours more moments of tension are expected in both blocs As of this hour, the right-wing bloc’s victory looks very dramatic (65 seats), but according to all estimates, this figure is expected to decrease significantly in the coming hours, and the gap between the blocs in the Knesset will be much lower.
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The high figures give the Netanyahu bloc 65 mandates. His chances of winning, which are increasing as the counting of votes progresses, depend on Meretz and Ra’am remaining below the threshold. How many votes do these two parties need to pass the threshold and enter the Knesset? Quite a few.
Meretz now stands at 3.19% and lacks 24,403 votes to enter the Knesset, while Balad stands even less at 3.01% and lacks 32,217 thousand votes. The Central Election Commission informed us that there are still 685 thousand votes left to count, and the value of the mandate is 156,466 votes. That is, Meretz needs about 3.6% of the votes that are in the double envelopes.Since these votes usually go to right-wing parties or the major parties, Meretz’s chance of crossing the threshold is even smaller.
Meanwhile, in the “state camp” of Gantz and Eisenkot internalized that they are on their way to the opposition. “We respect the decision of the voters,” the party said today, “and after forming the government, we will serve as a responsible and state opposition while we continue to build the ‘state camp’ as a governing alternative.” The remarks were made after the meeting of Chairman Benny Gantz, Minister Gideon Sa’ar and Gadi Eisenkot.