Investigations are underway to determine the origin of the explosion which killed two people in Poland. NATO countries favor an incident involving a Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense missile.
The Polish army went on heightened alert this Wednesday, November 16 after the fall of a missile. The explosion, which killed two people on the national territory of one of the member countries of NATO, raised fears of a new dramatic escalation in the war in Ukraine, kyiv accusing Russia of being at the origin of this shot.
The allied countries of Ukraine, however, quickly defused the gears during the day on Wednesday. The Polish president first claimed not to hold “unequivocal proofon the origin of the deadly missile before emphasizing in the afternoon that it was “highly probable“that the missile came from the Ukrainian defense when Joe Biden judged”improbablethat the missile was launched by Russia. France, for its part, called forgreat cautionas to the origin of the missile, and the head of the Atlantic alliance Jens Stoltenberg declared on Wednesday that there is “nono indication of deliberate attack” Poland. With all the necessary precautions, what do we know so far about the explosion that killed two people in Poland?
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A loud bang
As the Polish media initially announced, an explosion took place late Tuesday in the village of Przewodow in southeastern Poland, near the border with Ukraine. “I was at home, and suddenly I heard a very loud noise. […] It was very loud, I don’t know how many decibels“, testified a resident at the microphone of several media including BFM TV. Security forces quickly blocked access to the drop point and are now forming a dam around the area. Police car sirens blare under gray, rainy skies.
In Poland, the announcement of the explosion caused a wave of intense emotion in this country marked by the painful history of the Soviet invasion of the Second World War. On the night of Tuesday to Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called “all Poles to remain calm in the face of this tragedy».
Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile?
The hypothesis of a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile trying to intercept an incoming Russian missile was more and more credible on Wednesday. This is what senior US officials told the news agency. Associated Press after the analysis of the first elements of investigation. The Belgian Defense Minister also made a statement to this effect on Wednesday morning, referring to the S-300 missile systems.
According to the first OSINT analyses, which are based on still unconfirmed images of debris, it would indeed be a missile of this Soviet-made anti-aircraft defense system. These missiles are used by Russia in a ground-to-ground offensive manner – diverted from their original function – but would not have sufficient range to reach the Polish village in question from Belarus, the closest territory from which Moscow could have launched. . The closest Russian strike to Poland was 35 km from the border also defended Moscow.
On the other hand, these missiles are also used by Ukraine for the anti-aircraft defense of the country. “If this hypothesis is accepted, the Ukrainian missile could have hit a Russian missile, however, leaving debris to fall to the ground.“, deciphers Pierre Servent, specialist in defense and strategy issues. “Another possibility is simply that the Ukrainian defense missile missed its target, and the missiles launched from the S-300 systems do not have a self-destruct system».
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Russian denial
While Zelensky reiterated his accusations on Wednesday saying the strike was “notnothing but a message from Russia to the G20 summit“, Moscow still firmly denies being at the origin of the explosion, adding that it identified the missile which fell in Poland as a projectile fired by a defense system of the kyiv forces.
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Debris found in Polandwere categorically identified by Russian specialists (…) as an element of an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-300 air defense systems of the Ukrainian Armed Forces“, he added. The Kremlin also welcomed this Wednesday “restraintof the American reaction.
Ukraine asked in parallel on Wednesday “immediate accessat the site in Poland where a missile fell the day before. “Ukraine demands immediate access to strike site for Defense and Border Guard officials“, demanded on Twitter the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiï Danilov, who said he wished “a joint review of the incident».