TRIBUNE – While Lula has just succeeded in come back of the most improbable in world political life, Franck Tordjman gives his impressions of this fragile power and recalls a few facts which are as much at stake for the new president.
The Brazil to keep busy a place at part in the imagination the French
Fixed pays of plus of 8 million kilometers squares (i.e. 15 times France), Brazil evokes the sweetness of life, samba, football, the Amazonian forest, the carnivals of Rio and Salvador de Bahia, the beaches of Copacabana or Nordeste. But Brazil also sends back an image of poverty, that of the favelas on the outskirts of the metropolises and evokes a certain violence and recurrent economic and political difficulties.
Pays still emerging, on the other hand, its strong points are poorly situated. Regularly ranked between 10th and 8th in the world for its GDP (depending on the rankings and exchange rates used), Brazil is in reality a Powerful economic indisputable which has strong development potential.
Au premier rang world in many agricultural sectors (soya, sugar cane, orange juice, coffee…) it is also a Powerful industrial regional with a very good agri-food sector and quality productions in rubber, textiles, cosmetics, airliners and automobiles…
The discoveries recent of oil and gas have strengthened its energy mix, which was already well positioned with significant hydroelectricity production and the widespread use of ethanol for road vehicles. Now self-sufficient in energy, this country can export a significant part of its production and primarily benefits from Mercosur (the main South American free trade area).
The balance commercial from Brazil is from now on widely surplus of several billion dollars, which, coupled with a finally stable currency (the Real), should give purchasing power to this country and its inhabitants in the medium and long term.
Ces bons results were however compromise as in Europe by the Covid-19 pandemic and the return of inflation.
However, with close of 220 millions inhabitants, per capita income remains significantly lower than in developed countries and Brazil only ranks 80th in the world in terms of GDP per capitaa result unworthy of the first economy in South America (even if the southern regions appear to be much more prosperous than those in the northeast or Amazonia).
The average salary and the average income are respectively two and three times lower than in France, but the inequalities are much stronger there. Thus, the richest 1% in Brazil are richer than the richest 1% in France. The poor, conversely, are much poorer and much more numerous there. In this rich country, the poverty and extreme poverty of the Third World persist and 15% of the population, or 30 million inhabitants, live on less than one euro. per day.
The working poor are also particularly badly off with a minimum wage of 200 euros per month in this country where the prices are not derisory (50 to 80% of French prices or even sometimes as expensive as in France depending on the categories of products ).
On the other hand, the middle class lives relatively well. It now represents almost 50% of the population; the great fear of Brazilians is to be excluded in the event of a new economic or political crisis.
Back in Brazil, which I had surveyed for three months some thirty years ago during a sabbatical, here is what first struck me.
First of all, the change is from now on stable and the black currency market has now disappeared (which is not the case in Argentina where monetary problems remain recurrent).
Over the past year, the Real has appreciated against the euro, rising from 6 to 5 reals for one euro and is holding up very well against the dollar. The elections have so far changed nothing on this point.
Brazilians now favor electronic payments and even small sellers of savory or of caipirinha offer to pay for purchases with a portable terminal (including on the beach or in any small kiosk in town or in the countryside). The large-scale distribution of these payment terminals is a genius idea and a boon for the micro-tertiary sector.
All businesses accept credit cards and ours work perfectly without contact. The Brazilians thus limit the circulation of coins and banknotes (and therefore thefts). Brazilians also frequently pay directly with their mobile phones.
The use of the Internet has become widespread as it is everywhere in the world, but it allows here to improve the most varied services. It is possible to book an Uber in any city with the option to pay the ride in cash. You can reserve your parking space in the street or take an Intercités bus ticket. You can easily find a wifi in the smallest inn or in a café and almost all Brazilians live with their mobile and chat with their friends on WhatsApp, on the bus or in the metro in Rio or Sao Paulo.
If town planning has not fundamentally changed, shops and supermarkets are now numerous and as attractive as in Europe. When it comes to women’s fashion, Brazilian women have nothing to envy the rest of the world when it comes to getting ready for the beach or for the city. Brazil is also the third largest beauty market in the world. The heart of the large southern cities is modern and resembles North American metropolises.
Reverse from medal and unexpected consequence of development, a certain amount of junk food is rampant and there is now a high percentage of obese people, a paradox in this country which practices the cult of the body and beauty. This scourge did not exist thirty years ago and it does not only affect the working classes. Many obviously affluent people are overweight, much like in the United States. An overweight apparently assumed on the beach and which does not discourage bikinis. It is possible that the lifestyle and local products are unfavorable factors, since the temptations of fruit juices, cocktails or delicious kebabs are innumerable on the beaches where Brazilians love to meet up with family or friends. …
With a class mean which has therefore developed and a country which ultimately appears quite modern, the differences in living standards are even more glaring than in the past. There are still many homeless people in the big cities and it is particularly shocking to see garbage cans being sorted at night in upscale neighborhoods where they seek to recover food or recyclable objects, which they can resell by the weight of the metal.
This persistence from poverty in ce pays riche which should be prosperous is partly explained by the abandonment of the plans of Lula who was removed from power for 6 years. With his plans if family “ et « fomé zero “, Lula helped lift millions of Brazilians out of extreme poverty. There are still 30 million left and Lula was elected on this hope of a return to a more social and egalitarian policy.
However, as Teresita Dussart pointed out in a recent article, the game is not a foregone conclusion either for Lula or for Brazil. First of all, Lula will have to deal with the center and the rights, if he is not overtaken by the affairs which had removed him from power. Bolsanaro is also much less rejected in his country than he is abroad and many of his supporters find it difficult to accept his defeat. Some Brazilians indeed fear a return of corruption even though they are aware that the Bolsonairo clan is not free from criticism either. They also fear a socialist economic drift and the example of their Argentinian or Venezuelan neighbors is not meant to reassure them.
Either way, Brazil will continue on their way. This country is not a country of lawlessness and Lula enjoys a positive image in the world while that of Bolsonaro is catastrophic. When Lula was first elected, he had to apply orthodox policies and cut public spending to repay a large IMF loan. Let’s hope that he will once again be able to live up to the expectations not only of his constituents, but of the majority of Brazilians.
A minority of Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters tried to challenge the election result with means somewhat reminiscent of the French yellow vest movement (including the blocking of roads and highways). They did not lead to the country’s adhesion, were quickly called to order and the Bolsonarists elected as deputies and regional governors, rather play appeasement while waiting for a possible revenge in four years.
Finally, to end on a more touristic note, I would like to address the last point which can legitimately worry any traveler, that of violence and delinquency.
Thirty years ago, I traveled northeast to Rio with a sack over my shoulder and sailed down the Amazon in the company of garimperos, sleeping in a hammock. I had been confronted with a few bizarre situations, but felt no more violence than in Bogotá, Lima, or Chicago, the Brazilian cordiality generally allowing any misunderstanding to be settled quickly. Crime exists, it is a fact, but it does not particularly target tourists apart from thefts in tourist places
With a minimum of precaution, any traveler can discover alone, with friends or family, this magnificent country. Travel advice from our Department of Foreign Affairs is relevant and well documented. You have to follow them and, if you go to Brazil, you will be struck by the kindness, the joie de vivre and the humor of its inhabitants.
Franck Tordjman is an aggregate of universities. He has taught economics and marketing-management at the University of Paris Val-de-Marne and at the CNAM in Toulouse.