Brussels further darkened, Friday, November 11, its economic forecasts. The European Commission has revised its inflation forecast for the euro zone for 2023 sharply upwards, to 6.1%, against only 4% expected so far.
Over the whole of 2022, Brussels is also counting on a stronger than expected price increase, at 8.5%, against 7.6% previously expected. These new figures can be explained in particular by the surge in energy prices linked to the conflict in Ukraine, explains the Commission in a press release.
“Uncertainty remains exceptionally high” due to the unpredictable evolution of the war, warned the European Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, during a press conference. “The risk is mainly that of even worse figures. »
GDP at only 0.3%
Even if he anticipates a return to growth in the spring, the Brussels executive announced a recession at the end of the year. It has thus revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 sharply downwards, to only 0.3% for the countries of the euro zone, against 1.4% expected so far. “The EU, the Eurozone and most member countries are expected to plunge into recession in the last quarter of this yearpredicted the Commission. The EU is among the most affected advanced economies [par la guerre en Ukraine]due to its geographical proximity (…) and its heavy dependence on gas imports from Russia. »
“The energy crisis is eroding household purchasing power and weighing on production. Confidence indicators have fallen sharply », she further detailed. Consequently, “the expected figures for 2023 are significantly lower for growth, and higher for inflation”she noted.